Sizzler! Adam Jones Can't Be Stopped

It's not often a guy pulls off the squeeze play to end a game but when you're as hot as Adam Jones has been, anything is possible.

Watch the play here. And on the replay watch Nick Markakis' whole body do an "Oh, shit!" as he sees the bunt laid down.

Jones had been red-hot in the month of August. But it's not just 16 games:

                 AVG   OPS   SLG   2B   HR   
Since Aug 1     .370  .414  .611    5    2
Since July 1    .297  .349  .458    9    4
Since June 1    .306  .350  .514   13   12

For comparison, the same ranges for Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez this season:

                 AVG   OPS   SLG   2B   HR   
Since Aug 1     .306  .368  .419    4    1
Since July 1    .289  .374  .443    5    6
Since June 1    .319  .389  .542   17   13

A 24-year-old centerfielder who can hit at something approaching Adrian Gonzalez levels in the American League? Yes, please.

After a horrible April, Jones has OPSed .810 for the rest of 2010. I'm sure hoping for no injuries or regression for Mr. Jones. The bat is legit.

Nolan Reimold To The Rescue?

From the Oriole Insider blog on BaltimoreSun.com:

Triple-A Norfolk outfielder Nolan Reimold went 4-for-5 with a double, homer, two RBIs and a stolen base against Louisville last night. In seven August games with the Tides, Reimold is batting .400 with two homers, seven RBIs, three walks and two steals. Overall, he’s batting .238 with 10 homers, 32 RBIs and six stolen bases in 73 games.

It’s obviously been a long and trying year for Reimold, who was supposed to be the everyday left fielder in Baltimore. Instead, he hit .205 in 29 games and has been in the minor leagues since May 12. Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said there has been some discussions about promoting Reimold, but nothing is imminent at this point.

I don't believe that Reimold was healthy to start this season and that certainly didn't help things. The silver lining to his struggles and subsequent demotion? Reimold could compete for the first base job in 2011.

Reimold has played 38 of his 73 games in Norfolk at first base. And his hot August is no fluke. Even though he only posted a .235/.361/.382 line in July his BABIP was only .238 when his line drive percentage supports a BABIP in the .290's. In other words, Reimold was unlucky in July and has been hitting the ball a lot better since the beginning of July. (He has also walked 21 times since July 1st against just 16 strikeouts.)

Reimold should get a September callup but with Felix Pie, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in the outfield, there is no room for Reimold in the outfield. A 1B/DH split with Luke Scott makes some sense and adds a decent right handed power bat the the Orioles lineup needs.

5 Biggest Disappointments for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles

The problems with the Orioles in 2010 have been multifold. But some of the season's disappointments have been greater than the others and contributed more to this disappointing season than the others. After some examination, here are the depressing top 5.

5.  Brian Roberts' Injury

Although many of us bloggers raised red flags when the Orioles signed Brian Roberts to a 4-year, $40 million extension last season (some of us, before the fact), I don't think any of us expected age and/or injury to start catching up to Roberts so fast.

Roberts being sidelined early in the season with a variety of back problems hobbled the Orioles' struggling offense even more as a brutal rotation of leadoff hitters tried desperately to fill in. Oriole leadoff hitters have combines for a .302 OBP and .645 OPS.

Roberts could return as early as this weekend but fans have to wonder about his durability and effectiveness as he plays through the 3.5 years left on his contract.


4. Adam Jones' Glove

Adam Jones has had his struggles at the plate this season but has come around of late and, I feel, he'll be just fine in the long run at the plate. Despite his Gold Glove last season, Jones is not showing a great glove in center. He plays shallow and repeatedly let's balls go over his head. He takes bad routes on balls. He sometimes misplays the routine.

Jones, in terms of UZR, is the 3rd worst fielding centerfielder in baseball. UZR does not always tell the whole story, especially for partial seasons, but last season he has the third worst UZR/150 among regular centerfielders as well.

The most frustrating thing about this is that Jones has all the tools: great speed, great leaping ability, an arm that rivals that of Nick Markakis. But he just hasn't put it together in the field this season.


