Around the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: New Faces, New Places Edition

Former Oriole play-by-play announcer Jon Miller has been dismissed from his spot on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball, along with color analyst Joe Morgan. Miller is still a superb radio announcer but over the past few years I though his performances on TV had become gimmicky and "Bermanesque", for lack of a better term. Miller will continue his work for the San Francisco Giants and ESPN has left the door open for him to continue calling Sunday night games on the radio.

It's never too late to start looking forward to Spring Training. Roar from 34 posts some pictures of the renovations to Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Spring Training home of the Orioles.

Dave Trembley has accepted a position as a minor league instructor with the Atlanta Braves. Glad to see Trembley, a nice guy if not a good manager, land on his feet in a good organization.

Along with all the changes to the seats at Oriole park this offseason, the Orioles will also be changing concessionaires. The club has severed ties with Aramark and entered into an agreement with Delaware North. Delaware North handles concessions at Turner Field in Atlanta and those are pretty good.

Stacy at Camden Chat makes a compelling case that Matt Wieters was snubbed for a Gold Glove this season. Beyond the Boxscore releases their catcher defense rankings and backs up Stacy's claim by ranking Wieters the best defensive catcher in the AL and the fourth best in all of baseball. Measuring catcher defense is am inexact science but I know this: an award for defense that is given 5 times to Derek Jeter and just twice to Cal Ripken, Jr. is an award so cheapened and flawed that I hardly care anymore.

Pressbox Online has a positive article on former Oriole GM Roland Hemond that they wanted me to pass along. But every time I think of Roland Hemond, I remember how he blamed Ben McDonald's contract negotiations for costing the Orioles the 1989 AL East crown. And then I think he's a bloviating douche bag.

Dan at Camden Crazies delves into Brad Bergesen's 2010 season and explains why it was a tale of two pitchers.

Brad Bergesen Revisited

Always one to beat a dead horse, I'm revisiting my Brad Bergesen-is-Rick Porcello meme. From last December, a quick statistical comparison of their 2009 seasons:

                 ERA    WHIP    K/9   BB/9   K/BB
Porcello '09    3.96    1.34    4.7    2.7   1.71
Bergesen '09    3.43    1.28    4.7    2.3   2.03

Now, I preface all of the following with this: Bergesen is three years older than Rick Porcello. But their stuff was not appreciably different and their results in terms of peripherals were not either.

But Porcello was lauded as a top prospect and almost universally praised. Bergesen was marginalized for his fluky performance. I figured the truth was probably somewhere in between for both of them.

Their careers remain linked (at least in my mind) in 2010.

So far in 2010:

                 ERA    WHIP    K/9   BB/9   K/BB
Porcello '10    5.74    1.56    4.6    2.6   1.73
Bergesen '10    5.84    1.53    4.0    2.7   1.48 

Both have struggled during their sophomore seasons. Both have had to return to AAA for some part of 2010. And both have come back down to Earth from 2009 results that outperformed their peripherals.

Now the good news is this; not only has Bergesen been a little unlucky up to this point, he seems to have finally gotten back in the groove after missing the last 2 months of 2009 with an injury.

Bergey's xFIP is 5.10. His BABIP is .311, a tad high. But the good thing is that he is trending the right way. For July and August, his K/BB ration is nearly 3.00, the GB% is right at 45%, a K rate north of 5 per 9 and his walks are down to 2 per 9.

I always thought that Bergesen could survive if he was getting more than 5.0 K/9 because of his very low walk rate and good ground ball rate. He's been doing that and more since the beginning of July.

Arbitrary endpoints? Perhaps. But I have always maintained that control pitchers with marginal stuff are hurt more by injuries and layoffs than most pitchers because so much of their success (and control) depends on a repeatable delivery. It looks like Bergesen may finally be getting his groove back after battling a bruised shin last season and a sore shoulder in the offseason.

And he may be part of the Orioles' plans after all.

The Norfolk Shuffle

Saw this in the Baltimore Sun's Orioles Insider blog from Jeff Zrebiec this morning:

It was pretty obvious watching Josh Bell the past two games that the young third baseman is really pressing in an effort to make a good impression. He was tentative defensively and too anxious offensively, and he’s clearly putting a lot of pressure on himself. After Sunday’s game, in which he hit into a double play with the bases loaded and no outs in the sixth, Bell sat in front of his locker with his head down. Bell has made a really good impression in the clubhouse because he listens and observes, keeps largely to himself and goes about his business. The veterans have noticed. Now, hopefully they can get him to relax and not play every night like it’s a tryout and he needs to prove his status as the everyday third baseman.


Gee, I wonder why Bell might feel like every game is a tryout?

You may as well paint Hwy. 17 orange and black with all the movement between Baltimore and Norfolk with young players this season. Bell has made the trip 5 times in a little over a month all by himself. Brad Bergesen has made 4 trips. Chris Tillman has made 6.

My gut has told me that yanking these guys back and forth due to performance has to be messing with their confidence a bit. Bell's mindset certainly supports that theory. I mean, if you can't start for the Orioles, how good are you really? It's got to be messing with these guys' heads, even if they are just reacting to what happens to their teammates.

You could make the argument that Bell wasn't totally ready for the callup. (Although, on a team as brutally bad as Baltimore, the argument could be made that you aren't worried about "wasting:" AB's on a kid who may struggle initially...it's not going to matter in the standings.) But Tillman? He's done everything he needs to in AAA. The O's sent the kid down to work on a pitch at the beginning of the season. Fine. But he's been jerked around ever since. At some point, you have to let the guy take his lumps and try to get better. Again, it's not as if Baltimore will be frittering away a playoff run with Tillman on the mound.

The lack of development from the prospects at the Major League level has been very disturbing. Hopefully, with Buck Showalter at the helm, the kids will be given instruction and patience instead of quick hooks, shifting roles and Greyhound ticket to Harbor Park.

Around the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Future Watch Edition

Baltimore Sports Report has a video interview with Orioles 2B prospect LJ Hoes.

Camden Crazies looks at the merits of Jake Fox and concludes that he would be a significant upgrade from Garrett Atkins. I agree.

Dean Hybl of BaseballReflections.com ponders if Brad Bergesen could be the next Jim Palmer. Not likely but Dean does remind us of the circuitous route many players take to success.

Weaver's Tantrum takes a look at the company the 2010 Orioles are keeping: the 1988 Orioles and the 1962 Mets.

Roar from 34 wonders if the "Baltimore" on the front of the road jerseys has been replaced with another term. (All you jerks who whined and bitched about getting "Baltimore" back on the jerseys can stick it. It hasn't mattered one iota in how the team is perceived. I'm looking at you WNST.)

Oriole Insider reports that the team has contacted Buck Showalter regarding their managerial vacancy.

Eutaw Street Hooligans call for a reality check among O's fans and they are correct...just not sure a guy who blogs about this team can take their advice.

A bit of Spring Training News:

Circuit Judge Bob Bennett ruled Wednesday that construction can continue at Ed Smith Stadium, dealing the first courtroom defeat to two citizens groups trying to stop a taxpayer-financed renovation of the ballpark....



"Outstanding," Orioles attorney Alan Rifkin whispered in court as the judge ruled.

Can we add this to the Oriole win column?

Bergey Back to Bush Leagues

So there was this press release:

ORIOLES OPTION RHP BRAD BERGESEN TO TRIPLE-A NORFOLK


The Orioles have announced that RHP BRAD BERGESEN has been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk. Bergesen was 3-4 with a 6.50 ERA (54.0IP, 39ER) in 12 games (10 starts) for the Orioles this season.

