The Crystal Ball 2011: Jeremy Accardo

The Orioles signed Blue Jays reliever Jeremy Accardo to a one year, $1.08 million deal.

It's a bit of a head scratcher. The Orioles did not extend an arbitration offer to Matt Albers because they likely would have had to pay him $1 million for 2011. And I didn't disagree with that decision because the bottom line is that Albers just can't throw strikes. Which is what makes the Accardo signing a little strange.

Rate stats for Albers and Accardo over the past three seasons:

           K/9   BB/9   ERA+   HR/9   K/BB    WHIP   
Albers     5.8   4.3     96     0.6   1.35    1.53
Accardo    5.4   4.9     98     0.6   1.08    1.70

Granted, Accardo's rates come over far fewer innings but these stats are fairly close and Accardo's minor league numbers over that span don't show anything different.

The only thing Accardo has over Albers is that he's been a good pitcher before. It was only for the 2007 season but he was able to throw strikes. But data from four seasons ago is not exactly a sign of hope.

Accardo will probably replace Matt Albers...with all the good and bad that implies.

The Crystal Ball '11: Cesar Izturis

Cesar Izturis will be returning to Baltimore in 2011. Thankfully, he will not be the everyday option at shortstop as the Orioles inked him to a $1.5 million, one year deal. With incentives, the deal could net Izzy more than $2 mil for next season. He will serve as a utility infielder.

But just because he probably doesn't deserve a full time starting job doesn't mean he can't be a valuable asset. The asset he brings, obviously, is his glove.

For all MLB shortstops, UZR, UZR component stats and UZR/150 for the last three seasons:

Name             DPR    RngR    ErrR    UZR    UZR/150
Jimmy Rollins    1.3    10.3    12.7    24.4    10.5
J.J. Hardy      -3.5    21.3     3.5    21.4     9.1
Cesar Izturis   -1.6    14.1     8.8    21.3     8.7
Alex Gonzalez    3.4     3.1     6.4    12.8     7.0
Alexei Ramirez   1.6    11.6    -0.9    12.4     6.0
Elvis Andrus    -1.1    15.4    -2.0    12.2     6.7
Troy Tulowitzki  3.3    -4.8    11.0     9.5     3.7
Yunel Escobar   -2.6    10.8     0.9     9.1     3.4
Erick Aybar      2.1    11.3    -5.4     8.0     3.3

And the Total Zone with Location (TLZ) for all MLB shortstops for the last three season:

Name             TZL
Yunel Escobar   41.8
Cesar Izturis   30.1
J.J. Hardy      24.9
Marco Scutaro   19.9
Troy Tulowitzki 16.3
Hanley Ramirez  13.9
Jimmy Rollins   12.9
Michael Young   10.0
Edgar Renteria   7.8
Elvis Andrus     6.1

From these metrics you can see two things; first, that Izturis has been one of the top three fielding shortstops in baseball over the past three seasons. Arguably, you could rank him higher. Second, how about J. J. Hardy? He is Izzy's equal with the glove and is projected to be a league average hitter.

I'm sure Oriole fans find little comfort in Cesar's defensive wizardry since his bat is so bad. But even with the weak bat, Izturis still adds value. Not last year, when FanGraphs had him valued at -0.3 WAR but during an ordinary season, he's a valuable player.

His .545 OPS in 2010 was the lowest of his career and he still almost broke even in term of WAR when you factor in his glove. He was unlucky with his BABIP, even factoring in a slight decline in his Line Drive rate. He will never be a great hitter but even if he posts his career OPS of .618 in 2011, he could be worth 1.0 WAR as a full time player.

But fortunately, he will not be a full time player. He can fill in for an injured Hardy or Brian Roberts or be deployed against lefties versus whom he has a .639 career OPS.

He's not a difference maker by any means but Izturis and his glove should still be quite valuable in a backup role for Baltimore.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Matt Albers

Just ahead of the Thursday night deadline to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players, I thought I should take my first (and possibly last) look through the Crystal Ball at Oriole reliever Matt Albers. Before the 2010 season, I was still a supporter of Albers. I loved his stuff and thought he would eventually learn to control it. I was wrong. After a horrid April, I was the last one left to leap from the Albers bandwagon.

