Preseason Predictions Revisited

As the season heads into its final week, it seemed like a good time to revisit my preseason predictions. As it turns out, they were fairly optimistic so they were also largely wrong. Here we go.

* Garrett Atkins won't be a regular with this team by June 15th. Somebody has to come to their senses. Nice clutch hitting in Tampa but that can't last.

Done and done. He was released before the end of June.

* Nick Markakis...breakout! Enos Slaughter for the new millennium. I recycling this from last season.

Yeah. Maybe someday but I'm done expecting anything more than average production from Nick at this point. Wrong.

* Brian Matusz....breakout! Don't be surprised if Matusz is having Tim Lincecum-type success (without the gawdy strikeout totals...but damn good ones) by the second half of the season.

Second half stats from Matusz and Lincecum over their first full season:

K/9    BB/9    K/BB   WHIP   HR   ERA
Matusz         7.0     3.2    2.19   1.30    8  4.27
Lincecum       8.6     4.0    2.15   1.30    5  3.38

Matusz has certainly improved as the season has gone along but not quite to the level I had expected. Close though. The walks are down, the strikeouts are up. Things are moving in the right direction.

* Matt Wieters...breakout! I'm going with the Keith Law prediction of "well over .300 with 20-25 homers" for his sophomore season.

Really wrong on this one. Wieters has actually taken a step back. Not a good sign.

* Adam Jones....no breakout! It would be hard to call this a breakout since he was pretty good last year but I expect that this is the year Jones starts to show people that Adrian Gonzalez is not necessary because the Orioles already have a bat as good in centerfield. Look for an average around .300 with something approaching 25 homers.

Not exactly. If you take away his hideous April, he looks like a guy who can hit at those levels. But he has basically held steady on his production from last year. Wrong.

* 80 wins. That's my guess. And with a little luck...you never know.

You wonder what would have happened if Buck Showalter was managing back in April. But the Orioles were lucky to avoid 100 losses. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

* Ben McDonald becomes a surprise hit on MASN.

He's been fine but no better than Brady Anderson.

* Kevin Millwood 2010 = Rick Sutcliffe 1992

It started out that way but certainly didn't end up there. Sutcliffe finished 1992 with 3.1 WAR for the Orioles. Millwood has 0.9 WAR. Millwood almost met the minimal expectations: league average pitching and eating innings. He pitched 180+ innings, which was good, but a 5.29 ERA is only good for an ERA+ of 80, which is not so good. Wrong.

* Felix Pie forces something this summer...a trade, a position change....something.

Pie has kind of made himself the forerunner for the LF job in 2011 since his return from injury earlier in the season. But a batting line of .274/.304/.401 isn't going to lock it down for him. Thus, I doubt the team makes any moves assuming that Pie will be the man. Not so much on this one.

That was kind of depressing. Anyone ready for 2011?

Orioles Are Switching It Up

Saw this on Twitter las night from CamdenRevival:

Wow, forgot the Orioles have four switch-hitters in the lineup. Though I wish two were named Murray & Singleton. #Orioles #that70sOsShow

Damn. He was right. I can't believe I missed that. Brian Roberts, Matt Wieters, Josh Bell and Cesar Izturis were all in the lineup. The first time it happened was August 3rd. Just over 14 years ago, to the day, was the last time the O's featured a quartet of switch hitters. (August 2, 1996)

Also pointed out by CamdenRevival, the four switch hitters appeared in consecutive spots in the batting order as it turned. Roberts was 1st, while Wieters, Bell and Izturis filled spots 7-9. That also happened for the first time on August 3rd and had never happened in Oriole history before.

How do I know all this? I posted this last season when it appeared that Wieters, Roberts, Izturis and Zaun might make up a quartet of switch hitters. But Izturis was hurt and Zaun got traded shortly after Wieters' call up from Norfolk.

This quartet will be short lived as Izturis will probably be gone after the season and there are no switch hitters in AAA. Although, the next guys are in Bowie and are both shortstops (Pedro Florimon and Greg Miclat) so maybe they'll be here sooner than we think.

5 Biggest Disappointments for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles

The problems with the Orioles in 2010 have been multifold. But some of the season's disappointments have been greater than the others and contributed more to this disappointing season than the others. After some examination, here are the depressing top 5.

5.  Brian Roberts' Injury

Although many of us bloggers raised red flags when the Orioles signed Brian Roberts to a 4-year, $40 million extension last season (some of us, before the fact), I don't think any of us expected age and/or injury to start catching up to Roberts so fast.