A corresponding move will be announced tomorrow. 


Well, I hate to say I told you so but...I told you so.

...why would Bergesen go to Norfolk for a single start and come back to Baltimore? One solid start against AAA hitters is not enough for me to regain confidence. If you're going to use his option under the premise that he needed to work on his sinker and control, I sincerely doubt that he put everything together in one start. At least three would be my preference.

These are the kinds of things that bother me about this team. The losing sucks and the young players' struggles are concerning but ultimately these things can happen with a team in rebuilding mode. It doesn't always happen on schedule.

But wasting an option on a guy for one AAA start? It just doesn't make sense. Now you've used two options on a guy who may eventually be useful to the big league club. Who really thought that Bergey was all straightened out after one start?

Maybe they think Bergesen is no longer a big league pitcher. Maybe. But they did this with Matt Albers too and now he has no options left, probably the only reason he's still on the big league roster. For some reason, the Orioles seem afraid that someone will claim Albers if they try to get him to Norfolk. But they no longer have the luxury of Albers going to AAA to work out his control, a new pitch or something of that ilk.

If this is how cavalier they are about player options, what else are they not paying close attention to?

And that's when I get nervous.

Bullpen Management in Microcosm

Last night, Dave Trembley let Brad Bergesen work into the 8th. After two straight singles, he lifted Brad Bergesen for Jason Berken. Here's what happened next:

"I don't think the pitch count enters into it," Trembley said of removing Bergesen. "He had retired that many, he had a long inning to sit after the seventh. You certainly don't want to put him in a situation where he's going to lose the game. He's pitched so well."

Right-hander Jason Berken entered and immediately picked up a flyout. Trembley then replaced Berken with left-hander Hendrickson to face consecutive left-handed hitters, Daric Barton and Ryan Sweeney...

"I think you're going to go left vs. left there. I think that's really what you're going to do," Trembley said. "Berken hasn't faced these guys a lot. Their two best hitters are their two lefties right there. … Berken's a fly-ball pitcher. You don't want Berken to give up a home run there. He's never been in that situation before. Hendrickson has. He did a nice job the other night in the same role. That's the decision that was made."

What followed was a debacle as Hendrickson and Cla Meredith combined to blow a 5-2 lead and the Orioles lost the game.

Lifting Bergesen after the two singles? OK. You can second guess that but if Bergey gives up a three-run homer to the next batter, Trembley's getting crucified. And to some extent, I understand that Trembley is trying to limit the psychic damage to a young pitcher. That decision is fine.

But lifting Berken after one batter faced? Berken is your "long man" and, outside of Will Ohman, your most consistent performer out of the pen in 2010. He can certainly give you an inning. He's been sitting on the bench for 7 days...he's well rested. You could also make the argument that you put Berken out there for the two inning save and rest everybody else. And everybody else needs it.

But this would only be a blip if it was one game. Unfortunately, Trembley has been managing this way all season.

Will Ohman is on pace for 84 appearances, Matt Albers, 74 and Cla Meredith, 73. These are not Perlozzian levels of bullpen mismanagement but they are getting close. Meanwhile, Berken has just 12 appearances and we're closing in on Memorial Day. Why not let Berken pitch a little?

This is not how Trembley has managed his bullpens in the past. The work was a bit more evenly spread. I think the losing is messing with his head.

So it's probably time for him to go.

(As an aside, Brad Bergesen has been much improved since his return from Norfolk. 3-1, 4.26 ERA, averaging more than 6 innings a start. OK, 10 walks vs. 8 strikeouts is not good but when you are getting grounders on 67% of your balls put in play, you're certainly going to be in decent shape. This style isn't going to win you any Cy Young awards but Bergesen still looks like a fine back of the rotation starter to me.)

Brad Bergesen Returning From Norfolk? Slow Down...

Brad Bergesen makes his first, and perhaps only start for Triple-A Norfolk tomorrow. A quality outing could lead him back to the Orioles and that May 1 start against the Red Sox at Camden Yards. - Roch Kubatko

Brad Bergesen wins in his first (maybe only?) start at Triple-A Norfolk. - Baltimore Sun Sports Twitter Account

Sunday, (Bergesen) went 7.0 and gave up just 2 ER...He should have May 1 circled on his calendar as his return to the Orioles as a starter and a bus ticket to Baltimore in hand. - Camden Chat

Do these guys know something I don't?

And do they remember how horrible Bergesen looked in his three major league starts?

So why would Bergesen go to Norfolk for a single start and come back to Baltimore? One solid start against AAA hitters is not enough for me to regain confidence. If you're going to use his option under the premise that he needed to work on his sinker and control, I sincerely doubt that he put everything together in one start. At least three would be my preference.

Besides, he's not the only option. Jason Berken can make a couple of spot starts (on May 1st and the 6th) or he could even split those two starts with Mark Hendrickson. After that, the Orioles wouldn't need their 5th starter until May 16th. If Bergesen is still mowing down the International League, bring him up then.

Or...give Jake Arrieta the call. Jake's line from AAA this season:

           IP    K   BB   HR    ERA   WHIP
Arrieta   25.0  23   10    0   0.36   0.92
 
 

In addition, he is inducing a 53.7% groundball rate and has only given up 4 extra base hits this season. (By the way, Bergesen gave up 3 extra base hits, including a home run, for Norfolk on Sunday) Arrieta now has 21 starts in AAA and, even with some initial struggles after his promotion last year, has a 3.16 ERA over those starts. If you're going to pull the trigger and call someone up from Norfolk, Arrieta's the man...and Bergesen's start wasn't as sparkling as it looks in the boxscore.


When it comes to Jake Arrieta, Baseball Prospectus agrees. (subscription)

Is It Over For Brad Bergesen?

Last September, I wrote this about Brad Bergesen:

I was watching as the line drive rocketed off his leg and he limped, hopped, stumbled and ultimately collapsed in the tunnel heading toward the locker room. I figured that he would not be back at that moment...damn Oriole luck. And although I am generally an optimist, consider this; an unconventional control pitcher like Bergesen needs everything to go right for him to have success and a lot of that comes from a repeatable delivery. Chien-Ming Wang was one of the best pitchers in the AL for a couple seasons, hurt his leg and was never the same. Cross you fingers for Mr. Bergesen.

That layoff from pitching due to his injury has affected Bergesen more than even I imagined. He and Rick Krantz both admit that his sinker won't sink, he is struggling with his control and getting lit up.

Jeff Zrebiec reports that Bergesen is likely headed for Norfolk which is probably for the best right now. He needs to get his delivery down again is he hopes to survive in the majors.

Look for Jason Berken or Jake Arrieta to join the rotation soon.

edit: Zrebiec is reporting that Bergesen will report to Norfolk, Alberto Castillo is being recalled and the team will go with 4 starters fof the time being.

Delving into Brad Bergesen...Again

This past Friday, MASN's Steve Melewski had a post about Brad Bergesen and how his fine performance is at odds with modern statistical assessment. In particular, he references a FanGraphs article about Bergesen where his performance is viewed through the prism of various predictive stats.

But stats, in any sport, have never told a complete story. What about a players experience? What about his poise, his guts, his work ethic, his heart?

Baseball Prospectus doesn't have a number for that. No one does. It seems to me, Bergesen scores high in areas we can't put a number on.

I don't dismiss these useful stats and in fact continue to learn more about them all the time. But sometimes when you interview a player and/or hear his teammates talk about him and then you see him in person you learn things that Fangraphs could never tell you.




