The Crystal Ball 2011: Brian Matusz

Young Brian Matusz is the Orioles' best shot at having a true ace this season.

After a rough learning curve (he was, even by Andy MacPhail's admission, rushed to the majors in 2009), Matusz turned a corner in the second half. Second half numbers for the rotation:

            G HR BB SO SO/BB   ERA    WHIP
Guthrie    14 10 16 62  3.88  2.76   0.990
Matusz     14  7 25 63  2.52  3.63   1.194
Bergesen   15 15 28 57  2.04  3.94   1.261
Tillman     6  6 22 21  0.95  6.03   1.468
Arrieta    11  6 28 32  1.14  4.85   1.533

Guthrie had a great second half too but Matusz did it at age 23 which, of course, makes him more projectable going forward. He showed the talent and the toughness to be a top of the rotation starter.

In addition, he has been a little unlucky in his brief career in terms of the quality of his opponents. From Bill James Online:

More than 80% of Matusz starts in his career have come against winning clubs. That's a high number even taking into account that he pitches in the AL East. Oddly, he seems to do better as the competition gets tougher but that's probably due to small sample size and that's not really the point I'm getting at. The point is that Matusz has been given a very tough assignment in terms of quality of competition and having to learn on the job. It was a trial by fire and he seems to have come through it OK. This crucible will make him better going forward and his numbers will look better as he sees a more normal distribution of competition.

Oddly enough, his great changeup (hailed by most as his best pitch) doesn't seem to be getting guys out like you would expect. According to FanGraphs.com, his changeup actually has a negative value. His best pitches are his fastball and slider. Maybe he's pitching backwards? Using his changeup to set up the fastball and his breaking stuff? 

Regardless, after Adam Jones, Matusz is my pick to breakout in 2011. He's using every weapon in arsenal, he's made it past the early bumps in the road while facing the toughest possible competition and he will be just 24. 

I don't want to say it (although when you look at the competition, maybe this isn't such fantastic praise) but Matusz looks poised to be the best pitcher to come through the Oriole system since Mike Mussina. 

Why Baltimore Would Be Better Off Without Paul Konerko

From Dan Connolly's post in the Baltimore Sun's Oriole Insider blog, regarding Paul Konerko and the aggressive offer the Baltimore Orioles are reported to have made:

That said, the Orioles really could use Konerko. He fills several needs: a legitimate power hitter who plays first base, bats right-handed and brings winning experience and a veteran presence. He is one of the more well-respected professionals in the game.


Yes, he’ll be 35 and people have been waiting for his body to break down or his skills to erode for a few years now. And there’s a concern that his huge 2010 – which included 39 homers, 111 RBIs, a .312 batting average and career highs in on-base percentage (.394) and slugging percentage (.584) – was the product of a walk year and that he’s setting up his next team for an expensive fall.


But the Orioles have little choice. Their perfect free agent first baseman – Victor Martinez – is off the board and the other candidates are left-handed hitters, flawed or both.


That first paragraph, I have no issue with. Konerko would be an excellent addition to the Oriole lineup...if this were fantasy baseball. But this is real baseball and you have to account for the contract it will take to get Konerko to Baltimore.

There have been no details about the offer the Orioles made but I think we can make a few assumptions. Konerko just came off a contract where he was making $12 million per season. Anyone think he will leave the White Sox for a pay cut? Doubtful. Does anyone think the Orioles can lure him to Baltimore on a 2-year deal? A 3-year deal? I think the club will have to offer him at least a 4-year deal. So the 4-year, $48 mil offer they made to Victor Martinez seems to be a good jumping off point for Konerko. If anyone thinks we can sign him for less, please let me know.

So, should the Orioles offer this kind of money to Paul Konerko? Well, Konerko is a 34-year old first baseman coming off his career year. Yes, the stats for 2010 were fantastic (a .977 OPS in addition to all the stats Connolly recounted) but those were the best numbers he has ever put up by a good margin. Who wants to wager that he will put up those numbers again during his age 35-38 seasons? Not I.

Much of Konerko's season was fueled by a career-high BABIP (one that is not supported by his Line Drive percentage) and I think it's safe to assume that the composite of the previous three seasons (2007-2009) are a better indicator of what he will look like going forward. Top performances in terms of OPS+ from 2007-2009 for 1B/DH types:

    2007-2009         OPS+
1.  Pujols            178
2.  Fielder           151
3.  Teixeira          147
4.  Pena              145
5.  Berkman           143
6.  Gonzalez          142
.
.
.
16. Matsui            119
17. LaRoche           117
18. Butler            111
19. Konerko           111
20. Loney             110

There's Konerko, way down there with the 111 OPS+, under Adam LaRoche.