However, it would be wrong to think that Albers didn't do some good things over the last three seasons. Here's some of his stats from FanGraphs.com:

Season     W   L   G    IP    K/9    BB/9   HR/9   BABIP   GB%    HR/FB   ERA   FIP   xFIP
2008       3   3   28   49.0  4.78   4.04   0.73   .258   53.2 %  7.5 %   3.49  4.60  5.02
2009       3   6   56   67.0  6.58   4.84   0.40   .355   48.4 %  4.5 %   5.51  3.92  4.70
2010       5   3   62   75.2  5.83   4.04   0.71   .305   56.5 %  8.7 %   4.52  4.24  4.46

As you can see, his FIP was respectable and his xFIP was the best of his career. The ground ball rate is very good thanks to his sinking fastball. The peripherals are generally good.

However, his walk rate continues to be above 4.00 BB/9 which is not good. You need to strikeout 8 or 9 per 9 innings to make that work.

His Pitch F/X numbers show that he's added a pitch back to his repertoire. The slider.

Season  FB             SL            CB
2008    76.7% (91.1)                 22.6% (78.0) 
2009    75.1% (92.8)                 24.3% (79.2)  
2010    73.0% (92.5)   10.9% (85.6)  16.0% (79.0)

And the fact that he throws three pitches instead of two may make the difference for him going forward. Again, his fastball still pops and sinks, he gets good movement on his slider and his curve.

But he can't throw strikes. And there's no evidence that he ever will.

You can't offer Albers arbitration. You've got to cut him loose and see if you can bring him back at what he made last season, let him try to win a job in Spring Training. It's a risk and the Oriole bullpen depth isn't enough that you can just let him go without mulling it over but you can't pay him close to $1 mil to stay.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Mark Reynolds

With the arrival of Mark Reynolds to Baltimore, we looked at the drama that will accompany him. There will be 475 ft game-winning homers followed by quadruple strikeout games. Highs and lows like Mt. Everest and Death Valley. Watching Reynolds in an Oriole uniform is going to be like dating the crazy bad girl who you know is bad for you. But she's fantastic in bed so you put up with it and you're happy...until she torches all your clothes.

But now we must look a little closer about the kind of player he is. On the surface, he hit .198 and struck out 211 times. So he must be a huge out machine, right? Well, kind of...

Leaders in outs made last season, with less than 625 plate appearances.

                      Outs
1. Carlos Lee         479
2. Jose Lopez         473
3. Alex Gonzalez      464
4. Ty Wigginton       461
5. Vernon Wells       451
6. Ryan Theriot       450
.
.
.
38. Ryan Howard       413
39. Lyle Overbay      413
40. Mark Reynolds     412
41. Michael Bourn     411
42. Carlos Gonzalez   407

Even is a very down year, Reynolds trails a bunch of people. Why? Because even though he strikes out a ton, he can take a walk. Best walk rates in the majors last season:

               BB%
Barton        16.0
Fielder       16.0
Pena          14.9
Pujols        14.7
Bautista      14.6
Heyward       14.6
Zobrist       14.0
Votto         14.0
Reynolds      13.9

In addition, he has a bit of speed for a big guy. He only grounded into 8 double plays last season. Yes, some of that is a function of all the strikeouts he piles up but he stole 24 bases in 2009 and 7 last season. This is not to suggest that he is a good base stealer, just that he has pretty good footspeed for a guy who goes 6'2" and 220 lbs.

Something else he brings to the table in his glove. Talking to Diamondback fans, they are quick to point out that Reynolds was primarily a shortstop in the minors, as recently as 2006. His 2007-2009 fielding numbers are pretty brutal but they steadily improved and he was able to post a UZR/150 of +2.5 for 2010. It could be that Arizona had to live with his learning curve and that Reynolds will be an average MLB third baseman with the glove. Maybe better. Regardless, he is assured of being better than the Miguel Tejada/Josh Bell combo the team had last season.

As far as a projection, I have no idea how Reynolds will fare with a move from the NL West to the AL East. You would have to think he will hit 30+ homers and slug north of .500. But he's coming from a pretty good offensive park in Arizona so Camden Yards will not give him much of a boost with his numbers, if any. He's going to be facing tougher pitching, pitchers who may be able to exploit his offensive weaknesses better but it wasn't like the guy was facing chumps in his old division. Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jiminez, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, Mat Latos, Jonathan Sanchez and, oh yeah, Tim Lincecum. Maybe the change in leagues won't impact him as much as we think.

Most projection systems are projecting a mild rebound. Even if he hits .235, thats going to give us some pretty good offensive production from the hot corner. I'm cautiously optimistic that he can do it.