The comments were then filled (mostly) with the usual knee-jerk screeds about how stat guys should take their nose out of their spreadsheets, blah, blah, blah. But that's not Steve's fault. I agree with Steve to an extent but let's refute some of the assertions first because,well, it's what I do best and that's more fun.

Firstly, let's look at the FanGraphs article by Dan Budreika that inspired Steve's post. That article was an article on fantasy baseball (which Melewski does mention). Bergesen is a borderline pitcher for fantasy purposes. He doesn't strike out many batters and he allows baserunners. His value is wrapped up in his lack of walks and his ERA, which the article said he might not be able to keep so low. But Dan concludes the article with this:

But if he maintains a similar profile to last year then he’s certainly a serviceable pitcher (and much more valuable in real-life) at the back of your rotation and even more valuable in deeper leagues.

Fantasy has little to do with real-life baseball but the author concedes that Bergesen may have some value even in fantasy and certainly that he is valuable in real-life. He's hardly bagging on Bergesen, he's just trying to get his head around how Bergesen does what he does.

But stats, in any sport, have never told a complete story.

But stats do speak to many of Bergesen's strengths. His GB% rate was 50.1% in 2009. According to FanGraphs.com, that was good for 17th in the majors, 6th in the AL. He walked only 2.3 per 9 innings, good for 11th in the NL. He gets groundballs, doesn't walk a lot of people and keeps the ball in the park. That's recipe for success in the majors, if not stardom. And those things can be quantified with statistics.

What about a players experience? What about his poise, his guts, his work ethic, his heart?


Baseball Prospectus doesn't have a number for that. No one does. It seems to me, Bergesen scores high in areas we can't put a number on.

I agree with Steve on this point. This is what scouting is for. Makeup, work ethic, coachability...these things are the intangibles that must be examined, especially for guys with fringy stuff.

But even knowing those things, there is only so far that wil take you without the stuff to compete. And if you're watching Brad Bergesen in AAA, how is someone to know if his stuff will translate to the majors? Did Josh Towers fail because he had poor makeup? Or Garrett Olson? Both those guys had good reps for makeup. Ultimately, it comes down to talent.

This is not to say that Bergesen cannot continue to do so. He does lots of little things well (in The Bill James Handbook, he is second to only Mark Buerhle in fielding his position according to scouts) and there are some guys who can succeed with his skill set. Mark Buerhle comes to mind. John Lackey's rookie season looked a lot like Bergesen's. Derek Lowe to some extent. And then there are the extreme outliers like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. It can be done but you can also understand the skepticism.

Nobody knows what allows guys with fringy stuff to succeed on the highest level. (Or for that matter, what causes guys with great stuff to fail.) If you can figure that out, you'll be a rich man. As it is, it's far more art than science. And usually, guys like Bergesen will fail as starters.

However, blending the stats with what I've seen with my eyes, I'm a believer. I don't think Bergesen will ever be an ace but I think he could be a slightly above average, back of the rotation pitcher for many years. Think of a Tim Wakefield type guy. Nothing wrong with a dependable starter like that.

But there's little reason to juxtapose stats vs. intangibles. It's a blending of the two where the answer lies. And even that is murky.


For a FanGraphs article that paints Bergesen in a good light and wonders why he was missed on top prospects list, check out this article from Bryan Smith.

Base Hits: Freak Injury, Cleared Waivers and Prospect Talk

As you've heard by now, Brad Bergesen has injured his shoulder during the taping of a MASN commercial and will not be 100% ready at the start of Spring Training.

After reporting he would be 100% for Spring Training at the Sarasota FanFest, I grimaced as I watched him play in a charity tennis game. Now this. Has MASN ever heard of CGI? No more live action commercials! Hire a cartoonist!

As I've said before, injuries are not a control pitcher's friend. Their success comes from a repeatable delivery and any injury jeopardizes their ability to recreate that delivery again. I don't feel good about this.

Here's the link to the commercial. (TOH to Jay Trucker of the Examiner)

For Christ's sake...

*****

In (perhaps) related news, the Orioles have been linked to free agent lefty starter Jarrod Washburn. How does the Oriole blog-O-sphere feel about this? Go here to find out.

*****

Armando Gabino cleared waivers and was added to the Norfolk roster. It's another arm to consider for the bullpen.

*****

This is a bit old but it's a slow news day. Here's a link to a short interview with Josh Bell by Project Prospect.

While you're at it, check out this longer interview with Brandon Erbe.

*****

A couple of nuggets from the 2010 Bill James Handbook...

Jeremy Guthrie led the AL in "tough losses"* with 5.

The Baltimore Orioles are the second worst base running team in the AL with 57 total bases below average. They do poorly in every category except for stolen bases.

Bill James gives Nick Markakis an 11% chance to break the major league record of 793 career doubles. Brian Roberts has a 10% chance.




*A Tough Loss is defined as a loss in which the pitcher had a Game Score higher than 50. In other words, the pitcher pitched well enough to win.

5 Things To Watch - Spring Training 2010

It's that time again! 8 days until the first Spring Training workouts commence. Unlike previous years, many of the roster spots will be spoken for going into Sarasota but there will still be some things to look for, many of them holdover topics from previous years

1.  Chris Tillman - The rotation is pretty much set but comments from Dave Trembley and Tillman's struggles during his debut last season have left the door open. He's only 22 and if he doesn't look more like the Norfolk version of Tillman in Spring Training, he could find himself back in AAA to start the season. There's also an outside chance that David Hernandez figures out how to strike guys out in Sarasota and edges Tillman out. We know that Trembley likes to go with the hot hand in spring. See Alfredo Simon last season.

2.  The Bench - It's hard to believe that Ty Wigginton breaks camp with the team given his salary and his skill set. This opens the door for Michael Aubrey, Rhyne Hughes or Scott Moore (I have not given up on Moore yet...). And while Robert Andino showed a good glove last season, his bat makes Cesar Izturis look like Brian Roberts. Justin Turner in particular could earn a utility infield spot with a strong showing in Sarasota.

3.  Health - For all the happy talk about everyone being ready for Spring Training, there still has to be some concern with how Brad Bergesen, Nolan Reimold and, now, Will Ohman looks as they shake off the rust this March. For one, I will be shocked if Reimold plays any left field before March 15th. Koji Uehara needs to show he is back and can handle bullpen duty. Bergesen will have to show he feels good enough about his leg to pitch free and easy.

4.  The Battle for the Backup Backstop - This is my own pet subject and this year should be no less fascinating (at least for me). Trembley has already said he sees a good competition between Chad Moeller, Craig Tatum and Michael Hernandez. Sure, it's not earthshaking but it gives you something to watch during the late innings of those early Spring Training games.

5.  Shaking Out The Pen - Mike Gonazalez, Mark Hendrickson and Jim Johnson are near locks for three bullpen spots. The rest? Wide open. It's an interesting mix of veterans and kids. Matt Albers and Cla Meredith will try to retain their spots. Dennis Sarfate will try to force his way back in after being DFA'd this offseason. Kam Mickolio and Alberto Castillo will try to build on brief successes in 2009. Would-be rookie Josh Perrault is my dark horse candidate to make the bullpen in 2010. Can Uehara and Ohman stay healthy? Can Alfredo Simon relieve better than he started?

Help Me, Oriole Rotation. You're My Only Hope.

An Open Letter to the Oriole Starting Five:

Hi guys. It's closing in on Spring Training and Baltimore fans are full of (cautious, admittedly) optimism and hope. Young prospects are on the rise, national media are picking Baltimore to be much improved and even projection systems like PECOTA have the Birds within the margin of error for a winning season.