Roberts being sidelined early in the season with a variety of back problems hobbled the Orioles' struggling offense even more as a brutal rotation of leadoff hitters tried desperately to fill in. Oriole leadoff hitters have combines for a .302 OBP and .645 OPS.

Roberts could return as early as this weekend but fans have to wonder about his durability and effectiveness as he plays through the 3.5 years left on his contract.


4. Adam Jones' Glove

Adam Jones has had his struggles at the plate this season but has come around of late and, I feel, he'll be just fine in the long run at the plate. Despite his Gold Glove last season, Jones is not showing a great glove in center. He plays shallow and repeatedly let's balls go over his head. He takes bad routes on balls. He sometimes misplays the routine.

Jones, in terms of UZR, is the 3rd worst fielding centerfielder in baseball. UZR does not always tell the whole story, especially for partial seasons, but last season he has the third worst UZR/150 among regular centerfielders as well.

The most frustrating thing about this is that Jones has all the tools: great speed, great leaping ability, an arm that rivals that of Nick Markakis. But he just hasn't put it together in the field this season.


3. Nolan Reimold

After a breakout year in which he forced himself onto the Baltimore roster way ahead of schedule, Nolan Reimold fell off a cliff. Hitting .279/.365/.466 over 104 games during his rookie campaign, Reimold attracted serious Rookie of the Year consideration before having to have surgery on his Achilles tendon toward the end of the season.

I don't believe that Reimold was completely healthy to start the season as he hit an anemic .205/.302/.337 with Baltimore before a May 12th demotion. But being back in Norfolk has not helped matters as he has only .212/.303/.335 since his return and shows no sign of coming around. Reimold has been playing some first base for the Tides and, perhaps, if he is fully healthy in 2011, he could still fulfill some of that promise while filling a need for Baltimore. But that looks like a real longshot at this point.


2. Brian Matusz

Continuing the theme of disappointing young talent, Brian Matusz has yet to become the staff ace that he was predicted to be when he was promoted to Baltimore late last season. Sure, he was a bit rushed to the majors and, sure, I expected him to struggle a bit at the beginning of the season. But as the most polished member of "the Calvary", I thought Matusz would have started showing some life by now. He hasn't.

Matusz's changeup, his best pitch, gets hit pretty hard. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, neither to a great degree but they aren't moving in the right direction. Granted, his FIP and xFIP are significantly better than his 5.21 ERA. But while Tillman, Arrieta and Bergesen were kind of expected to scuffle through this season, Matusz was expected to be a respectable pitcher by now. He's not and he needs help to get there.


1. Matt Wieters

The most highly touted catching prospect since Joe Mauer, one of the most praised minor league bats of all time, one of the few prospects that basically had no criticism from any scout or analyst about his offensive game, Matt Wieters has been a anemic bat in the Oriole lineup. After a torrid September, many were predicting a breakout season for Wieters (including me). Predictions called for average, power and great control of the strike zone. It hasn't happened.

Only Jason Kendall, Yadier Molina and Russell Martin have lower ISO's among catchers. Ditto for average. Only A.J. Pierzynski has a lower OBP.

Were all the scouts wrong? I don't think so (or at least, I hope not). But Wieters' struggles are the latest indictment of Terry Crowley's work with young hitters. Jones hasn't advanced much. Wieters has struggled. Reimold floundered. It seems that hitters develop in spite of Crowley rather than because of him.

Wieters needs help to get his head back on straight. A new coaching staff could do wonders for that.

SaviOr

Raw Power...Again. This Time with Splits!

I was playing around with the new splits over on FanGraphs.com and discovered that they had batting stats for various zones of the field. So I broke down the ISO stats for some of the Oriole hitters to see where their power was for 2009

Nick Markakis

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.138
as L to Center      0.126
as L to Right       0.291

Not surprising that Nick's power comes when he pulls the ball toward Eutaw Street. 14 of his 18 homers went to rightfield. But there is power to right as he hit 24 doubles while going the other way.

Brian Roberts

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.089
as L to Center      0.087
as L to Right       0.448
as R to Left        0.101
as R to Center      0.182
as R to Right       0.125

When Brian Roberts is batting lefthanded, don't let him turn on one. He hit 15 of his 16 homers to right while batting lefty as well as 20 doubles. His righthanded power is more modest but more evenly distributed.

Luke Scott

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.097
as L to Center      0.368
as L to Right       0.325

I've always thought of Scott as a dead pull hitter and he's got some great power to right but his power is even better to center. 12 of his 25 homers went to center.

Nolan Reimold

Split                ISO
as R to Left        0.288
as R to Center      0.215
as R to Right       0.143

Good power to the pull side, pretty good up the middle to. Even going the other way is not bad with 5 extra base hits over only 358 ABs.