The Crystal Ball '10: Luke Scott

Now that Miguel Tejada has returned to the Orioles, there has been a lot of talk that he will be the de facto clean up hitter. But this isn't 2004. Tejada is not a slugger anymore. But Luke Scott is.

While batting orders are overrated in general, the classic wisdom wants your most powerful hitter in the clean up spot. The most powerful hitter on the Oriole roster is Luke Scott. He led the team in slugging in 2009 and if not for Aubrey Huff's career season and Mora's last gasp of baseball life in 2008, he would have led the team in slugging in 2008 too.

But he has posted an ISO (you know how I love ISO) north of .200 for the past two seasons and no other player on the roster has done that. If fact, since 2005 Scott has an ISO of .231, tied with Matt Holliday and ahead of hitters like Adrian Gonzalez, Dan Uggla, Vlad Guerrero and Curtis Granderson. He is an excellent power hitter and just on the cusp of levels that could be called elite (he's 26th since 2005...). Raw power? Scott's got plenty of it.

But for all the power he displays, Scott has hit cleanup only a handful of times since joining the team. For 2008, I can understand it as Huff was on fire and slugging .522. But last year? Only 8 games as the cleanup hitter. Scott is a flawed hitter. But he has the most important attribute for a guy hitting #4 in your lineup. Raw power.

A sample lineup:

1.  Brian Roberts

2.  Nick Markakis

3.  Adam Jones

4.  Luke Scott

5. Nolan Reimold

6. Matt Wieters

7. Miguel Tejada

8. Garret Atkins

9. Cesar Izturis

Who else is a better option? As they stand now, only Scott is a real threat to slug .500 and ISO north of .200. There's no reason not to plug him in and let him drive those runners in. So let's give him a shot and watch him rack up the RBI.

Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Miguel Tejada

I was going to do a Crystal Ball on Ty Wigginton this week. That seems like a waste of time now.

Break out your old Tejada jersey. You know you still have it.

Since every one else has weighed in on this deal over the weekend, I guess I will too. I am on record that I saw no need to bring in anybody else to play third base this season. I thought there were internal options that could have held down the fort until top 3B prospect Josh Bell was ready to take over sometime this season. But if they were going to pick someone up , I suppose that Miguel Tejada was the most complete third baseman left on the market. He can still hit a little and he should be able to play above average defense. It's not a bunch of money and it's only for one season. There is no bad 1-year contract really, the money isn't bad and if Bell is really, really ready, the team won't let Tejada won't block him.

Tejada had a .313/.340/.455 line (14 HR, 46 2B) for Houston last year which gives him a .799 OPS, very close to what he had for Baltimore in 2007. That's a pretty good bat for a shortstop, not so much for a third baseman. Coming back to the stronger league, CHONE projects him at .767 OPS which seems reasonable. That production would have put him squarely in the middle of all MLB third baseman and light years ahead of Melvin Mora's .679 OPS from a year ago. Tejada will hit in the .290-.300 range, hit double digit homers and 30+ doubles. And in case you forgot, he'll swing at anything loosely near the plate.

How will the glove play? Last year, Tejada was one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball according to UZR and no team was looking to sign him as a shortstop for 2010. His range is diminished and his strong arm is still occasionally erratic. I would guess that he will not embarrass himself at third but I don't think he will be even average.

Was he worth bringing back to Baltimore? It depends on your goal. He will improve the team for 2010. I just hope that The Warehouse keeps its eye on the ball and trades Tejada if Josh Bell starts destroying the International League.


Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Nolan Reimold

Nolan Reimold was not supposed to be in Baltimore in 2009.

Injuries had limited his 2007 campaign to 53 games and in 2008 he was going to have to repeat AA. Baltimore seemed a long way off.

But Reimold got back on track as he put in a full healthy season in Bowie posting a .284/.367/.501 in 2008. Norfolk was in his sights but few expected him in Baltimore until September.  Reimold changed all that by destroying International League pitching to the tune of a .384/.485/.743 line in 31 games for Norfolk. His hot bat and untimely injuries to Adam Jones and Luke Scott garnered Reimold a recall in mid-May. His .279/.365/.466 line (including 15 homers) in Baltimore made sure he stayed. He was a breath of fresh air in left field given the crew that manned that position in the pre-Luke Scott era.

I was a little surprised that he got on base and slugged as well as he did since he was less than a year removed from AA but given his minor league track record maybe I shouldn't have been. All he has done in the minors is get on base (.383 OBP in minor league career) and hit for power (.522 SLG in the minors).