3. Nolan Reimold

After a breakout year in which he forced himself onto the Baltimore roster way ahead of schedule, Nolan Reimold fell off a cliff. Hitting .279/.365/.466 over 104 games during his rookie campaign, Reimold attracted serious Rookie of the Year consideration before having to have surgery on his Achilles tendon toward the end of the season.

I don't believe that Reimold was completely healthy to start the season as he hit an anemic .205/.302/.337 with Baltimore before a May 12th demotion. But being back in Norfolk has not helped matters as he has only .212/.303/.335 since his return and shows no sign of coming around. Reimold has been playing some first base for the Tides and, perhaps, if he is fully healthy in 2011, he could still fulfill some of that promise while filling a need for Baltimore. But that looks like a real longshot at this point.


2. Brian Matusz

Continuing the theme of disappointing young talent, Brian Matusz has yet to become the staff ace that he was predicted to be when he was promoted to Baltimore late last season. Sure, he was a bit rushed to the majors and, sure, I expected him to struggle a bit at the beginning of the season. But as the most polished member of "the Calvary", I thought Matusz would have started showing some life by now. He hasn't.

Matusz's changeup, his best pitch, gets hit pretty hard. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, neither to a great degree but they aren't moving in the right direction. Granted, his FIP and xFIP are significantly better than his 5.21 ERA. But while Tillman, Arrieta and Bergesen were kind of expected to scuffle through this season, Matusz was expected to be a respectable pitcher by now. He's not and he needs help to get there.


1. Matt Wieters

The most highly touted catching prospect since Joe Mauer, one of the most praised minor league bats of all time, one of the few prospects that basically had no criticism from any scout or analyst about his offensive game, Matt Wieters has been a anemic bat in the Oriole lineup. After a torrid September, many were predicting a breakout season for Wieters (including me). Predictions called for average, power and great control of the strike zone. It hasn't happened.

Only Jason Kendall, Yadier Molina and Russell Martin have lower ISO's among catchers. Ditto for average. Only A.J. Pierzynski has a lower OBP.

Were all the scouts wrong? I don't think so (or at least, I hope not). But Wieters' struggles are the latest indictment of Terry Crowley's work with young hitters. Jones hasn't advanced much. Wieters has struggled. Reimold floundered. It seems that hitters develop in spite of Crowley rather than because of him.

Wieters needs help to get his head back on straight. A new coaching staff could do wonders for that.

Base Hits: Offseason Moves, Suspensions and Hope for the Season

Erik Bedard went back to Seattle. Now that the best of the remaining "high risk, high reward" pitchers is off the market, one has to wonder if the O's will now bring in a couple guys on minor league deals. The pickings are slim. Todd Wellemeyer. Kip Wells. Livan Hernandez. Jason Jennings. Kris Benson. And more like that. The Orioles have been linked to none of them.

One intriguing possibility would be Noah Lowry if he's truly healthy but for now it appears that the Orioles are satisfied to go to Spring Training with David Hernandez, Jason Berken and Alfredo Simon as backup plans.

(And it's nice lip service and all but I don't believe for a second that Chris Tillman has serious competition for a rotation spot. It's a nice thing for Dave Trembley to say for motivation but Tillman is in the rotation barring injury.)

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Oriole minor league reliever Brian Parker has been suspended for 50 games after violating the Minor League drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Given the level of prospect, I'll label this one "BFD".

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I was listening to the MLB Home Plate channel on Sirius/XM radio last Wednesday when Adam Jones was pulled over while conducting a phone interview with Casey Stern and Kevin Kennedy. "Guy's, you're not going to believe this but I'm getting pulled over." sais Adam, then as he addressed the officer, "Hold on, I'm conducting an interview. Let me get off the phone." He was pulled over and cited for having his windows tinted too darkly (Jones lives in San Diego but was in Arizona for offseason workouts) and when he came back on the show he reported that the officer was a Red Sox fan and like Jacoby Ellsbury. Adam's mother defended him over here.

But here's some other gems from the interview:

Jones doesn't care where he hits in the lineup, he just likes hitting with Brian Roberts on base. If Nick Markakis is on base too, all the better. He just likes to drive in runs.

On Nick Markakis' arm and defensive prowess, ""I yell at him everytime he gets to throw. He has a great arm. I love it. I loive watching him throw."