Matt Wieters

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.269
as L to Center      0.085
as L to Right       0.167
as R to Left        0.139
as R to Center      0.250
as R to Right       0.108

The splits for Wieters are uneven but his power as a lefty to left field is what kept me encouraged during his early struggles. Even when he was swinging late, he still showed fantastic opposite field power. 5 of his 9 homers went to the opposite field.

Adam Jones

Split                ISO
as R to Left        0.321
as R to Center      0.110
as R to Right       0.213

Power to the pull side. Jones did hit all 3 of his triples to right as well as 3 homers displaying good opposite field power.

Felix Pie

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.153
as L to Center      0.224
as L to Right       0.273

This is what is so tantalizing about Felix Pie. His power is close to Reimold's output and he's a fantastic defender. It's easy to see him pushing his way into the lineup during Spring Training. If Reimold is DH'ing as he works himself back into shape after Achilles surgery, Pie will have ample opportunity to impress in Sarasota.

The Crystal Ball '10: Matt Wieters

I was at MASN's Blogger Night at Camden Yards the night that the decision to call Matt Wieters up to Baltimore was announced. The mood was electric. It is rare, in these dozen years of losing, to see that kind of excitement among Oriole fans and it was easy to see the crushing expectations that were placed on the shoulders of the young catcher.

Many fans were disappointed in Wieters 2009 debut and many national baseball writers are significantly lowering expectations.

Did those expectations get to him? Maybe but I doubt it. It may seem like Wieters marched through the minor leagues like a hot knife through butter but the reality is that at each level he struggled for a time, then destroyed the league. Outside of A+ Frederick, he has to make adjustments at every level.

I predicted it would take Wieters a full two months of games to adjust to major league pitching.

                      G    AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS    HR
May 29th-July 28th    39   .273   .322   .388   .711     3
July 29th - EOS       57   .298   .352   .428   .780     6  

Those end of the season numbers include a torrid September/October where Wieters hit .333/.395/.486 with 4 homers.

Wieters was just short of being a league average hitter (97 OPS+) and as an American League catcher that was good enough for the third-best hitting catcher in the league. Not bad for a rookie.

So enormous expectations aside, it was a very solid rookie season for Matt Wieters. His defense improved as well and projections show that he will be above average in blocking pitches and by the end of the season his Caught Stealing numbers were right around average for a catcher not named Laird.

And the fact that he improved as the season went along gives me hope that he's making the necessary adjustments to succeed in the majors. I expect big thing from Wieters in 2009. Look, he OPS'ed 1.014 in the minors, I think it's doubtful that his power just disappeared. Besides, 5 of his 9 homers were to the opposite field. He even hit a homer off of Chad Bradford! You know how hard that is? Big power in that bat.

If you've seen my WAR projections, you know I expect Wieters to OPS .825 in his sophomore season with a chance for a quantum leap to even more. Relax, Orioles fans. our savior is here.

*Keith Law photo courtesy of Matt Wieters Facts

Base Hits: 7/31/2009

Reaction to the George Sherrill Trade:

Rob Neyer of ESPN:

I'm not going to criticize the Dodgers for trading Josh Bell. Who knows? Maybe Casey Blake will live forever.

What I will do is send up a big hip-hip-hooray for the Orioles, because the single best thing any rebuilding manager can do, ever, is trade a relief pitcher in late July for a couple of solid prospects.

Let me repeat for anyone not paying attention: a relief pitcher....

If I were an Orioles fan, I would be organizing a party right now.

Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times:

The Orioles won the deal by far, however. Yes, Sherrill is a very good left-handed reliever. However, he's already 32 and is about to get extremely expensive in his second year of arbitration. Also, did I mention his career high for innings pitched is 53.1? For that, the Dodgers gave up someone who is certain to anchor the Orioles' order in a few years and an intriguing arm....

The Orioles did very well here, while the Dodgers clearly overpaid...

Matt Pouliot of NBC Sports:

So much for the thought that the Orioles would have to be overwhelmed to move their closer...

(Josh) Bell isn't the problem...Johnson is the weak link here. The Orioles should have insisted on a better second prospect than the 21-year-old. It'd be very disturbing if they let the fact that his father, Dave, was a former Oriole influence their thinking here...

...I think the Dodgers did quite well here...

Keith Law of ESPN:

The main return for Baltimore is third baseman Josh Bell, who alone is probably worth more in asset value than a good but sub-Joe Nathan, 60-inning-a-year reliever with two years of control left. Bell is a strong, athletic switch-hitter with ridiculous bat speed from the left side -- so much that his bat might be in and out of the zone too quickly. He has improving power that probably is above-average to plus in the future. He's a little rough at third but projects to stay at the position, and he has the athleticism to be above-average there with more work....