Guess who else isn't on this list (because he was a LF during much of this span)? Luke Scott who had a 114 OPS+.

So there's Adam LaRoche again, a player who could match Konerko's production over the next four years but would be available for less years and less money. Anybody think the Orioles need to give him $48 mil? How about extending Scott with that deal? And wouldn't you have to think twice about giving that kind of cash to Carlos Pena as well?

Konerko's going to be 35. He's due for a big decline over the course of a 4-year deal. And his 31-33 seasons were no great shakes to begin with. He has just come off his best season by far.

In the immortal words of Admiral Ackbar, "It's a trap!"

Giving Konerko a contract as I described would be a disaster at worst and a huge overpay for a slightly above average player at best.

But Connolly (and a lot of fans) think it's a disaster the Orioles have no choice but to walk right into. Why? Why should the Orioles do something that will be to the ultimate detriment of the team. They don't have to do this. There are other options that are good bets to produce like Konerko but come at far less financial risk. LaRoche is one. Derrek Lee is another. Adam Dunn is still another, given the talent gap between the two. (Yes, Dunn is a better player than Konerko...)

This is not the Konerko of 2005. Not even the Konerko of 2000. This is a soon-to-be 35-year old first baseman coming of a season we will never reproduce and heading for an age induced decline. Don't believe the hype and hope we dodge another bullet.

Live Blogging: Rangers @ Orioles - 8/21/10

2:57 We're going to try live blogging for the first time. Since this is my first time in the Baltimore press box, it seemed appropriate. Not much to report on except for batting practice at this point where Vlad Guerrero has been putting on a show. More to come...

3:19 The story tonight will be all about Rangers ace Cliff Lee. He is arguably the best pitcher in the American League and the Orioles are only OPSing .639 against lefties in 2010. Every run will come at a premium and Baltimore will have to hope that Brad Bergesen is able to continue his recent stretch of good starts to keep them in the game.

3:56 It a fair crowd tonight and people are still filing in. It's a muggy and still afternoon, can't imagine the ball will be carrying too well tonight. That's good news for Brad Bergesen.

A bit of a lineup shakeup for the Birds...Luke Scott is in the starting lineup but not batting cleanup for the first time in over a month. Wigginton will bat cleanup with Scott in the 5 hole.

4:13 An efficient first inning for Bergey. 9 pitches to retire the side in order in the top of the first. He struck out Andrus swinging, gave up a liner up the middle to Young and then got Hamilton to ground into a 6-4-3 double play. He's pounding the strike zone and that's a good thing.

Lee has bounced a couple warmup pitches...maybe he'll be wild tonight? Nah...

4:33 Nick Markakis struck out looking in the bottom of the 1st. That means he has struck out looking 4 straight times.

A quick check show that he had never struck out looking 3 times in a game before last night so the odds are good that he has never done it 4 times in a row! Crazy.

4:44 Lee and Bergesen are both cruising. Bergey just retired the Rangers 1-2-3 on 10 pitches in the top of the 3rd. 5 of his 9 outs have started with a grounder to Lugo at short. It's not a bad formula.

Lee was no-hitting the O's but Pie just singled on a sharp grounder up the middle.

4:52 I just saw Josh Bell's first career home run. It was an 0-1 pitch that Bell put in the centerfield seats. There was no dbout about it, it looked gone as soon as he hit it. The Orioles have Lee on the ropes, 2-0 in the bottom of the 3rd.

5:01 Bergey gave it up in the top of the 4th. Guerrero doubled in Josh Hamilton and would eventually score on a Bengie Molina sac fly to Adam Jones. Knotted at 2.

Josh Bell fun fact: That HR off Cliff Lee is only his 4th off a left handed pitcher in the last 4 seasons. Any level.

5:15 The Orioles took the lead back in a big way in the bottom of the 4th. Three homers including back-to-back solo jacks from Wigginton and Scott and a three-run shot from 3B Josh Bell, his 2nd of the game and his career. None were cheapies.

The Orioles are all over Cliff Lee and have handed Bergey a commanding 7-2 lead to start the 5th. Brad's only thrown 44 pitches so a good chance to go deep in the game and get the win.

5:28 That could have been much worse. The Rangers load the bases with 1 out but only get a single run to cut the Baltimore lead to 7-3. 22 pitches in that inning for Bergesen.

5:50 Bergesen is through 6 innings and only at 79 pitches. Lee is back out for the bottom of the 6th.