In addressing a couple of off-beat question from Casey Stern, Jones reports that he is the most likely Oriole to lock his keys in his car and that Nick Markakis is the teammate most in need of a makeover. "He wears the 'Who shot the couch?' coat sometimes."

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In other various roster news, Roch Kubatko thinks that Ty Wigginton may get dealt before the season begins. I have been assuming/hoping that he will since Garret Atkins and Miguel Tejada make him expendable and moving him gives Michael Aubrey or Scott Moore a shot at a bench spot.

Japanese lefthander Hisanori Takahashi,a former team mate of Koji Uehara, has rejected a minor league offer from the Orioles. Not great loss here as he would be providing only depth except for that cool name.

Dennis Sarfate has cleared waivers and will be a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. A little depth never helps.

Cal Ripken, Jr. and Brooks Robinson both believe that Miguel Tejada has the skills to make the transition to third base. The gist is that Tejada still has the "quick twitch" skills and the arm to play third, which is probably true.

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The Wayard O details Nestor's swansong from the WNST airwaves.

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In a variation of the "he's in the best shape of his life" stories you see at this time of year, here's a couple from Steve Melewski on former (and future?) Oriole top prospect Billy Rowell. Part 1 and Part 2. I'd like to get optimistic but...

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I love two things today; DJ Roomba and the latest edition of the Eutaw Street Chronicles.

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Last minute link: Camden Crazies gives us colorful charts showing how various Orioles do with pitches thrown in various zones.

The Crystal Ball '10: Adam Jones

According to Baseball-Reference.com, these are the four most similiar batter to Adam Jones through the age of 23:

Corey Patterson 
Junior Felix
Carlos Beltran
Dave Winfield

Now that's a wide range of future outcomes.

But unlike most of these players, Jones has steadily improved at the plate in each full season. Only Dave Winfield can make the same claim.

Some key stats:

Adam Jones

            AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   BB%   K%    ISO  
2007       .246  .300  .400  .700   5.8  32.3  .154
2008       .270  .311  .400  .711   4.6  22.6  .130
2009       .277  .335  .457  .792   7.1  19.7  .180

Those are great signs for the future. Not only are his traditional stats getting better, his peripheral stats are heading in the right direction too. That means the production is no fluke.

On top of all of this, he's a damn good centerfielder. In terms of UZR, he wasn't the best centerfielder in the American League and based on last year alone he probably wasn't deserving of the Gold Glove that he won. But over the last two years I believe he is the best centerfielder in the AL and maybe even in all of baseball.

Many Oriole fans want to mortgage the farm to get Adrian Gonzalez away from the Padres and given the surplus of outfielders in Baltimore and the fact that Jones is from San Diego, Jones would probably be included in any package that brings Gonzalez east. But I think that Jones has a very good chance to be just as good a hitter as Gonzalez in two or three years. His power was very good at age 23 and you could project him to hit 25-30 home runs by the age of 27.

He's a special talent but I am a bit hesitant to predict another quantum leap forward at the plate like last year. Look for a .282/.340/.465 line from Jones and hopefully a fully healthy season.

Base Hits: So Long Buck, More Spring Training, Brad Bergesen and the Accent Aigu

MASN color analyst Buck Martinez has moved on to Toronto to do play-by-play for the Blue Jays in 2010. Good riddance.

Nobody is happier about this development than me. I couldn't stand the guy on the broadcasts, from his analysis to the timbre of his voice, and being an MLB.tv subscriber I would often switch to the other team's feed to avoid him. I remember when the Orioles picked up Ryan Freel last offseason and Martinez described him as "another Brian Roberts". Really. Brian Roberts.

It's odd that Martinez will be doing play-by-play now and this quote is also odd:

``Obviously, it's a different role but because I've been blessed with so many play-by-play partners – Jim Hughson, Tom Cheek and Dan Shulman and the guys at ESPN – I think I can take something from all of them."

Gary Thorne is conspicuously absent.

Who's going to pick up the slack? People are already crying for anybody but Rick Dempsey but I am not bothered by Rick. No, he's not polished and he's certainly not conventional. But if Harry Carey can do play by play, I think there's room for Dempsey as a color analyst. Like Carey, Dempsey injects a little fun into the proceedings. And I've seen him keep score, the guy pays attention and knows what he's talking about. But I'm not going to advocate for Dempsey as the top choice.