The second player Baltimore acquired, right-hander Steve Johnson, has a solid to average fastball that will touch 92 with a fringe to average changeup and a below average to average breaking ball. But Johnson has a long arm action; he shows the ball to the center fielder, pronates his forearm and comes around with a "pie-thrower" action that really looks like it's costing him command. He's a local kid and the son of former Orioles pitcher and current Orioles broadcaster Dave Johnson, so there's some karmic value there, but he looks more like a good organizational pitcher than a prospect right now.

Drew Forrester of WNST:

They’ll survive without Sherrill, obviously. I wonder, though, did the O’s inquire about Cliff Lee before the Indians dealt him to the Phillies for a couple of decent prospects and some towels? Was there ever a consideration to approach the A’s about Matt Holliday and use him as a DH and 4th outfielder?...

Selling off good players is what the Pirates do. And we all know they stink....

I wanted to be a seller by jettisoning the scrubs, not the good players.

Good teams acquire good players at the deadline.

Bad teams trade good players at the deadline.


R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs.com:

In Bell, the Orioles receive a 22-year-old switch-hitting third baseman with impressive power potential. His ISO in Double-A this season is .203, but there are some questions as to whether he’s going to stick at third for the long haul or move to a corner – either first or left/right field. Bell has had issues with strikeouts in the past which reached their apex in 2008. His walk rate has grown impressive and his strikeout numbers are down for this year, so he’s definitely an interesting player to watch for in the next few years....

The two seem like a nice coup by the Orioles in exchange for a two years and a third of Sherrill as they continue to build with impressive young talent.


Frostking of Camden Crazies:

I have mild concerns about Bell sticking at third long-term, but if he keeps hitting this well then there’s a possibility that he’ll begin 2010 as the Orioles starting third-baseman. Johnson is pretty good as a throw-in and might develop into an interesting arm. I don’t immediately love the deal, but I sure like it and it was the right thing to do. There will be talk about who takes over as closer, but given the team’s record I don’t think that really matters right now - a lot of fans (this one included) will certainly miss seeing Flat Breezy coming out from the pen though. Not a steal (the O’s come out maybe $1-3 M ahead), but Andy MacPhail once again moves the team closer to contention.


neal s at The Loss Column:

I think we’ll see Bell here either in late 2010 or 2011 at the latest — and he’ll be here as a third baseman. You can book that.

Johnson’s harder to project, but if he keeps doing what he’s doing I can see him making a bid as a back-rotation guy in maybe 2011 or 2012.

On paper this looks like another MacPhail winner. I’ll miss Sherrill, but I’ll also wish him the best out in LA. It’ll be nice to watch him pitch in October.

Cliff Corcoran from SI.com:

The reason the Orioles should be clicking their heels over this deal, and Dodgers fans should hot under the collar, is Josh Bell. He's not true blue-chipper, but as a 22-year-old switch-hitting third baseman who was hitting .296/.386/.497 in Double-A this season, he has a high ceiling and fills a big hole in their organization. Bell's defense at the hot corner could use some work, but he's already shown an ability to improve in the field.

On the chat rooms, comment sections and Twitter, the casual fan base is split between hating the deal and loving the deal. That's understandable since Sherrill has become a fan favorite in Baltimore but I love the move. It made the team younger and addressed an organizational need.

*****

The Baltimore Orioles are 14-24 against the AL East. But they are 30-33 against the rest of the league. We're getting close guys/ As bad as the pitching has been, we are nearly a .500 team outside of the AL East.

*****

Patrick Sullivan of The Baseball Analysts thinks the Orioles are close to competing in the AL East:

Given their youth, Baltimore might consider tacking on a free agent to the rotation. They will also have to cobble together a bullpen. But as it stands right now this Orioles starting staff looks like it will be able to post a season's worth of above average pitching in 2010 and quite a bit better than that in 2011 and out. When you combine this with their offensive nucleus, the Orioles appear positioned to make the moves necessary to put a contender on the field.

*****

Bergey's on the DL!

What good is having Matt Wieters on the team is he can't heal the sick and make the lame pitch again?

*****

Speaking of Wieters, his 40 games in the wilderness is over. Time for the miracles. Wieters has hit .271/.320/.392 but has hit .423/.444/.462 in the last 7 games so he's stepping it up for August.

*****

Cal Ripken Jr. will be building more youth ball parks in Baltimore and one will be something special:

The former Orioles great plans to build five youth ballparks - including one at the site of the former Memorial Stadium.