But I know the truth. This team only goes as far as you five gentlemen take us. The offense is good but not good enough to outslug the Yanks, Sox or maybe even the Rays. No, we need pitching and we need plenty of it to succeed. The good news is, you won't have big shoes to fill. The starting rotation on Opening Day was Alfredo Simon, Koji Uehara, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton and Jeremy Guthrie. Jeremy, you are the only one who remains.

Each of you have a job to do and the Baltimore faithful beg you to do it well.

Kevin Millwood, we know your best days are probably behind you. While you are the de facto ace, nobody expects you to be anything better than league average. We need you to be Rick Sutcliffe circa 1992. You remember the Red Baron, don't you? He came to Baltimore late in his career to help anchor a staff of young hurlers (Mussina, McDonald, Rhodes) and for the first half of the season pitched like the Sutcliffe of old. OK, not like 1984 Sutcliffe but he went 12-6 over the first half of the season with a 4.13 ERA. He finished the season as a slightly below average pitcher in terms of ERA but for half of 1992 (and then some) he was a hero. He helped lead the Orioles, who had lost 97 games in 1991, to an 89 win season in 1992. More importantly, he bought time for the kid pitchers to develop and stabilized the rotation.

You can be that hero, Kevin. I know former Braves have not fared well in Charm City (Javy Lopez, Leo Mazzone, B.J. Surhoff v2.0) but this is a different era, an era of hope and resurrection. Seize the day and perhaps the Orioles will relax facial hair policies for you too.

Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles claimed off of waivers three seasons ago and you went out of the frying pan and into the fire. 2009 was rough on you. You gave up a league high 35 homers. But that won't happen again because deep down, you are a groundball pitcher with enough of a fastball to strike batters out. Don't give in and keep the ball down in the zone. You finally have help. A veteran to eat innings, kids behind you who will pitch better as the season wears on. You are battle tested, sir. No pitcher in baseball has faced the fearsome lineups you have faced more often over the last three seasons.

We don't need you to try to be the ace anymore. We just need your innings, we just need your experience, we just need your spirit. Just keep the ball in the park and let your defense do the rest.

Brad Bergesen. You were labeled a AAAA pitcher. You were not supposed to have the stuff to pitch in the AL East. You were not supposed to be in the rotation in 2009. But you were and you were the best of the rotation last season.

You're a groundball machine. You walk no one. Nobody's getting a cheap hit off of you. According to The Bill James Handbook, you might just be the best fielding pitcher in the American League. You have the best chance of any of the starters to hit 200 innings pitched like Guthrie did last year. You're a fan favorite already and everyone is pulling for you to succeed. Like it or not, you're the underdog and everyone loves the underdog. Just keep it up. Please.

Brian Matusz, I have not had so much fun watching a guy pitch since Mike Mussina donned the orange & black. You have four pitches and you command them all extremely well. So on any count, you are likely to throw any of them. It reminds me of Mussina throwing his knuckle-curve on a 3-2 count, buckling the batter's knees and ringing up the K. You are that kind of talent. I can see you tying the hitters up in knots, mentally and physically with each successive at bat.

You are to inherit the "ace" tag for Baltimore and become the best Baltimore pitcher since the aforementioned Mussina. The rotation is relying more on your success than on any other individual pitcher. But the scouts love you and I think you may be due for a great leap forward in 2010.

Chris Tillman, it was not pretty during your 12 major league starts in 2009. A 5.40 ERA and lots of walks. But at the age of 21, you had nothing left to prove in the minors. You destroyed the International League posting a 2.70 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 96 innings for AAA Norfolk. It was your time. It is your time.

But just relax. No one is expecting you to be anything more than the 5th best starter for the Orioles in 2010. But I saw you in AAA. Your fastball moved and you mixed you pitches well. In Baltimore, you overthrew and that fastball flattened out. No need to throw through a brick wall. The baseball is an egg. Hold it like and egg. And by the end of the season, you may just start to show flashes of the ace potential you brought with you from the Seattle organization.

So don't believe the hype. If the Orioles are to surprise the league this season, it won't be because they signed Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins, it will be because the five of you.

Now let's go O's!

Base Hits: Undervalued Pitchers, The Big Picture and News About Third Basemen

I wanted to highlight this article on FanGraphs.com if for no other reason that I also feel that Brad Bergesen is/was vastly undervalued and that Bryan Smith laid out his value far better than I ever have. I'm looking forward to the rest of his series on slider/sinkerball pitchers.

*****

Brandon Oland writes that he is skeptical (at best) about the Orioles' rebuilding process in the snarkiest tone he can muster.

But allow me to state that Brandon has no idea what he is talking about.

Example:

The players (Andy MacPhail) brought in are not improvements over the players he traded away last year.



Garrett Atkins is not half the slugger Aubrey Huff is.

Oh, he's definitely half the slugger. He'd only have to slug .200 to be half the slugger that Huff is today.

Mike Gonzalez is not an improvement over George Sherrill.

Oh, yes he is. Just wait.

Kevin Millwood is likely to be the opening day starting pitcher, which means the Orioles will be turning to a right-hander the pitching-starved Texas Rangers were eager to dump.

Well, this is kind of true but the Rangers were willing to part with Millwood because they are cash starved way more than they are pitching starved.

What Brandon fails to pick up on here is the function of these players. Atkins is a place-holder until Brandon Snyder and/or Josh Bell arrive from Norfolk. Sherrill needed to be replaced (you can argue if a free agent closer was the way to go...) because he was traded away for the aforementioned Bell. Millwood is here for one season to buy time for Jake Arrieta and Zack Britton and perhaps provide some steadiness to a rotation that will feature young hurlers Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Brad Bergesen.

These players were not signed to compete with the Yankees in 2010; they are here to warm seats for the kids who may be able to contend.

Now, I wouldn't expect every casual fan to understand this or know Baltimore's farm system. But then there's this statement:

I’m sure Fan Fest autograph seekers will be eager to meet Orioles stars Brian Roberts, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis.

But aside from them, what’s left to be excited about? Not much.

Except for Matt Wieters. And Nolan Reimold. Or Matusz. Or Tillman. Or Bergesen or Luke Scott.

Get out to the Yard, Brandon. There's baseball stuff happening out there.

*****

As if in response to Brandon Oland himself, MASN's Steve Melewski reminds panicky fans to keep the big picture in mind. Then he paints it for them. Well done!

*****

And the Orioles' rebuilding is being noticed. The Boston Herald took an in-depth look at MacPhail's handiwork and the prospect of a bright future at Camden Yards.

Matusz will be joined by right-hander Brad Bergesen, who was having an outstanding rookie year before being felled by a line drive off the shin, as well as righty Chris Tillman. Top prospect Jake Arrieta, another righty, waits in the wings.

“They’re coming,” one rival team executive said. “And they’re legit.”...

Add it all together, and the Orioles may be competitive a lot sooner than people think.

*****

Phil Rogers of The Chicago Tribune says that the Orioles are talking to free agent 3B Joe Crede and that if they sign hime, it could mean that Ty Wigginton or Garrett Atkins could be moved if Crede joins the team.

Given that Josh Bell is pretty close to the majors, I like the idea of taking a chance on Crede. His defense is stellar and if he's healthy, he helps the team a lot. I can't imagine the O's would move Atkins (although stranger things have happened) so I would think that Wigginton would be shipped off to the Nationall League for some relief pitching depth.