If he can play all season, he should OPS north of .850 with 25 home runs. The only Achilles' Heel is...his Achilles Tendon. Reimold had a surgery for an Achilles tendon tear in the offseason and although he indicated at the Sarasota FanFest that he would be ready for 2010, Roch Kubatko reported last week that:

Nolan Reimold isn't certain that he'll be full-go when he reports to spring training next month. He still hasn't done any sprints since undergoing surgery on his left Achilles on Sept. 23.

Achilles tendon injuries are tricky and they can take longer to fully heal than you might expect. Acceleration is the enemy of a healing Achilles and it is a bit odd that Dave Trembley seems to be assuming that Reimold will be able to play left field from day one.

So, it boils down to health. If Reimold is fully recovered from the surgery, we can expect big things. If not, we always have Felix Pie and Luke Scott on the roster.


Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Adam Jones

According to Baseball-Reference.com, these are the four most similiar batter to Adam Jones through the age of 23:

Corey Patterson 
Junior Felix
Carlos Beltran
Dave Winfield

Now that's a wide range of future outcomes.

But unlike most of these players, Jones has steadily improved at the plate in each full season. Only Dave Winfield can make the same claim.

Some key stats:

Adam Jones

            AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   BB%   K%    ISO  
2007       .246  .300  .400  .700   5.8  32.3  .154
2008       .270  .311  .400  .711   4.6  22.6  .130
2009       .277  .335  .457  .792   7.1  19.7  .180

Those are great signs for the future. Not only are his traditional stats getting better, his peripheral stats are heading in the right direction too. That means the production is no fluke.

On top of all of this, he's a damn good centerfielder. In terms of UZR, he wasn't the best centerfielder in the American League and based on last year alone he probably wasn't deserving of the Gold Glove that he won. But over the last two years I believe he is the best centerfielder in the AL and maybe even in all of baseball.

Many Oriole fans want to mortgage the farm to get Adrian Gonzalez away from the Padres and given the surplus of outfielders in Baltimore and the fact that Jones is from San Diego, Jones would probably be included in any package that brings Gonzalez east. But I think that Jones has a very good chance to be just as good a hitter as Gonzalez in two or three years. His power was very good at age 23 and you could project him to hit 25-30 home runs by the age of 27.

He's a special talent but I am a bit hesitant to predict another quantum leap forward at the plate like last year. Look for a .282/.340/.465 line from Jones and hopefully a fully healthy season.

The Crystal Ball '10: Cesar Izturis

To go against the grain, I was going to take a closer look at Cesar Izturis' offensive game and try to come up with something of a silver lining to the dark cloud that is Izturis' bat.

As you might expect, I came up pretty dry on that front.

One thing that is encouraging though, is that after a rash of injuries to his hamstrings over the years, Izturis seems to have regained some of his speed. 8.2% of his hits were infield hits, he stole 12 bases in 114 games and a full 33% of his bunts attempts went for hits. The wheels are back and you'd like to think that if not for an appendectimy mid-season that he he would have stolen 20 bases.

Beyond that, there is no trend that points to any noticable change in Izturis' offensive output one way or another. He is a free-swinging, light-hitting, shortstop who adds little besides decent speed to the lineup.

So it's a good thing that he is possibly the best shortstop glove in the Majors.

Only the Cards' Brendan Ryan added more WAR with their glove than Izturis. Forgetting that Derek Jeter got the award for a second, Izturis turned in Gold Glove caliber defense by any metric you want to use. In fact, over the last two seasons Izturis has posted a 12.7 UZR/150 which leads the majors, well above the next guy (Jimmy Rollins at 8.8).

Besides, these young pitchers will need a guy like Izturis behind them this year. Forget about a reliable closer, a slick-fielding shortstop will do wonders for the psyche of a young pitcher battling for wins. Expect that support from Izturis and expect some timely stolen bases but anything he does at the plate will obviously be gravy. Izturis brings considerable value with the glove but that is all.


Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Nick Markakis

I predicted big things for Nick Markakis last year. I was sure that all signs pointed to a breakout season. Alas, Nick could not even take a small step forward as his OBP fell off the table, his offensive production took a significant step backwards and he destroyed all my predictions that "Markakis is the Second Coming of Enos Slaughter" in one fell swoop.

So maybe Nick is not destined for superstardom but I refuse to believe that he will be as pedestrian as he was last season. Even if his best career comparison went from Enos Slaughter to Ellis Valentine in one season.