Ripken's plan is to turn the little-used field at the stadium site into a multipurpose, artificial turf sports complex.

God bless Cal Ripken. Baseball at the Memorial Stadium site will continue.

On Matt Wieters: A Quick Rebuttal

I was reading a post by blog-buddy frostking over at Camden Crazies about Matt Wieters and how he has underwhelmed thus far, especially with the bat. It's worth reading and he makes some good observations about the cause of some of these trouble.

However, he misses on a couple things that I will point out here. First, on Wieter's patience at the plate:

I don’t know if he’s just over-anxious or has some issues with pitch recognition...but until he takes a more patient approach at the plate I don’t think we’ll see quite the hitter we expected.

Well, the walks aren't there and (as frostking's data seems to indicate) Wieters is chasing ball outside of the zone. But he's not impatient.

Pitches per Plate Appearance for Baltimore Orioles:

           P/PA
Wieters     4.1
Reimold     4.0
ZAUN        4.0
Roberts     4.0
Salazar     3.9
 
 

Wieters is being as patient as Oriole at the plate, he's just having issues with pitch recognition. And why is that? I have a theory.

Matt Wieters Left/Right Splits:

                 PA   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS 
Wieters vs RHP   80  .316  .350  .461  .821
Wieters vs LHP   69  .222  .290  .302  .611
 
 

Wieters is struggling against lefties in the majors and has been done no favors as Baltimore has been facing an unprecedented number of LHP's since Wieters arrival. A whopping 46% of Wieters' plate appearances have been against lefthanded pitching. By comparison, Brian Roberts has only faced lefties 34% of the time. Facing this much lefthanded pitching just doesn't happen over the course of a season.

So Wieters has had to make the toughest transition in sports against the best lefthanded pitchers in the world and only faced lefties 28% of the time during his entire (albeit brief) minor league career. Is it any wonder he has struggled? He's barely seen any professional lefthanded hurlers before May.

Besides, I've already told you that Christ in a Catcher's Mask needs to wander in the wilderness for 40 games before he comes to town and starts dropping the miracles. Last night was game 39 (he went 4-5) and the last 6 games he is OPSing .933.

And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Baltimore to be born?

Keep Your Eye On The Ball

Last night's loss to the Yankees (via a walk-off Matsui homer) was a bummer. No doubt. But where's the sense of perspective? The blogs, forums and comments on various sources for venting spleens are full of angst, bitterness and lots of self-pity.

But let's keep our eye on the ball Oriole fans. We trotted out a rookie pitcher who didn't have his best stuff but battled and scratched his way through 6 innings all the while holding arguably the best lineup in the league to one run. 3 hits, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts. To paraphrase the song, if you can pitch there, you can pitch anywhere.

And our rookie catcher went 1-3 with a walk.

Losses still suck but let's keep in in perspective. Last night was a win for the Orioles in many ways.

Base Hits: 6/29/2009

A rambling version of Base Hits on this Monday. A lot to talk about...

Some good news from Birdland this weekend. Firstly, they won the series with the Nationals 2-1.
Secondly, The Warehouse came to terms with 2009 1st round pick Matt Hobgood. Here's the video from The Baltimore Sun's website.




The kid sure says all the right things. I imagine he'll end up in Bluefield with the rest of the high school signees.

Also a couple of nice articles about Orioles players from the national media. Marc Hulett writes about the Oriole acquisition of Cleveland farmhand Michael Aubrey this week for FanGraphs.com:

The 27-year-old former Tulane University start has below-average power for a MLB first baseman, but he can hit for a solid batting average with gap power and he is an above-average fielder. It's a very nice low-risk, medium-reward move by an organization that is getting better by the season.

I know nothing about Michael Aubrey in particular but organizational depth at the corner infield positions is something the O's really need and Aubrey can't hurt.

Also at FanGraphs.com, Dave Cameron takes a look at underrated rookie pitcher Brad Bergesen.
When you can command a sinking fastball and have an off-speed pitch to keep opposite handed hitters at bay, you can be an effective major league starter. Bergesen doesn’t have the same potential as some of the more hyped arms in the Orioles system, but don’t discount his strengths and write him off as a no-stuff guy who belongs in the bullpen. Command, sinker, and change-up - it’s the recipe for a solid back-end starting pitcher.

Bergesen takes a lot of criticism from many analysts due to his anemic strikeout rate in the majors. It's a fair criticism but you also have to consider a couple of other stats too.