*****

Dempsey's Army wishes Brooks Robinson a speedy recovery from his abdominal surgery. Get well, Brooks!

*****

Kudos to Miguel Tejada for helping with the relief efforts in Haiti. Whatever you have to say about Miggy's Baltimore stay, you have to admire a guy putting something on the line to help with the tragic devastation in that country.

*****

OK Le Batard, I get the point of your fictional steroid apology. But did you have to use Cal Ripken in it? Don't Baltimore fans suffer enough? Next time, use Tony Gwynn.

*****

I should mention the Oriole FanFest coming up this weekend:

Over 60 current, future and former Orioles players and coaches will participate in the team's 2010 FanFest event at the Baltimore Convention Center next Saturday, January 23. Presented by the Sarasota Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2010 FanFest will feature autograph sessions and question and answer forums as part of a day-long celebration of baseball that will also include clinics, exhibits and interactive games. The event will be held from 11:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., with early entry for Orioles Season Plan Holders to begin at 10:00 a.m.

Current and future players scheduled to attend include MATT ALBERS, ROBERT ANDINO, GARRETT ATKINS, MICHAEL AUBREY, JOSH BELL, BRAD BERGESEN, JASON BERKEN, ALBERTO CASTILLO, BRANDON ERBE, MICHAEL GONZALEZ, JEREMY GUTHRIE, DAVID HERNANDEZ, RHYNE HUGHES, JIM JOHNSON, ADAM JONES, NICK MARKAKIS, BRIAN MATUSZ, CLA MEREDITH, KAM MICKOLIO, KEVIN MILLWOOD, LOU MONTANEZ, TROY PATTON, FELIX PIE, NOLAN REIMOLD, BRIAN ROBERTS, DENNIS SARFATE, LUKE SCOTT, BRANDON SNYDER, CHORYE SPOONE, CRAIG TATUM, CHRIS TILLMAN, JUSTIN TURNER, MATT WIETERS and TY WIGGINTON.

Orioles Manager DAVE TREMBLEY and 2010 coaches TERRY CROWLEY, JEFF DATZ, ALAN DUNN, RICK KRANITZ, JUAN SAMUEL and JOHN SHELBY will also participate.

Former Orioles PAUL BLAIR, MIKE BORDICK, DON BUFORD, AL BUMBRY, MIKE CUELLAR, RICK DEMPSEY, KEN DIXON, JOE DURHAM, TODD FROHWIRTH, DICK HALL, RON HANSEN, CHRIS HOILES, BILL HUNTER, SCOTT McGREGOR, JOHN MILLER, TIM NORDBROOK, JOE ORSULAK, JIM PALMER, BOOG POWELL, GARY ROENICKE, LARRY SHEETS, NATE SNELL, BJ SURHOFF and FRED VALENTINE and former coach JIMMY WILLIAMS are all expected to attend.

Rick Dempsey and Larry Sheets in the same room? I might faint if I was there...

Alas, I will be unable to make it living in Atlanta and all. Anyway, I've already been to one FanFest this offseason.

Go out and support the team, it sounds like fun. Say hi to Brandon Oland for me.

Base Hits: So Long Buck, More Spring Training, Brad Bergesen and the Accent Aigu

MASN color analyst Buck Martinez has moved on to Toronto to do play-by-play for the Blue Jays in 2010. Good riddance.

Nobody is happier about this development than me. I couldn't stand the guy on the broadcasts, from his analysis to the timbre of his voice, and being an MLB.tv subscriber I would often switch to the other team's feed to avoid him. I remember when the Orioles picked up Ryan Freel last offseason and Martinez described him as "another Brian Roberts". Really. Brian Roberts.

It's odd that Martinez will be doing play-by-play now and this quote is also odd:

``Obviously, it's a different role but because I've been blessed with so many play-by-play partners – Jim Hughson, Tom Cheek and Dan Shulman and the guys at ESPN – I think I can take something from all of them."

Gary Thorne is conspicuously absent.

Who's going to pick up the slack? People are already crying for anybody but Rick Dempsey but I am not bothered by Rick. No, he's not polished and he's certainly not conventional. But if Harry Carey can do play by play, I think there's room for Dempsey as a color analyst. Like Carey, Dempsey injects a little fun into the proceedings. And I've seen him keep score, the guy pays attention and knows what he's talking about. But I'm not going to advocate for Dempsey as the top choice.

The top choice should be Ken Singleton. He's fantastic on the Yankee broadcasts. He's smooth, has a great voice and offers a lot of insight. let's bring Ken home.

Another possibility is Billy Ripken. I've been listening to him on Sirius XM's MLB Home Plate and he's quite entertaining and natural on the mic. He would be something of a happy medium between Dempsey and Singleton.

*****

Erik Bedard's hometown paper has an article about the specualtion that Bedard could return to the Baltimore Orioles in 2010.

Note how they print his name: Erik Bédard.

If he comes back to the Orioles, I will employ the accent aigu.

*****

MASN's Steve Melewski reports that Brad Bergesen's leg is at 100%. As you know, I feel the most important component of Bergesen's success in 2010 is that his leg feels normal and he can work on that delivery before Spring Training. Considering he wasn't even running on it less than 4 weeks ago, this is good news.

*****

I'll engage in the rumor mill a bit. Regarding Milton Bradley, there has been a "mystery team" rumored to be in the mix. I think that mystery team is your Baltimore Orioles.

*****

I enjoy the Bird Droppings posts over at Camden Chat. I don't see them every morning but they make a nice one stop for Oriole links of the day. Today it is worth looking at for the Santa Dempsey picture alone.

*****

Baseball Prospectus writer Kevin Goldstein runs down the Rule 5 draft (subscription required) and gives odds on each player sticking. On Steve Johnson:

Traded by the Dodgers to the O's in July, along with top prospect Josh Bell, for George Sherrill, this Baltimore native's time as a potential hometown hero may have been limited to just seven starts for Double-A Bowie. Nothing about Johnson's game stands out, but there aren't many weaknesses either, as he has an effective three-pitch mix. He's not a bad prospect by any means, but he doesn't seem ready yet, either. Odds to Stick: 15-1.

Those are long odds. I'm beginning to think he'll probably be back.

*****

David Golebiewski at FanGraphs.com takes a look at Adam Jones' breakout offensive season. It's a fantasy baseball article but ends with this encouraging summation:

Overall, Jones' 2009 season was very promising. He learned to fight off big league fastballs, not getting jammed nearly as much as in his rookie season. Jones also hit the ball with more authority, which may have helped him get in more hitter's counts. If he can hone his strike zone control and take full advantage of his strength, Jones could emerge as a full-fledged star in 2010.

*****

With Spring Training around the corner, architectural plans were revealed last night for the new Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota. The current stadium will be demolished after Spring Training 2010 and the new complex will be available for Spring Training 2011.


You can view the master plan for the Ed Smith Stadium Complex here.

The Crystal Ball '10: Brad Bergesen

To me, there was no more puzzling development during the 2009 season than the adoration among writer's and scouts of Tigers rookie pitcher Rick Porcello and the utter dismissal of Oriole rookie pitcher Brad Bergesen. Why?

                 ERA    WHIP    K/9   BB/9   K/BB
Porcello '09    3.96    1.34    4.7    2.7   1.71
Bergesen '09    3.43    1.28    4.7    2.3   2.03

If anything, Bergesen was the slightly better version of the same pitcher. Maybe because Porcello is 20 and Bergesen is 23? Perhaps but I think Bergesen is just overlooked.