Before we start, let's partake in an annual tradition here at Dempsey's Army. Here's the 2009 Nick Markakis hit chart for OPACY:

It's a beauty. But even though Nick still hits to all fields, I always thought he would develop a bit more power and become a prototypical #3 hitter. Instead, his skill set may be better suited to the #2 hitter role, especially with guys like Nolan Reimold and Adam Jones emerging as more powerful and well-rounded hitters. I do not usually subscribe to the notion of batting order affecting offensive production but there can be a bit of a psychological effect for the hitter. It stands to reason that some hitters change their approach based on their spot in the order. A #3 hitter may feel like they need to swing away more to drive in runs while that same hitter may work the count more to get on base and set the table if they are slotted #2 in the lineup. To that end, Nick's career splits for batting order positions:

 

              AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS    OPS+
2nd          .328   .411   .545   .957    128
3rd          .286   .358   .457   .815     95
 
 

That's 586 plate appearances batting second and 1517 PA's batting third. It's a decent sample. Maybe Nick just hits better in the 2 hole? I think it's worth a try to plug him in there and leave him alone. It certainly couldn't hurt to have the team's two best baserunners at the top of the order.

And I still think Markakis is due for a breakout season. But maybe not in 2010. I am going with a .305/.369/.481 line. That will get him back in the .850 OPS range and who knows? Plug him in as the #2 hitter and maybe he reaches the heights I predicted for him in 2009.

Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Brian Roberts

There was nothing more irritating, in a season where Brian Roberts was having a record-setting year for hitting doubles, to listen to people snipe at Roberts for not hustling on the bases. Where were the triples? Only one? He's just stopping at second to pad his stats, right?

Hear this people...Roberts was a 31-year-old second baseman and speed is a vital component of his game. He's slowing down. He knows this and being the smart baserunner that he is, he will not risk getting thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple.

But he is still a great baserunner. He stole 30 bases and only was caught 7 times, good for a spectacular 81% success rate. And to anyone who thinks he wasn't hustling...he stole third 14 times in 2009, more than any other American League player and was not caught once! No hustle?!?!

Anyway, enough of that rant.

The reality is that Roberts will be 32 in 2010 and as I said in last year's Crystal Ball, second baseman with Roberts' profile do not age well and you can start to see signs of that decline. While he remains a good baserunner, the stolen base total have dropped for three seasons (50, 40, 30) as has his defense in terms of UZR (5.8, -1.5, -0.9, -8.9). UZR does fluctuate but his UZR was bad enough last year to drop him from a WAR north of 4 to 3.4 in 2009. That's still nothing to sneeze at...but I have to admit it's troubling.

So what's the best thing Roberts could do at the plate to continue to add value? Keep stroking doubles, keep stealing bases smartly and get that OBP back up above .370. It dropped to .356 and as the wheels start to slow, he needs to draw a few more walks to remain a serious threat on the bases.

Enjoy him while he lasts. Roberts is a uniquely gifted hitter for a second baseman and the smartest baserunner I've ever seen. But I can't shake the feeling that we are witnessing the beginnings of a (hopefully) slow decline.

Realistically, I'm sticking with the CHONE projection of .278/.358/.427 line with a 3.3 WAR. Not bad, just not the level of greatness we got used to.

Photo by Phil Romans and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Matt Wieters

I was at MASN's Blogger Night at Camden Yards the night that the decision to call Matt Wieters up to Baltimore was announced. The mood was electric. It is rare, in these dozen years of losing, to see that kind of excitement among Oriole fans and it was easy to see the crushing expectations that were placed on the shoulders of the young catcher.

Many fans were disappointed in Wieters 2009 debut and many national baseball writers are significantly lowering expectations.

Did those expectations get to him? Maybe but I doubt it. It may seem like Wieters marched through the minor leagues like a hot knife through butter but the reality is that at each level he struggled for a time, then destroyed the league. Outside of A+ Frederick, he has to make adjustments at every level.

I predicted it would take Wieters a full two months of games to adjust to major league pitching.

                      G    AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS    HR
May 29th-July 28th    39   .273   .322   .388   .711     3
July 29th - EOS       57   .298   .352   .428   .780     6  

Those end of the season numbers include a torrid September/October where Wieters hit .333/.395/.486 with 4 homers.

Wieters was just short of being a league average hitter (97 OPS+) and as an American League catcher that was good enough for the third-best hitting catcher in the league. Not bad for a rookie.