The top choice should be Ken Singleton. He's fantastic on the Yankee broadcasts. He's smooth, has a great voice and offers a lot of insight. let's bring Ken home.

Another possibility is Billy Ripken. I've been listening to him on Sirius XM's MLB Home Plate and he's quite entertaining and natural on the mic. He would be something of a happy medium between Dempsey and Singleton.

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Erik Bedard's hometown paper has an article about the specualtion that Bedard could return to the Baltimore Orioles in 2010.

Note how they print his name: Erik Bédard.

If he comes back to the Orioles, I will employ the accent aigu.

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MASN's Steve Melewski reports that Brad Bergesen's leg is at 100%. As you know, I feel the most important component of Bergesen's success in 2010 is that his leg feels normal and he can work on that delivery before Spring Training. Considering he wasn't even running on it less than 4 weeks ago, this is good news.

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I'll engage in the rumor mill a bit. Regarding Milton Bradley, there has been a "mystery team" rumored to be in the mix. I think that mystery team is your Baltimore Orioles.

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I enjoy the Bird Droppings posts over at Camden Chat. I don't see them every morning but they make a nice one stop for Oriole links of the day. Today it is worth looking at for the Santa Dempsey picture alone.

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Baseball Prospectus writer Kevin Goldstein runs down the Rule 5 draft (subscription required) and gives odds on each player sticking. On Steve Johnson:

Traded by the Dodgers to the O's in July, along with top prospect Josh Bell, for George Sherrill, this Baltimore native's time as a potential hometown hero may have been limited to just seven starts for Double-A Bowie. Nothing about Johnson's game stands out, but there aren't many weaknesses either, as he has an effective three-pitch mix. He's not a bad prospect by any means, but he doesn't seem ready yet, either. Odds to Stick: 15-1.

Those are long odds. I'm beginning to think he'll probably be back.

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David Golebiewski at FanGraphs.com takes a look at Adam Jones' breakout offensive season. It's a fantasy baseball article but ends with this encouraging summation:

Overall, Jones' 2009 season was very promising. He learned to fight off big league fastballs, not getting jammed nearly as much as in his rookie season. Jones also hit the ball with more authority, which may have helped him get in more hitter's counts. If he can hone his strike zone control and take full advantage of his strength, Jones could emerge as a full-fledged star in 2010.

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With Spring Training around the corner, architectural plans were revealed last night for the new Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota. The current stadium will be demolished after Spring Training 2010 and the new complex will be available for Spring Training 2011.


You can view the master plan for the Ed Smith Stadium Complex here.

Q&A with MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo About the AFL and Oriole Prospects

With the Arizona Fall League ending this past weekend, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo took some time out to answer a few questions about the AFL and Oriole prospects in general.


Jonathan Mayo is a senior writer for MLB.com and covers the minor leagues and the draft. Mayo compiles MLB.com's annual list of the Top 50 Prospects in baseball and is their resident prospect expert. Additionally, Mayo is an author and with his latest book titled, "Facing Clemens: Hitters on Confronting Baseball's Most Intimidating Pitcher".

Dempsey's Army: The Hawaiian Winter Baseball league folded and the Arizona Fall League is still just AA and AAA players. Will MLB move to replace the gap the HWB has left and create a similar league for Rookie league, Single A and recently drafted high school players? I was thinking a small league on Florida’s west coast would work geographically.

Jonathan Mayo: Yes. There are plans for an “AFL Jr,” of sorts, hopefully in 2010. It will be in Arizona and be played in some of the new facilities out there, Goodyear and Glendale . A bunch of the teams that have instructs out there formed a co-op league this year to give the lower-level players a chance to get some game action. Also, the AFL allowed for an extra exemption for A-ball players, up to two from the usual one.

DA: Brandon Snyder looked pretty good in the field during the AFL Rising Stars game. Is his defense improving?

JM: That’s just one game, so you don’t want to draw too much from it. I’ve heard good things about his defense at first. I think he’ll be just fine there. He may not be the kind of guy who is your typical power-hitting 1B, but he’ll drive the ball enough to be a good run producer who hits for average and gets on base.