Last inning, Luke Scott fouled a ball back into the press box, just in front of me and to the right. It hit a laptop bag and bounced back into the stands. No damage as far as I can tell.

5:58 Josh Bell just missed his third home run as he lines one off the rightfield fence. Couldn't have missed it by more than a foot.

Roberts missed a double down the leftfield line (it was foul), then walked.

Lee has been lifted for Scott Feldman. Lee gives up 7 earned....so far.

6:05 Feldman promptly threw a wild pitch allowing the runners to advance, then Lugo legs out an infield single allowing Bell to score from 3rd.

O's lead the mighty Rangers 8-3.

6:13 The few Ranger fans that came out today seem to be filing out of the stadium. Cliff Lee gave up 8 earned runs, tying a career high.

The few that remained saw Josh Hamilton hit a 2 out, 2-run hiomer to center. That makes it an 8-5 Oriole lead and Mike Gonzalez is up in the bullpen.

Bergesen retires Vlad to end the 7th. This one's not over yet.

6:26 RP Michael Kirkman makes his major league debut for the Rangers and strikes out the side. Wiggy swinging, Scott looking and Jones swinging. O's still lead 8-5 after 7.

Mike Gonzalez coming in to pitch for the Orioles in the 8th.

6:38 Gonzalez promptly gives up a double to David Murphy on the first pitch, then retires Molina on a fly abll to Pie. Mitch Moreland then doubled in Murphy when Adam Jones dove for the liner but could not come up with it.

It looked like Jones was injured and was slow to get up but he just broke his belt. He was given and replacement and headed back out to centerfield.

Gonzo then struck out Andres Blanco and Brandon Boggs to get out of the jam. 8-6 Orioles.

6:49 O's could not add to their lead. Craig Tatum struck out looking for the third time tonight and Josh Bell could work no more magic. Koji Uehara is coming in to protect the 2-run lead and earn the Orioles at least a series split.

6:57 Koji saves the game in the 9th, striking out Vlad to finish the game.

The crowd was electric in the 9th this evening, on their feet screaming and shouting I haven't seen that kind of excitement at the Yard (at least, not in person) in years.

I started out the game thinking Cliff Lee would be the story, turned out to be Josh Bell. A coming out party or a flash of brilliance? These last 6 weeks of the season may tell us.

The Most Laissez-Faire Chase of a Fan on the Field in Baseball History

This is really a brilliant strategy by the police and OPACY security. It's like when I throw the ball to my dog during fetch and she will not bring it back to me because the game she wants to play is nit fetch but the game of  "watch my 2-legged chubby friend chase me around the yard". But if I don't participate, eventually she gets bored with the idea and comes back to me anyway. That's basically what they let this kid do.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Mark Reynolds

With the arrival of Mark Reynolds to Baltimore, we looked at the drama that will accompany him. There will be 475 ft game-winning homers followed by quadruple strikeout games. Highs and lows like Mt. Everest and Death Valley. Watching Reynolds in an Oriole uniform is going to be like dating the crazy bad girl who you know is bad for you. But she's fantastic in bed so you put up with it and you're happy...until she torches all your clothes.

But now we must look a little closer about the kind of player he is. On the surface, he hit .198 and struck out 211 times. So he must be a huge out machine, right? Well, kind of...

Leaders in outs made last season, with less than 625 plate appearances.

                      Outs
1. Carlos Lee         479
2. Jose Lopez         473
3. Alex Gonzalez      464
4. Ty Wigginton       461
5. Vernon Wells       451
6. Ryan Theriot       450
.
.
.
38. Ryan Howard       413
39. Lyle Overbay      413
40. Mark Reynolds     412
41. Michael Bourn     411
42. Carlos Gonzalez   407

Even is a very down year, Reynolds trails a bunch of people. Why? Because even though he strikes out a ton, he can take a walk. Best walk rates in the majors last season:

               BB%
Barton        16.0
Fielder       16.0
Pena          14.9
Pujols        14.7
Bautista      14.6
Heyward       14.6
Zobrist       14.0
Votto         14.0
Reynolds      13.9

In addition, he has a bit of speed for a big guy. He only grounded into 8 double plays last season. Yes, some of that is a function of all the strikeouts he piles up but he stole 24 bases in 2009 and 7 last season. This is not to suggest that he is a good base stealer, just that he has pretty good footspeed for a guy who goes 6'2" and 220 lbs.