So enormous expectations aside, it was a very solid rookie season for Matt Wieters. His defense improved as well and projections show that he will be above average in blocking pitches and by the end of the season his Caught Stealing numbers were right around average for a catcher not named Laird.

And the fact that he improved as the season went along gives me hope that he's making the necessary adjustments to succeed in the majors. I expect big thing from Wieters in 2009. Look, he OPS'ed 1.014 in the minors, I think it's doubtful that his power just disappeared. Besides, 5 of his 9 homers were to the opposite field. He even hit a homer off of Chad Bradford! You know how hard that is? Big power in that bat.

If you've seen my WAR projections, you know I expect Wieters to OPS .825 in his sophomore season with a chance for a quantum leap to even more. Relax, Orioles fans. our savior is here.

*Keith Law photo courtesy of Matt Wieters Facts

The Crystal Ball '10: Kevin Millwood

I've covered the Millwood trade a bit before but I thought we needed to take a closer look at what to really expect from Mr. Millwood the Oriole. First, the projections:

IP      ERA    K    BB
CHONE         177.0   4.83   112   64     
Bill James    175.0   4.37   126   55
B.P.          143.3   5.19   100   46 
 

I think that Millwood has to pitch for a league average ERA (or approaching it) and at least 180 innings to be really useful for the Orioles in 2010. That means somewhere between a 4.60 and a 4.70 ERA. From the above projections, Millwood is, at best, at the high end of the ERA and at the low end of the innings pitched.

The good news is that Millwood is leaving The Ballpark at Arlington. Camden Yards is a homer haven but on the whole has been a neutral hitting environment for three straight seasons. The Rangers' stadium is even more homer-prone than OPACY and is a much better hitter's park overall. Millwood may be able to take advantage of pitching is a better environment in 2010.

What is more difficult to tell is how much help Millwood will need or get from the defense behind him. The strikeout rate dropped last year and he's a flyball pitcher, (although not an extreme one) so there's going to be a lot of balls put in play. A Markakis/Jones/Reimold/Pie outfield should be plenty busy but have the potential to help Millwood a lot. Izturis is top notch at short and Roberts is still passable at second. When we know who will hold down third and first base in 2010 we will know a bit more.

If his health holds, Millwood should be a good bet to approach league average and pitch north of 175 innings which would have made him one of the better pitchers in the O's rotation in '09. It's certainly a risk but it's short term risk If he pitches well enough to keep Jake Arrieta in AAA and Jason Berken and David Hernandez in the bullpen, it will be worth it.

The Crystal Ball '10: Brad Bergesen

To me, there was no more puzzling development during the 2009 season than the adoration among writer's and scouts of Tigers rookie pitcher Rick Porcello and the utter dismissal of Oriole rookie pitcher Brad Bergesen. Why?

                 ERA    WHIP    K/9   BB/9   K/BB
Porcello '09    3.96    1.34    4.7    2.7   1.71
Bergesen '09    3.43    1.28    4.7    2.3   2.03

If anything, Bergesen was the slightly better version of the same pitcher. Maybe because Porcello is 20 and Bergesen is 23? Perhaps but I think Bergesen is just overlooked.

But maybe he was just lucky. Let's check the BABIP for Bergesen. Hmmm....it comes in at .289. According to Baseball Prospectus, an average BABIP is about .290. So he wasn't particularly lucky either.

Is it the heat? Porcello throws his fastball at 91 mph on average, Bergesen only hits 89 mph. That could be an issue going forward.

But guys like Bergesen can and do success in the majors. Bergesen compares favorably to a buy like Mark Buehrle and pitchers of the past like Bob Tewksbury. He won't be an ace but he could be a solid #4 starter for years to come. Absolutely nothing wrong with that.

In addition, he is an outstanding fielder. I was reading The Bill James Handbook and he was considered the second best fielding pitcher in the American League (behind Mark Buehrle). Any little bit helps.

One word of caution...that leg injury. Guys like Bergesen have no margin for error. They need a repeatable delivery to locate their pitches and deceive the opposition because they have such marginal stuff. Chien-Ming Wang never came back from his foot injury the same pitcher. We can only hope that Brad fully recovers and can regain his form in Spring Training.

My prediciton: a sub-4.00 ERA, a walk rate very close to 2.00 BB/9, a K/9 over 5.00 and 180 innings pitched.

If he can recover from his injury, I think he's for real.