DA: Two Josh Bell questions: Does it look like he plays the field well enough to stick at 3B? Can he ever learn to hit lefties?

JM: I think he’ll be OK at third. Remember, injuries cut him short for a while when he was with the Dodgers, so I think he’s still learning over there. As for lefties, time will tell. He’ll likely never be great vs. LHP, but he really doesn’t need to be. Very small sample size in the AFL, but he’s had some good ABs against lefties. Hopefully, that’s a good sign.

DA: For the Orioles, CF Matt Angle has gone under the radar in their farm system. His skills are limited but he gets on base and steal bases at outstanding rates. If he can duplicate that success in AA Bowie, should he be considered a decent prospect?

JM: There are always guys who go under-appreciated. Whether Angle is one of those guys will depend on what he does at the upper levels. Guys like him have a hard time getting “prospect buzz.” He’s small, he has no power and he’ll play all season at age 24, putting him on the older side of guys who’ll be in Double-A. But every year there are guys who sneak up and make it when no one is looking.

DA: Outside of Matt Wieters, which Oriole under the age of 26 has the biggest impact in Baltimore next season? (This list includes Adam Jones, Felix Pie, Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, Brian Matusz, Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell and Troy Patton)

JM: Remember a time where you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone on a list like this? I’m one to usually go with the every-day player, though there are some really good starters on there. But I’d have to say Adam Jones is the guy. He showed last year what he’s capable of and he’s still learning. Any time you can have a five-tool guy who can impact the game in so many ways, you have to be excited.

DA: One of the silver linings of the 2009 season is that Baltimore will have the #3 pick for the 2010 Amateur Draft. It’s really early but what player (or what type of player) will be available at the 3 slot?

JM: Umm, a good one? Seriously, it’s hard to know exactly what’s going to be out there. It does look like there will be some good college arms, though as you said, it’s so early, anything can happen and players can emerge. But you can never have enough pitching, right?

DA: What do the Orioles need to add to compete at this point? Is 2011 too soon to ask for a winner?

JM: Get the Red Sox and/or Yankees moved to another division? It’s not just that they spend money. The Sox have a terrific farm system to boot and the Yankees spent their money more wisely and if they continue to do it that way, it’ll be an uphill struggle. And I’m not even mentioning the Rays, who are set up to be very competitive for a long time. But that’s the model the O’s are going for, right? Having young talent coming up every year will give them a chance. I think 2011 or 2012 is a realistic time to expect this talent to start paying dividends.

DA: I check in on the Around The Minors video segments on MiLB.com that you and Lisa Winston produce. Any chance of reviving the Around the Minors podcast? There is really nothing else out there to fill that demand.

JM: We would love to revive that, but I’m not the person to ask. For now, you’ll have to get by with the video segments on MiLB.com. Maybe we can convince someone to bring something back, a podcast or how about a show on MLB Network?

Base Hits: Jones Gets His Glove, Spring Training (Again) and Prospect News

Will the Orioles hold Spring Training in Sarasota in 2010 after all?

It makes little sense that they won't given the fact that there will be an Oriole Fan Fest in Sarasota this weekend and with so much invested in the move. This problem with notification would appear to be just a technicality.

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So after I offered all the rational reasons that Adam Jones would not win a Gold Glove yesterday, he won it anyway.

Congrats to him...if you base it on his last two seasons of work, he is very deserving. But just like I argued last season for Jones and Markakis to win the award and in 2007 for Markakis again, I would be a bit disingenuous if I pretended that Jones deserved the award for his work in 2009 alone. By the same standards I championed him last season, I must say that he is not one of the three best outfielders in the AL. The highest I could honestly put him is 4th.


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The Orioles made their first acquisition of the offseason when they grabbed P Armando Gabino off waivers from the Minnesota Twins. Who? (Give them this, the Orioles's scouts are paying attention. They seem to always know the guys they feel are worthy of a waiver claim...whether they actually work out out or not.)

Gabino is a 6'3", 215 lb righty who will be 26 next season. He has a 3.30 minor league ERA and while not a big strikeout guy, he does have a nice K/BB ratio (2.67 in AAA last year). He's not really a groundball pitcher but not really a flyball pitcher either. I take nothing from the 3.2 innings he pitched for the Twins last year.