Something else he brings to the table in his glove. Talking to Diamondback fans, they are quick to point out that Reynolds was primarily a shortstop in the minors, as recently as 2006. His 2007-2009 fielding numbers are pretty brutal but they steadily improved and he was able to post a UZR/150 of +2.5 for 2010. It could be that Arizona had to live with his learning curve and that Reynolds will be an average MLB third baseman with the glove. Maybe better. Regardless, he is assured of being better than the Miguel Tejada/Josh Bell combo the team had last season.

As far as a projection, I have no idea how Reynolds will fare with a move from the NL West to the AL East. You would have to think he will hit 30+ homers and slug north of .500. But he's coming from a pretty good offensive park in Arizona so Camden Yards will not give him much of a boost with his numbers, if any. He's going to be facing tougher pitching, pitchers who may be able to exploit his offensive weaknesses better but it wasn't like the guy was facing chumps in his old division. Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jiminez, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, Mat Latos, Jonathan Sanchez and, oh yeah, Tim Lincecum. Maybe the change in leagues won't impact him as much as we think.

Most projection systems are projecting a mild rebound. Even if he hits .235, thats going to give us some pretty good offensive production from the hot corner. I'm cautiously optimistic that he can do it.

The Silver Lining Team: The Best of a Dark Decade

Over the past 12 years, we O's fans have been subjected to the worst stretch of seasons in the team's history (at least since they came to Baltimore). Yes, even worse than the 50's and early 60's.

To that end, here's a team made up of the best Oriole players of the 00's. Some of this list is a bit depressing but this is just to remind us all of the bright spots before we mercifully close the door on this miserable decade (and more).


Catcher - Javy Lopez (2004-2006)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Lopez       .293  .343   .468   .811   72    46     0

Lopez was not a great defensive catcher but actually hit pretty well for two of the three seasons he was an Oriole. In the great wasteland of Oriole catchers during the aughts, Lopez stands alone.


1B - David Segui (2001-2004)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Segui       .287  .375   .425   .800   35    18     2

Another guy who looks great compared to the other guys at his position is Segui. Over portions of 3 seasons, Segui was a steady performer at the plate and flashed a pretty slick glove. He also reportedly showed some young guys the ropes in regards to chemically enhancing your play...but I'm leaving him in.


2B - Brian Roberts (2001-2009)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Roberts     .284  .355   .421   .776  316    76   255

Through all the ups and downs that Baltimore has had this decade, there has been one guy who fans could look to for excellence in every facet of the game. Roberts led all Orioles in doubles during the 00's, is in the top 5 for the entire American League and only second to Jeff Kent among all major league second basemen. Of course, he also led all Orioles in stolen bases with 255.

In addition to this, he has been a the face of the Orioles in the community and a fan favorite for a team that has been pretty horrendous.


3B - Melvin Mora (2000-2009)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Mora        .280  .355   .439   .794  250   158    82

As much as I have slagged Mora for his play in 2009, he has had a very nice career for Baltimore and will always be remembered as one of the great Oriole third baseman. Ok, maybe that's because after Brooks Robinson the pickings have been slim at the hot corner. But as a whole, Mora turned himself into a pretty decent fielder, had some monster seasons at the plate and was a steady presence for almost 10 seasons.

He leads all Orioles in hits and home runs for the decade.


SS - Miguel Tejada (2004-2007)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Tejada      .311  .362   .501   .863  146   102    17

It was easy to pick apart Tejada's game. He tended to lose power over the course of his stay, his baserunning mistakes were maddening and his fielding was not always great. But as a total package, Tejada was arguably the best player to don the black and orange this decade. He played a premium defensive position and he hit .300 and knocked in 20 homers his first three seasons (and just missed both marks in his 4th).

It's tough to replace that kind of production at shortstop as we have seen.


LF - Luke Scott (2008-2009)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Scott       .257  .339   .482   .821   52    47     2

Left field was an offensive black hole as B.J. Surhoff aged and then retired. But finally, Scott came over from Houston as one of the many spare parts in the Miguel Tejada trade and provided more than adequate offense from left in 2008 and 2009 (although he's been mostly a DH in '09).

He's a flawed hitter (can't hit lefties, streaky) but he's a lot of fun to watch and supplies a ton of raw power to the lineup.


CF - Adam Jones (2008-2009)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Jones       .274  .323   .428   .751   43    28    20

The jewel of the Erik Bedard trade has become the best Oriole center fielder of the decade after only parts of two seasons.


RF - Nick Markakis (2006-2009)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Markakis    .298  .367   .470   .837  158    75    35

Markakis was rushed from AA and struggled mightily during his first 2 months in the big leagues. Since then, he's been a .300 hitter with Gold Glove caliber defense in right. He leads all Orioles in OPB for the decade and was only second in OPS to Miguel Tejada.