But maybe he was just lucky. Let's check the BABIP for Bergesen. Hmmm....it comes in at .289. According to Baseball Prospectus, an average BABIP is about .290. So he wasn't particularly lucky either.

Is it the heat? Porcello throws his fastball at 91 mph on average, Bergesen only hits 89 mph. That could be an issue going forward.

But guys like Bergesen can and do success in the majors. Bergesen compares favorably to a buy like Mark Buehrle and pitchers of the past like Bob Tewksbury. He won't be an ace but he could be a solid #4 starter for years to come. Absolutely nothing wrong with that.

In addition, he is an outstanding fielder. I was reading The Bill James Handbook and he was considered the second best fielding pitcher in the American League (behind Mark Buehrle). Any little bit helps.

One word of caution...that leg injury. Guys like Bergesen have no margin for error. They need a repeatable delivery to locate their pitches and deceive the opposition because they have such marginal stuff. Chien-Ming Wang never came back from his foot injury the same pitcher. We can only hope that Brad fully recovers and can regain his form in Spring Training.

My prediciton: a sub-4.00 ERA, a walk rate very close to 2.00 BB/9, a K/9 over 5.00 and 180 innings pitched.

If he can recover from his injury, I think he's for real.

Base Hits: September Plans, Andy Pettitte and The Oriole Advocates

Lots of stuff in this Dan Connolly/Jeff Zreibec notebook entry for The Baltimore Sun.

First, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman will only make 2-3 more starts before being shut down for the season. It may be ugly on the field but given their youth and the fact that the future of the rotation hinges on these guys, I think that's a prudent move.

Second, Brad Bergesen will not return this season. I was watching as the line drive rocketed off his leg and he limped, hopped, stumbled and ultimately collapsed in the tunnel heading toward the locker room. I figured that he would not be back at that moment...damn Oriole luck. And although I am generally an optimist, consider this; an unconventional control pitcher like Bergesen needs everything to go right for him to have success and a lot of that comes from a repeatable delivery. Chien-Ming Wang was one of the best pitchers in the AL for a couple seasons, hurt his leg and was never the same. Cross you fingers for Mr. Bergesen.

Chris Waters and Chris Lambert will be recalled from Norfolk to pick up the leftover starts. Buy your blindfolds now.

Speaking of blindfolds, Alberto Castillo, Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate are being recalled today to provide "relief" for the overworked bullpen. For some reason, I like all these guys enormously. If they had recalled Bob McCrory, they would have been my full set of "favorite marginal big league relievers" that keep bouncing back and forth from Norfolk (or the DL) to Baltimore. All are flawed but I can't shake the feeling that they will all contribute to the success of the Oriole bullpen next season.

Norfolk pitching coach and former Oriole hurler Mike Griffin will finish out the season in Baltimore once IL play wraps up. Interesting...

Good to see Screech coming back to Baltimore. He's put together a fantastic season at Norfolk and I love to see guys rewarded who hang in there and overcome adversity in the minors.

*****

Speaking of overcoming adversity, former Oriole top pick Darnell McDonald has been playing for the Reds this season and hit his first major league homer last week against the Brewers.

McDonald was sent down in May but was called up a week ago and has been tearing it up. It probably won't last and he probably won't stick but it's nice to see a guy ride the buses for 12 years and finally get some limelight.

*****

It's rare that a New York sports reporter would write a thoughtful, informed piece about the Baltimore Orioles without a hint of arrogance or indifference. But Tyler Kepner has done just that.

*****

Mark Teixeira article on being booed at OPACY:

"The 29-year-old, who once listened to Camden Yards fans call him out for wearing a Don Mattingly T-shirt, said that the jeers in this ballpark don't register. "

Still waiting for photographic evidence of Teixeira wearing a Don Mattingly t-shirt. That sight must have been more elusive than the Loch Ness monster...

*****

By the way, I consider Jerry Hairston's botched play on an Adam Jones grounder to spoil Andy Pettitte's perfect game bid a cosmic universal shoutout to the club that drafted him.

And no, I didn't want to see a perfect game. Not by him, not against my team, not in Baltimore. The less Yankee celebrating in Charm City, the better. Hell, I would've been OK if Trembley had somebody lean into one to spoil it.

And can we stop it with the "near perfection" crap already. He didn't even make it into the 8th with a no-hit bid. That old man wasn't throwing a perfect game...he didn't even come that close.

*****

How have The Oriole Advocates escaped my attention for so long? Among many other things, they created the O's Dugout Club, a product which I have actively endorsed. Lots of other cool stuff at the site. I wonder if they would accept members from the Oriole Diaspora?

Base Hits: 7/31/2009

Reaction to the George Sherrill Trade:

Rob Neyer of ESPN:

I'm not going to criticize the Dodgers for trading Josh Bell. Who knows? Maybe Casey Blake will live forever.

What I will do is send up a big hip-hip-hooray for the Orioles, because the single best thing any rebuilding manager can do, ever, is trade a relief pitcher in late July for a couple of solid prospects.

Let me repeat for anyone not paying attention: a relief pitcher....

If I were an Orioles fan, I would be organizing a party right now.

Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times:

The Orioles won the deal by far, however. Yes, Sherrill is a very good left-handed reliever. However, he's already 32 and is about to get extremely expensive in his second year of arbitration. Also, did I mention his career high for innings pitched is 53.1? For that, the Dodgers gave up someone who is certain to anchor the Orioles' order in a few years and an intriguing arm....

The Orioles did very well here, while the Dodgers clearly overpaid...

Matt Pouliot of NBC Sports:

So much for the thought that the Orioles would have to be overwhelmed to move their closer...

(Josh) Bell isn't the problem...Johnson is the weak link here. The Orioles should have insisted on a better second prospect than the 21-year-old. It'd be very disturbing if they let the fact that his father, Dave, was a former Oriole influence their thinking here...

...I think the Dodgers did quite well here...

Keith Law of ESPN:

The main return for Baltimore is third baseman Josh Bell, who alone is probably worth more in asset value than a good but sub-Joe Nathan, 60-inning-a-year reliever with two years of control left. Bell is a strong, athletic switch-hitter with ridiculous bat speed from the left side -- so much that his bat might be in and out of the zone too quickly. He has improving power that probably is above-average to plus in the future. He's a little rough at third but projects to stay at the position, and he has the athleticism to be above-average there with more work....

The second player Baltimore acquired, right-hander Steve Johnson, has a solid to average fastball that will touch 92 with a fringe to average changeup and a below average to average breaking ball. But Johnson has a long arm action; he shows the ball to the center fielder, pronates his forearm and comes around with a "pie-thrower" action that really looks like it's costing him command. He's a local kid and the son of former Orioles pitcher and current Orioles broadcaster Dave Johnson, so there's some karmic value there, but he looks more like a good organizational pitcher than a prospect right now.

Drew Forrester of WNST:

They’ll survive without Sherrill, obviously. I wonder, though, did the O’s inquire about Cliff Lee before the Indians dealt him to the Phillies for a couple of decent prospects and some towels? Was there ever a consideration to approach the A’s about Matt Holliday and use him as a DH and 4th outfielder?...

Selling off good players is what the Pirates do. And we all know they stink....

I wanted to be a seller by jettisoning the scrubs, not the good players.

Good teams acquire good players at the deadline.

Bad teams trade good players at the deadline.