All you people who moan about the bullpen...these are the kinds of moves that can turn a bullpen around.

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Baseball Prospectus has released their Top 11 (plus four more) Prospects for the Baltimore Orioles and non-subscribers can check out the list here.

Some excerpts from the write-ups:

3B Josh Bell - As much as Bell improved at the plate in 2009, he made even larger strides defensively. Once seen as a future first baseman, Bell has made significant improvement in his instincts and footwork at the hot corner, while his arm has always been a plus. In an age where many players focus solely on the batting cage, Bell's commitment to defense also speaks to his makeup...While Bell is a switch-hitter, he still struggles against left-handers, as hit he just .193 with one homer against them in 2009.

SP Jake Arrieta - Arrieta's secondary pitches are all works in progress, which leads to an overreliance on his fastball, a habit that had him getting punished at times in the International League.

SP Matt Hobgood - There are concerns about Hobgood's body, as those who saw him in the Appalachian League and instructional league say he was already significantly larger than his listed weight of 245 pounds. That factor, combined with the stress of a long year, saw his velocity dip into the 87-91 range during his pro debut. Conditioning will likely always be an issue with him.

1B Brandon Snyder - Snyder doesn't profile well at his position, as he lacks plus power. While his defense has improved at first base, he's still below average there. A steady diet of breaking balls exposed the holes in his offensive game at Triple-A, and he'll need to make adjustments to have any kind of major league career.

C Caleb Joseph - Joseph will get his first taste of the upper levels in 2010 by beginning the year at Double-A, with a chance to end it as one of Baltimore's best trade chips.

That stuff about Matt Hobgood going all Sidney Ponson on us at age 18 is a bit disconcerting. But there's a lot to like on this list.

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The Dan Uggla to Baltimore reports are interesting. A righthanded power bat that can move to first or DH if Josh Bell forces his way to Baltimore.

But I wouldn't give up a ton for a guy who is a career 114 OPS+...in the weaker National League and has little value in the field.

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In news that matters only to me, Baysox C Adam Donachie will return to the Oriole organization next season. Donachie is a good defensive catcher and rakes against lefties. Part of me still believes he will make a good backup catcher in Baltimore someday.

Why Adam Jones Is Not Actually Going to Win A Gold Glove This Year

I'm not one to address a lot of rumors on this site but when reputable sources start reporting them, I feel the need to at least throw some cold water in the general direction.

Rumor has it that Oriole CF Adam Jones will be awarded his first Gold Glove early this week. How do we know this? His brother congratulated him on his MySpace page for the award. Flimsy evidence that everybody seems to be running with. However, there is a ton of evidence to the contrary.

What follows is a look at how Gold Gloves are awarded and how Jones stands up to each set of criteria. This is not an analysis on whether Jones deserves the award or not. I think most avid baseball fans realize that the award does not always go to the most deserving player. (The fact that Derek Jeter owns more Gold Gloves than Cal Ripken, Jr. is a case in point.) I looked at AL outfield award winners from the last 20 years for comparison.

1. Gold Gloves are Awarded on Reputation

The winners are voted for by major league managers and coaches. Managers are not allowed to vote for their own players. This is one of the factors that contribute to players continuing to get a Gold Glove even as their skills in the field decline. If a player has won 4 straight awards, he is likely to be written in again by many voters simply because they "know he's a great fielder". Not necessarily the best but a great fielder.

Jones faces three incumbents in the AL: Torii Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki and Grady Sizemore. Hunter and Suzuki have each won for 8 straight seasons. Sizemore for 2. Was Jones' defense really so spectacular that he unseats one of these three? I don't think so.

But even if you dropped Sizemore (he was hurt for much of 2009), there are other reps to overcome. Would Jones be able to elbow aside Carl Crawford, an AL outfielder with a terrific and deserved defensive reputation? Or Franklin Gutierrez? Or BJ Upton? Or Curtis Granderson? All these guys have a longer track record and a perception that they are great defenders. And all are at least as good as Jones was in 2009.

To paraphrase The Fresh Prince, "Jones is only 23, he don't have a rep yet."

2. Gold Gloves are Influenced by Offense As Much As Defense

Sad but true, many Gold Gloves are given in part because a player's bat gets them some attention. First time award winners often have eye-popping stats at the plate.