Ground Ball percentage among AL starters:

                   GB%
Rick Porcello     56.9%
Roy Halladay      56.3%
Brad Bergesen     54.0%
Felix Hernandez   51.3%
 

If Bergesen can keep inducing grounders at this rate, he's going to hang around awhile. Interesting to see fellow rookie Rick Porcello on this list. Halladay and Hernandez strike out a ton of batters but Porcello doesn't have that kind of stuff. Let's take a closer look.

            GB%   K/9   BB/9   K/BB
Porcello   56.9%  5.03  3.09   1.63
Bergesen   54.0%  4.30  2.04   2.11
 

Odd that Porcello is touted for Rookie of the Year and gets none of the criticism that Bergesen gets. He only strikes out one extra batter per nine and walks an extra batter per nine.

If Bergesen keeps the walks and the ball down, he's going to have some success in this league. If he can edge his strikeout rate closer to 6 K/9, he could be a great one.

Shysterball had a funny post regarding Sindney Ponson's positive test for a stimulant during the WBC.

It includes the killer line, "The only non-natural substances in Ponson's pee-pee are Yoo-Hoo and failure."

Well played, sir.

Speaking of Shysterball, he also has a post up about Matt Wieters at the NBC baseball blog, Circling The Bases questioning the divinity of the Oriole's rookie catcher.

But a funny thing happened on the way to immortality: Wieters has proved human.

Twenty-one games into his big league career he's at .243/.300/.405. Yesterday he dropped a ball at home plate, turning a sure out into a run for the Nationals. Overall, he's thrown out just two of 15 base stealers and has committed three errors in less than a month.

Now, this post is mostly tongue in cheek but I wonder about Dan Connolly:

Sunday, though, it was back to work at the old ballpark. And let’s just say my Saturday was a whole lot better than Orioles catcher Matt Wieters' Sunday.

The phenom went hitless in three at-bats, made his third throwing error in four games and dropped a ball to wipe out what would have been a sure out at the plate.

Afterward, Wieters was typically calm -- saying he’s working on his defense, and he’s not worried about a bad game...

But, here’s the funny thing: The way things are going right now, Wieters (.234 average, two homers, six RBIs) is not the Orioles’ best candidate for Rookie of the Year. Outfielder Nolan Reimold (.286, 9 homers, 20 RBIs) is, with pitcher Brad Bergesen (5-2, 3.76 ERA) also ahead of the backstop.

Look, it's not even June yet. It's certainly fun to dream on Matt Wieters but who really thought he was going to show up and start dominating right away? Wieters dominated High A immediately, struggled for a couple weeks in AA before taking off and was overmatched his first month in Norfolk before beginning to bludgeon opposing pitching.

Based on that, you had to figure for an adjustment time of at least 2 months in the majors. And you have to forget his cumulative numbers at this point; even with his recent struggles he is OPSing .786 the last two weeks. It's in fits and starts...but he's coming.

Besides, Jesus wandered in the desert for 40 days before showing up in Galilee and dropping miracles on everybody? We'll call Wieters first 40 games his "desert period".

Koji Uehara goes on the DL and David Hernandez gets recalled from Norfolk. One has to wonder if Uehara's future on this team is as a reliever. He can't go more than 5 innings, at least not while staying healthy. Of course, the prospect of Hernandez and Jason Berken going up against the lineups in the AL East for the rest of the season is frightening.

Speaking of pitching, Braves 22-year-old rookie pitcher Tommy Hanson continues to dominate all comers. On Sunday, he shut out the Red Sox for six innings and Atlanta eventually won 2-1.

I bring this up to compare and contrast Hanson against Chris Tillman. Both started the season in the International League.

           IP     K   BB  WHIP  ERA
Hanson    66.1   90   17  .859  1.48
Tillman   72.2   75   21 1.142  2.97
 

Not quite as dominant but he's still striking out more than 1 batter per inning. And look at the tiny walk rate of 2.6 per nine. The concern about Tillman was always his control but he seems to be addressing it. How long until he shows up in Baltimore?

Adam Dunn launched a monster shot off of David Hernandez on Sunday, way out on Eutaw Street. At first, I thought he had actually hit the warehouse on the fly but it wasn't even the longest shot in Eutaw Street history. For more, we go to Eutaw Street expert, Roar from 34:

Adam Dunn stroked a 442-foot home run in the second inning of Sunday's 5-3 loss to the Nationals that one-hopped the warehouse. Dunn's blast was the second-longest Eutaw Street home run during game action, missing Henry Rodriguez's 443-foot shot on June 17, 1997, by just a foot.

I never saw the Henry Rodriguez shot but Adam Dunn's shot was an absolute monster. The biggest Eutaw shot I've ever seen..by a lot!