R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs.com:

In Bell, the Orioles receive a 22-year-old switch-hitting third baseman with impressive power potential. His ISO in Double-A this season is .203, but there are some questions as to whether he’s going to stick at third for the long haul or move to a corner – either first or left/right field. Bell has had issues with strikeouts in the past which reached their apex in 2008. His walk rate has grown impressive and his strikeout numbers are down for this year, so he’s definitely an interesting player to watch for in the next few years....

The two seem like a nice coup by the Orioles in exchange for a two years and a third of Sherrill as they continue to build with impressive young talent.


Frostking of Camden Crazies:

I have mild concerns about Bell sticking at third long-term, but if he keeps hitting this well then there’s a possibility that he’ll begin 2010 as the Orioles starting third-baseman. Johnson is pretty good as a throw-in and might develop into an interesting arm. I don’t immediately love the deal, but I sure like it and it was the right thing to do. There will be talk about who takes over as closer, but given the team’s record I don’t think that really matters right now - a lot of fans (this one included) will certainly miss seeing Flat Breezy coming out from the pen though. Not a steal (the O’s come out maybe $1-3 M ahead), but Andy MacPhail once again moves the team closer to contention.


neal s at The Loss Column:

I think we’ll see Bell here either in late 2010 or 2011 at the latest — and he’ll be here as a third baseman. You can book that.

Johnson’s harder to project, but if he keeps doing what he’s doing I can see him making a bid as a back-rotation guy in maybe 2011 or 2012.

On paper this looks like another MacPhail winner. I’ll miss Sherrill, but I’ll also wish him the best out in LA. It’ll be nice to watch him pitch in October.

Cliff Corcoran from SI.com:

The reason the Orioles should be clicking their heels over this deal, and Dodgers fans should hot under the collar, is Josh Bell. He's not true blue-chipper, but as a 22-year-old switch-hitting third baseman who was hitting .296/.386/.497 in Double-A this season, he has a high ceiling and fills a big hole in their organization. Bell's defense at the hot corner could use some work, but he's already shown an ability to improve in the field.

On the chat rooms, comment sections and Twitter, the casual fan base is split between hating the deal and loving the deal. That's understandable since Sherrill has become a fan favorite in Baltimore but I love the move. It made the team younger and addressed an organizational need.

*****

The Baltimore Orioles are 14-24 against the AL East. But they are 30-33 against the rest of the league. We're getting close guys/ As bad as the pitching has been, we are nearly a .500 team outside of the AL East.

*****

Patrick Sullivan of The Baseball Analysts thinks the Orioles are close to competing in the AL East:

Given their youth, Baltimore might consider tacking on a free agent to the rotation. They will also have to cobble together a bullpen. But as it stands right now this Orioles starting staff looks like it will be able to post a season's worth of above average pitching in 2010 and quite a bit better than that in 2011 and out. When you combine this with their offensive nucleus, the Orioles appear positioned to make the moves necessary to put a contender on the field.

*****

Bergey's on the DL!

What good is having Matt Wieters on the team is he can't heal the sick and make the lame pitch again?

*****

Speaking of Wieters, his 40 games in the wilderness is over. Time for the miracles. Wieters has hit .271/.320/.392 but has hit .423/.444/.462 in the last 7 games so he's stepping it up for August.

*****

Cal Ripken Jr. will be building more youth ball parks in Baltimore and one will be something special:

The former Orioles great plans to build five youth ballparks - including one at the site of the former Memorial Stadium.

Ripken's plan is to turn the little-used field at the stadium site into a multipurpose, artificial turf sports complex.

God bless Cal Ripken. Baseball at the Memorial Stadium site will continue.

Oriole Hurlers In Review

Just some random observations about our rotation...

Brad Bergesen

The rookie keeps impressing. He still needs a bit better strikeout rate (something closer to 6.0 K/9 would make me feel better) but he's doing all the other things a pitcher with his skill set needs to do to compete at the major league level. He's killing worms (49.9% ground ball rate), he's not walking guys (2.32 BB/9) and he's keeping the ball in the park (0.85 HR/9). You've got to love the attitude, the guy doesn't quit or get shell shocked. His strikeouts are a bit lacking (4.56 K/9) but he looks to have the skills to be a legitimate back of the rotation starter.

David Hernandez

Another guy who keeps succeeding on pure will power at this point. Hernandez came to Baltimore with a rep as a guy who could pile up the strikeouts but that hasn't happened yet (so far he's only striking out guys at Bergesen levels...). He has kept the ball in the park (0.80 HR/9) but is giving up fly balls at a 55% rate...so that HR rate is bound to rise and his ERA with it.

But give credit to Hernandez. He's not able to strike guys out at a rate that he's used to but he's worked around that, kept his head about him and battled the best he could. Hernanadez may not ultimately succeed but it won't be because of his makeup.

Jeremy Guthrie

Guthrie gave up his 23rd home run of the season on Saturday, one short of his career high...and it's not even August.

Guthrie is on pace to surrender 37 home runs, surpassing Sidney Ponson, Scott McGregor and Robin Roberts for the club record. According to HitTrackerOnline.com, damn near all the homers given up by Guthrie are legitimate, almost none of them are counted as lucky shots.

Here's hoping that Guthrie's just having a bad year. Better for him to return to form in 2010 than in 2009 in my opinion.

Rich Hill/Jason Berken

With the impending promotion of Chris Tillman, the fates of Hill and Berken are linked in competition to remain with the club.

Jason Berken really doesn't have the resume to be in the majors at this point. He was promoted to AAA due to a lack of arms and then promptly to the majors for the same reason. He can be a useful arm in the future but could use some more seasoning in an environment where he's not getting shelled every start. The one plus for Berken...he has a FIP of 4.76 versus his actual ERA of 6.55 which indicates that he may have been pitching better than the surface results. But I'm guessing that's small consolation to Berken.

Hill is not good. There's no doubt about it. A 7.64 ERA and a 5.13 FIP. But there are two guys struggling in the rotation and only one Chris Tillman to call up from Norfolk. If you're asking me to pick a guy for cannon fodder, I'll take the veteran and save the psyche of the kid. Fans can be angry about Hill taking the mound every 5 days but the eye has to be on 2010 and 2011. Let Berken go work things out in Norfolk/Bowie. Hill can fall on his sword for the next two months.

Chris Tillman

His stats in Norfolk:

                W-L   IP    ERA   K   BB   HR
Tillman - AAA   8-6  96.2  2.70  99   26    5

   

His last outing was not good but I imagine he'll be better than most of what we already have.

Throwing Ice Water on the Brad Bergesen Enthusiasm

"Bergesen is God"

"...a fixture in the rotation for years to come..."

"...the ace of the staff..."

The Oriole blogosphere is getting carried away with Brad Bergesen.

And why not? What's not to like? The rookie is 6-3 with a 3.54 ERA and he's averaging 6.6 innings per start.

However...what's the real long term projection for Bergey?

The bottom line is, he can't strike people out and it's tough to succeed in baseball without that ability.

Through yesterday's game, Bergesen is striking out batters at 4.7 per 9 innings. I searched BaseballReference.com to see how many starting pitchers were successful over the past 30 years while striking out fewer than 5 batters per nine.

Here's the highlights of guys that managed to be above-average in terms in ERA while pitching 500 innings or more.

John Tudor

Chien Ming-Wang

Dave Dravecky

Rick Reuschel

Charlie Liebrandt

Zane Smith

Bob Tewksbury

Mike Flanagan

Anybody see any staff aces on that list?

Now, all those guys had some success in the league. Their best years occurred when they A) edged their strikeout rate up over 5.0 K's per 9 or B) lowered their walk rate below 2.0 per 9. (Bergesen is currently walking 2.2 per 9.)