Kenny Lofton hits .325 and steals 70 bases in '93. Jay Buhner hits 44 homers in '95. Shawn Green hits 42 homers in 1999. Darin Erstad hit's .355 in 2000. Some of these players were worthy Gold Glovers, some of them weren't. But their first wins all coincided with great offensive years.

Did Jones have a great offensive year? No. He made strides and was a good hitter but he wasn't an elite offensive force.

It works the opposite way too sometimes. But Ichiro hit .352 this season and Hunter had the best offensive season of his career. They are unlikely to be unseated as Gold Glovers. Sizemore

had a down year but his OPS was still better than Jones. Again, Sizemore looks to be the weak link at this point but Jones doesn't have the eye-popping stats that could unseat an entrenched winner.

3. The Rule of 120

No AL outfielder in the last 20 years has won his first Gold Glove while playing less than 120 games. It's rare that it has happened at all, at least in a non-strike year. Hunter won a Gold glove in '05 playing 98. Griffey won it in '95 playing in 72. But these were "rep" awards.

Jones only played in 119 games. I'm sure many managers and coaches didn't even see him this season during the stretches that he was injured. He simply didn't play enough to make a big impression.

4. If Voters Look at Fielding Stats at All, They Look at "Traditional" Stats

Voters tend to look at basic fielding stats like errors and fielding percentage, if they look at all. Jones' .986 fielding percentage is near the bottom of regular AL centerfielders. There are not many outfielders who can top 5 errors either...and Jones only played 118 games in the field.

Nothing from the basic stats (or the advanced stats for that matter) make Jones stand out. If you were looking at these basic stats, David DeJesus would have to be a strong candidate (and he may be one anyway).

Conclusion

So, Adam Jones is going to unseat incumbent Gold glove winners, overcome other veteran outfielders with good defensive reputations and win his first Gold Glove with a "meh" offensive season and a "meh" season with the glove, all the while playing less than 75% of the season on a small market losing team? Add to this the fact that to the "eye" and the advanced defensive metrics, Jones did not always look great in the field.

Is it impossible for Jones to win? No. Is he deserving? Probably not. Is he likely to win? Absolutely not. It just doesn't make sense, regardless of what a guy on MySpace claims.

Base Hits: The AFL Rosters, Nagging Injuries and Happy Birthday to Cal.

The rosters for the Arizona Fall League have been, by and large, released. The Orioles who will be taking the field for the Phoenix Desert Dogs:

1B Brandon Snyder
3B Josh Bell
3B Brandon Waring
OF Matt Angle
RP Eddie Gamboa
SP Brandon Erbe
SP/RP Ryohei Tanaka

I'm very interested to see how Josh Bell and Brandon Waring fare against top notch pitching. Snyder proved himself in the AFL last season and that success carried him to the cusp of the majors this season.

The pitchers are intriguing too. Has Brandon Erbe recovered? Will fast-rising reliever Gamboa show the stuff to get top level hitters out? Does Tanaka have more promise than originally thought?

Interesting teammates for the Oriole players too. Top Nationals prospect Steven Strasburg will be on the squad as well as former Oriole pitcher turned Blue Jays hitting "prospect" Adam Loewen. (Loewen is posting a .245/.348/.371 line a high-A Dunedin...)

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From this roundup article from the Boston Globe:

8. Dave Trembley, manager, Orioles - A scout who watched the Orioles-Rays series last week noticed a bit of apathy from the Baltimore bench. “They have good talent, a couple of good young pitchers, but there’s no fire over there whatsoever,’’ said the scout. “You’ve got to show your players you’ve got the fire no matter where you are in the standings, and you don’t see that with the Orioles. That really stands out.’’ Trembley has managed the tough times in Baltimore, but will he be around to manage the upswing?


If what the scout says is true, it could be a bad omen for Trembley. As I said last week, if Trembley gets let go, it'll be because he has lost his players and not because he lost a lot of games.


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The Examiner takes a look at where some Orioles that started the 2009 season with the team have ended up.

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Monday was the 49th birthday of Hall of fame shortstop Cal Ripken, Jr. In a reminder of the arrogance of the New York sporting community, here's the article from the New York Times that suggested that Ripken take a day off before breaking Gehrg's record in 1995.