A plug now for Roar From 34:

Roar from 34's Eutaw Street Week

Monday, June 29 through Sunday, July 5 will be "Eutaw Street Week" on Roar from 34. All content posted during the week will have a Eutaw Street theme or connection, including additional entries to The Eutaw Street Chronicles and an interview with Greg Bader, director of communications for the Orioles, about the new 2110 Eutaw Street promotion.

I'm a big fan of The Eutaw Street Chronicles so some good stuff to look forward to this week.

While I'm beating the drum for marginal players (Oscar Salazar...), I've got to say some nice things about RP Matt Albers. He's really been pitching well since his latest callup. A 1.29 ERA over 14 innings for the month of June. If only he could cut down on the walks. A nice 7-8-9 inning combo would be Albers-Johnson-Sherrill (at least as long as Sherrill's here...).

Tough week as the Orioles return to the AL. Boston in for three at the Yard and then another road trip west to take on the Angels. Can they manage .500? Eh...

The Future...Is Now?

Over the last couple of weeks, the Orioles have proven that they cannot even manage to beat the dregs of the American League and find themselves in last place with the worst record in the league and the third worst record in baseball. Coming into Saturday's game, the Orioles had only managed to score a measly 1.7 runs per game for the month of June and it is reflected in the record. This offense was supposed to be decent this season but an anemic offense with the woeful pitching staff makes for a long summer in Baltimore. Does the recent outburst against Atlanta mean the slump is over? I'll believe it when they start doing it against the American League; facing NL hurlers is akin to playing AAA teams.

Instead of whining about the present, let's look to the Orioles' brighter future. There are more important issues than the standings for the Orioles and most of these players won't be here when Baltimore starts winning. How are the players under age 26playing?

Adam Jones:

The last couple weeks have seen Jones flailing and missing with 11 strikeouts and only 1 walk. The slump has worsened as he posted just a .100/.136/.250 line last week.

Jones has broken out this year, now he has to show he can continue to make adjustments.

Nick Markakis:

Since May 15th, Nick Markakis has put up a .211/.262/.307 line for a .569 OPS with only one home run.

That is easily the worst stretch of games for Nick since the first month of his rookie season. Is he injured? Let's hope not. I picked Markakis for a big breakout this season but so far he's gone the other direction. Sometimes, it's hard to remember that Markakis and Reimold are both 25.

Nolan Reimold:

For a guy who was considered a fringy prospect (I don't remember seeing him on anyone's Top 100 list except for Keith Law in recent years), Reimold has been a revelation the last two years. He stayed healthy and dominated the Carolina League last year and didn't miss a step when he showed up at Norfolk this year. Since coming to Baltimore, he is getting on base at a .356 clip (always a concern for him in the minors), has hit 7 home runs in his first 28 games and posted a .316/.435/.526 line last week alone. He appears to be getting better as the weeks go along. The future in the Oriole outfield is bright indeed.

Robert Andino:

I don't think that Robert Andino is ever going to hit well enough to be a starter in the Majors but his glove is giving me enough reason to think I may not hate the Hayden Penn trade in a couple years. A true great glove at short, Andino could be a valuable bench player/utility infielder for the next few years. The bat is Izturis-esque but so is the glove. He's actually played a better short than Izturis in his limited opportunities.

Matt Wieters:

"Matt Wieters Can And Does Assume The Double Play."

In his short professional career, Wieters has shown the ability to move up a level, struggle for a period of time, make adjustments and then destroy opposing pitchers. It looks like he's starting to do that in Baltimore.

Wieters hit .400/.438/.467 last week. He still doesn't have a home run and he still doesn't have an RBI but the signs are there that he's starting to adjust. No offense to Gregg Zaun but he's already a better hitter as he scuffles along.

Brad Bergesen:

When you have a trio of second tier pitching prospects like Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez and Jason Berken, (as opposed to top tier prospects like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta) you really have to feel lucky if just one of them works out as a starter and truly blessed if another of them ends up as a quality reliever.

The Orioles look to be lucky so far as Brad Bergesen is making his way to being a solid 3rd or 4th guy in a major league rotation. His stuff is not great, he's a sinker/slider pitcher who doesn't look like he's going to strike a bunch of guys out but he seems to be learning how to get the best out of his stuff and let the defense behind him do the heavy lifting.