DH - Aubrey Huff (2007-2009)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Huff        .282  .341   .473   .814  106    60     5

A mediocre hitter who had one monster season in 2008. Another failing of The Warehouse is that Huff is the best DH Baltimore had.


Bench - Ramon Hernandez (2006-2008)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Hernandez   .264  .328   .427   .755   69    60     5

Hernandez's value came mainly in 2006 and he dropped off precipitously after that. Rough decade for catchers. Thank God for Matt Wieters.


Bench - Jeff Conine (2000-2006)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Conine      .286  .342   .440   .782  122    66    32

Conine's flexibility in the field and decent bat made him a valuable role player early in the decade and would make him an excellent bench player for this team.


Bench - Mike Bordick (2000-2002)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Bordick     .261  .324   .418   .742   54    31    22

Bordick had a slick glove and managed to swing a pretty good bat for a "good glove, no hit" player. And we traded him to the Mets for Melvin Mora. Good value.


Bench - Tony Batista (2001-2003)

             AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS   2B    HR    SB
Batista     .245  .293   .433   .726   72    69    14

Batista manned third for three seasons and, while not good, was better than he seemed at the time. Lots of raw power, not much discipline.


SP - Erik Bedard (2002-2007)

             G    CG   SHO   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Bedard     114     1    1   40  34   639  254    58   3.83

By far, the best Oriole pitcher of the group and the best Oriole pitcher since Mike Mussina. In between stints to the DL, Bedard was dominating. While he was here, Beadard set the Oriole record for strikeouts in a season


SP - Jeremy Guthrie (2007-2009)

             G    CG   SHO   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Guthrie     92     2    0   27  32   343  160    78   4.12

Guthrie was a 1st round bust for Cleveland when Baltimore picked him up off of waivers before the 2007 season. He had surpassed all expectations to become the steadiest Oriole starter since he arrived (even including his sub-par 2009).


SP - Sidney Ponson (2000-2005)

             G    CG   SHO   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Ponson     160    22    4   53  64   639  343   126   4.84

I guess the thing ot point out about Ponson is that he had 22 complete games as an Oriole and is only behind Mike Mussina among Orioles who played after 1990.


SP - Daniel Cabrera (2004-2008)

             G    CG   SHO   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Cabrera    147     6    2   48  59   651  478    88   5.05

I cannot revisit D-Cab's Oriole career. I just can't. Oriole leader in strikeouts during the 00's.


SP - Rodrigo Lopez (2002-2006)

             G    CG   SHO   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Lopez      167     5    2   60  58   614  281   128   4.72

Lopz makes the list. Winningest Oriole pitcher of the decade.


RP - Buddy Groom (2000-2004)

             G    SV   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Groom      330    18  15  13   212   72    26   3.91

Groom was pretty good. The lefty pitched 285 innings over the 5 seasons with the Orioles and served as a workhorse when the O's needed him most.


RP - Jim Johnson (2006-2009)

             G    SV   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Johnson    116     9   6  10   88    54     9   3.66

Converted starter who dominated in a setup role. (A role he may soon be returning to.) Teamed up with George Sherrill to form a nice 1-2 punch at eh end of games.


RP - George Sherrill (2008-2009)

             G    SV   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Sherrill    99    51   3   6   97    46     9   3.71

When I start to worry about who will close for the O's in 2010, I remember that Sherrill arrived with no closing experience whatsoever. He was servicable in that role and made the All-Star team in '08.


RP - BJ Ryan (2000-2005)

             G    SV   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Ryan       391    42  15  19   436  182    29   3.57

Feels like Ryan should have more saves here. But Ryan was very good for 5 full seasons, striking out opposing batters at unbelieveable rates.


RP - Chris Ray (2005-2009)

             G    SV   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Ray        188    49  10  16   176   82    27   3.91

After Ryan split for Toronto, Ray stepped in and was every bit as good as the Oriole closer. An injury has derailed him a bit but there's hope he can return to form.


RP - Chad Bradford (2007-2008)

             G    SV   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Bradford   125     2   7  10   42    23     3   3.00

Of all the free agent relievers the Orioles signed this decade, Bradford was the only one to earn his money. He kept the ball in the park and was a nice matchup guy for righties.


RP - Jorge Julio (2001-2005)

             G    SV   W   L    K    BB    HR    ERA
Julio      281    83  11  24   257  133    42   4.20

Yeah, he makes the list. I think I have enough distance on Julio now to mention that he was really awesome in 2002. That's about all I have.