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Orioles-Inflicted Grimace of the Day. In honor of Baltimore's first series win since the All-Star break, I present Mark Buerhle:

This grimace comes courtesy of a Nolan Reimold 2-run shot on Sunday.

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I don't like back injuries for young stars like Adam Jones and although the condition is not considered serious, it gives one pause to poner the Oriole lineup without him.

In the same article, Nolan Reimold may have offseason surgery to repair a fraying Achilles tendon. If that turns out to be the path he chooses, let him do it now! It's a good 4-5 months of recovery time and that's if everything goes well. The O's will need Reimold healthy for 2010...2009 is a lost cause.

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Love the interviews with minor leaguers over at Right Off Russell and the two latest are Frederick pitcher Zach Britton and Frederick 1B/OF Robbie Widlansky.

Good Ravens coverage over there too, if you're inclined to that sort of thing.

The Future...Is Now?

Over the last couple of weeks, the Orioles have proven that they cannot even manage to beat the dregs of the American League and find themselves in last place with the worst record in the league and the third worst record in baseball. Coming into Saturday's game, the Orioles had only managed to score a measly 1.7 runs per game for the month of June and it is reflected in the record. This offense was supposed to be decent this season but an anemic offense with the woeful pitching staff makes for a long summer in Baltimore. Does the recent outburst against Atlanta mean the slump is over? I'll believe it when they start doing it against the American League; facing NL hurlers is akin to playing AAA teams.

Instead of whining about the present, let's look to the Orioles' brighter future. There are more important issues than the standings for the Orioles and most of these players won't be here when Baltimore starts winning. How are the players under age 26playing?

Adam Jones:

The last couple weeks have seen Jones flailing and missing with 11 strikeouts and only 1 walk. The slump has worsened as he posted just a .100/.136/.250 line last week.

Jones has broken out this year, now he has to show he can continue to make adjustments.

Nick Markakis:

Since May 15th, Nick Markakis has put up a .211/.262/.307 line for a .569 OPS with only one home run.

That is easily the worst stretch of games for Nick since the first month of his rookie season. Is he injured? Let's hope not. I picked Markakis for a big breakout this season but so far he's gone the other direction. Sometimes, it's hard to remember that Markakis and Reimold are both 25.

Nolan Reimold:

For a guy who was considered a fringy prospect (I don't remember seeing him on anyone's Top 100 list except for Keith Law in recent years), Reimold has been a revelation the last two years. He stayed healthy and dominated the Carolina League last year and didn't miss a step when he showed up at Norfolk this year. Since coming to Baltimore, he is getting on base at a .356 clip (always a concern for him in the minors), has hit 7 home runs in his first 28 games and posted a .316/.435/.526 line last week alone. He appears to be getting better as the weeks go along. The future in the Oriole outfield is bright indeed.

Robert Andino:

I don't think that Robert Andino is ever going to hit well enough to be a starter in the Majors but his glove is giving me enough reason to think I may not hate the Hayden Penn trade in a couple years. A true great glove at short, Andino could be a valuable bench player/utility infielder for the next few years. The bat is Izturis-esque but so is the glove. He's actually played a better short than Izturis in his limited opportunities.

Matt Wieters:

"Matt Wieters Can And Does Assume The Double Play."

In his short professional career, Wieters has shown the ability to move up a level, struggle for a period of time, make adjustments and then destroy opposing pitchers. It looks like he's starting to do that in Baltimore.

Wieters hit .400/.438/.467 last week. He still doesn't have a home run and he still doesn't have an RBI but the signs are there that he's starting to adjust. No offense to Gregg Zaun but he's already a better hitter as he scuffles along.

Brad Bergesen:

When you have a trio of second tier pitching prospects like Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez and Jason Berken, (as opposed to top tier prospects like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta) you really have to feel lucky if just one of them works out as a starter and truly blessed if another of them ends up as a quality reliever.

The Orioles look to be lucky so far as Brad Bergesen is making his way to being a solid 3rd or 4th guy in a major league rotation. His stuff is not great, he's a sinker/slider pitcher who doesn't look like he's going to strike a bunch of guys out but he seems to be learning how to get the best out of his stuff and let the defense behind him do the heavy lifting.