Brad Bergesen is certainly capable of doing either of those things and sticking in the rotation but it will probably be toward the back, not as "the ace". But he needs to improve his strikeout rate or lower his good walk rate to insanely low levels to achieve even that. Otherwise he stands to be a righthanded version of Horacio Ramirez. And that's not pretty.

Base Hits: 6/29/2009

A rambling version of Base Hits on this Monday. A lot to talk about...

Some good news from Birdland this weekend. Firstly, they won the series with the Nationals 2-1.
Secondly, The Warehouse came to terms with 2009 1st round pick Matt Hobgood. Here's the video from The Baltimore Sun's website.




The kid sure says all the right things. I imagine he'll end up in Bluefield with the rest of the high school signees.

Also a couple of nice articles about Orioles players from the national media. Marc Hulett writes about the Oriole acquisition of Cleveland farmhand Michael Aubrey this week for FanGraphs.com:

The 27-year-old former Tulane University start has below-average power for a MLB first baseman, but he can hit for a solid batting average with gap power and he is an above-average fielder. It's a very nice low-risk, medium-reward move by an organization that is getting better by the season.

I know nothing about Michael Aubrey in particular but organizational depth at the corner infield positions is something the O's really need and Aubrey can't hurt.

Also at FanGraphs.com, Dave Cameron takes a look at underrated rookie pitcher Brad Bergesen.
When you can command a sinking fastball and have an off-speed pitch to keep opposite handed hitters at bay, you can be an effective major league starter. Bergesen doesn’t have the same potential as some of the more hyped arms in the Orioles system, but don’t discount his strengths and write him off as a no-stuff guy who belongs in the bullpen. Command, sinker, and change-up - it’s the recipe for a solid back-end starting pitcher.

Bergesen takes a lot of criticism from many analysts due to his anemic strikeout rate in the majors. It's a fair criticism but you also have to consider a couple of other stats too.

Ground Ball percentage among AL starters:

                   GB%
Rick Porcello     56.9%
Roy Halladay      56.3%
Brad Bergesen     54.0%
Felix Hernandez   51.3%
 

If Bergesen can keep inducing grounders at this rate, he's going to hang around awhile. Interesting to see fellow rookie Rick Porcello on this list. Halladay and Hernandez strike out a ton of batters but Porcello doesn't have that kind of stuff. Let's take a closer look.

            GB%   K/9   BB/9   K/BB
Porcello   56.9%  5.03  3.09   1.63
Bergesen   54.0%  4.30  2.04   2.11
 

Odd that Porcello is touted for Rookie of the Year and gets none of the criticism that Bergesen gets. He only strikes out one extra batter per nine and walks an extra batter per nine.

If Bergesen keeps the walks and the ball down, he's going to have some success in this league. If he can edge his strikeout rate closer to 6 K/9, he could be a great one.

Shysterball had a funny post regarding Sindney Ponson's positive test for a stimulant during the WBC.

It includes the killer line, "The only non-natural substances in Ponson's pee-pee are Yoo-Hoo and failure."

Well played, sir.

Speaking of Shysterball, he also has a post up about Matt Wieters at the NBC baseball blog, Circling The Bases questioning the divinity of the Oriole's rookie catcher.

But a funny thing happened on the way to immortality: Wieters has proved human.

Twenty-one games into his big league career he's at .243/.300/.405. Yesterday he dropped a ball at home plate, turning a sure out into a run for the Nationals. Overall, he's thrown out just two of 15 base stealers and has committed three errors in less than a month.

Now, this post is mostly tongue in cheek but I wonder about Dan Connolly:

Sunday, though, it was back to work at the old ballpark. And let’s just say my Saturday was a whole lot better than Orioles catcher Matt Wieters' Sunday.

The phenom went hitless in three at-bats, made his third throwing error in four games and dropped a ball to wipe out what would have been a sure out at the plate.

Afterward, Wieters was typically calm -- saying he’s working on his defense, and he’s not worried about a bad game...

But, here’s the funny thing: The way things are going right now, Wieters (.234 average, two homers, six RBIs) is not the Orioles’ best candidate for Rookie of the Year. Outfielder Nolan Reimold (.286, 9 homers, 20 RBIs) is, with pitcher Brad Bergesen (5-2, 3.76 ERA) also ahead of the backstop.

Look, it's not even June yet. It's certainly fun to dream on Matt Wieters but who really thought he was going to show up and start dominating right away? Wieters dominated High A immediately, struggled for a couple weeks in AA before taking off and was overmatched his first month in Norfolk before beginning to bludgeon opposing pitching.

Based on that, you had to figure for an adjustment time of at least 2 months in the majors. And you have to forget his cumulative numbers at this point; even with his recent struggles he is OPSing .786 the last two weeks. It's in fits and starts...but he's coming.

Besides, Jesus wandered in the desert for 40 days before showing up in Galilee and dropping miracles on everybody? We'll call Wieters first 40 games his "desert period".

Koji Uehara goes on the DL and David Hernandez gets recalled from Norfolk. One has to wonder if Uehara's future on this team is as a reliever. He can't go more than 5 innings, at least not while staying healthy. Of course, the prospect of Hernandez and Jason Berken going up against the lineups in the AL East for the rest of the season is frightening.

Speaking of pitching, Braves 22-year-old rookie pitcher Tommy Hanson continues to dominate all comers. On Sunday, he shut out the Red Sox for six innings and Atlanta eventually won 2-1.

I bring this up to compare and contrast Hanson against Chris Tillman. Both started the season in the International League.

           IP     K   BB  WHIP  ERA
Hanson    66.1   90   17  .859  1.48
Tillman   72.2   75   21 1.142  2.97
 

Not quite as dominant but he's still striking out more than 1 batter per inning. And look at the tiny walk rate of 2.6 per nine. The concern about Tillman was always his control but he seems to be addressing it. How long until he shows up in Baltimore?

Adam Dunn launched a monster shot off of David Hernandez on Sunday, way out on Eutaw Street. At first, I thought he had actually hit the warehouse on the fly but it wasn't even the longest shot in Eutaw Street history. For more, we go to Eutaw Street expert, Roar from 34:

Adam Dunn stroked a 442-foot home run in the second inning of Sunday's 5-3 loss to the Nationals that one-hopped the warehouse. Dunn's blast was the second-longest Eutaw Street home run during game action, missing Henry Rodriguez's 443-foot shot on June 17, 1997, by just a foot.

I never saw the Henry Rodriguez shot but Adam Dunn's shot was an absolute monster. The biggest Eutaw shot I've ever seen..by a lot!

A plug now for Roar From 34:

Roar from 34's Eutaw Street Week

Monday, June 29 through Sunday, July 5 will be "Eutaw Street Week" on Roar from 34. All content posted during the week will have a Eutaw Street theme or connection, including additional entries to The Eutaw Street Chronicles and an interview with Greg Bader, director of communications for the Orioles, about the new 2110 Eutaw Street promotion.

I'm a big fan of The Eutaw Street Chronicles so some good stuff to look forward to this week.

While I'm beating the drum for marginal players (Oscar Salazar...), I've got to say some nice things about RP Matt Albers. He's really been pitching well since his latest callup. A 1.29 ERA over 14 innings for the month of June. If only he could cut down on the walks. A nice 7-8-9 inning combo would be Albers-Johnson-Sherrill (at least as long as Sherrill's here...).

Tough week as the Orioles return to the AL. Boston in for three at the Yard and then another road trip west to take on the Angels. Can they manage .500? Eh...