Base Hits: 6/12/2009

I am taking down my little "Value Over Daniel Cabrera" widget from the left hand side of the blog. The final results in terms of ERA:

Daniel Cabrera 2008 - 5.25
Daniel Cabrera 2009 - 5.85
Adam Eaton - 8.56
Mark Hendrickson - 5.53
Alfredo Simon - 9.95
Rich Hill - 5.24
Koji Uehara - 4.37

The whole point of the exercise was to decipher what The Warehouse was thinking in regards to the rotation this year. It seemed they were looking for stiffs to eat innings and buy time for the kids in the minors. But then they let go a "proven stiff" in Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera had proven that he was just that kind of pitcher and had proven it in the AL East. It was kind of ironic that they let Cabrera go just at the time he had proven he was forever to be mediocrity but an innings eater. Cabrera was, for the first time in his career, a perfect fit for the Baltimore Orioles and they cut him loose!

Now, you can certainly disagree with me about Cabrera in specific but you have to admit that nobody they brought in has done a better job that D-Cab, save for Koji Uehara. Certainly the trio of stiffs that were in the rotation on Opening Day (Hendrickson, Eaton, Simon) were a downgrade.

I don't have many criticisms of Andy MacPhail so far but his assemblage (or lack thereof) of a starting rotation for the 2009 Orioles has been a glaring and abject failure.

Anyway, it's hardly fair to compare the rotation anymore now that some kids are starting to fill those roles. I've made my argument.

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Want the human interest stories behind the 2009 Oriole draftees? Matt at Roar From 34 has compiled them all.

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I'm not sure that I've said it before (and he certainly doesn't need the traffic from me!) but the Matt Wieters Facts site (put together by Frost King) is still quite entertaining to me.

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I love me some Old Bay. And I love me some Orioles.

I don't reprint press releases very often but if I was in Baltimore on Saturday, I would be at Camden Yards for this promotion:

OLD BAY SPICES UP CAMDEN YARDS

The Orioles and Charm City Cakes help celebrate the 70th BIRTHDAY of a Baltimore icon.

What:

Cake creator extraordinaire Duff Goldman of Baltimore’s Charm City Cakes will help celebrate the 70th birthday of Baltimore’s own OLD BAY Seasoning prior to the Orioles-Braves game with the unveiling of a larger-than-life cake that replicates the iconic yellow and blue can with the red lid. Duff will also be throwing out the first pitch and the first 10,000 attendees age 15 and over will receive an OLD BAY mallet

When: Saturday, June 13th
Presentation begins at 6:30pm

Where: Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves Game
Camden Yards


Background:

For 70 years, this distinctive blend of twelve herbs and spices has been a time-honored taste of summer. Just as the recipe hasn’t changed, neither has the iconic yellow and blue can. Once only enjoyed by a lucky few along the Chesapeake Bay, OLD BAY® Seasoning has gained fans all across the country. Best known as THE seasoning for shrimp, salmon, crab and other seafood dishes, these days, OLD BAY is used to flavor hamburgers, chicken, pizza, pasta, vegetable dishes and more. For information visit www.oldbay.com

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I like Melvin Mora. I have enjoyed watching him through out his Oriole career. But he's done. The Orioles should not pick up his option for the 2010 season. I'll probably harp on that fact as the season goes on but Mora is doing a pretty good job of sealing that fate himself.

Mora is OPSing .653 which puts his bat within shouting distance of Cesar Izturis (.620) and even Felix Pie (.595). But Mora is no longer a great glove or a kid. It's probably going to get worse. Month by month, his OPS has dropped from .940 in April (over 7 games) to .647 in May and a meager .417 in June.

He'll probably play out the year since the Orioles don't have many internal options but 2009 should be his Oriole swansong.

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Some sage words form Rick Dempsey about Jeremy Guthrie:

Usually it is pretty easy for me to watch a pitcher and see what he is doing right or wrong. A lot of times all you have to do is watch the flight and spin of the ball, and it can tell you exactly what you want to know....

From what I've seen, its not just one thing. There's a lot going on right now that nobody can figure out except Jeremy.

Obviously, I don't see every pitch of every game like Rick does (and based on the copious notes and score keeping I saw him taking during the MASN Oriole Blogger Night last month, he's certainly paying close attention) but I was working on a post about Jeremy Guthrie and trying to figure out why he was giving up so many homers this year. After pouring over Pitch F/X data, pitch types, pitch sequence, the counts , his velocity, the types of hitters he's facing...everything I could think of. But there's no common denominator! They're launching home runs off of every kind of pitch he throw without discrimination. It doesn't happen when he's behind in the count. He velocity and control (at least, his walk rates and amount of strikes he throws) are consistent with his first two seasons.

So I've got to go with Rick on this one. It not just one thing...but you would like to think Guthrie can solve it sooner than later.

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It's been a rough week for the Orioles but the Braves have been having trouble scoring runs too. Could this weekend be the remedy for the Baltimore win column?

Let's go O's!