Luke Scott has Wacky Opinions, Sky Still Blue

Luke Scott has revealed his thoughts to David Brown of Yahoo Sports on a myriad of subjects: hunting, guns, politics, Mark Reynolds, Ted Nugent and...yeah, the birthplace of the sitting President of the United States.


DB: You don't think that Obama wasn't born in the United States, do you?


LS: He was not born here.


DB: [Sighs].


LS: That's my belief. I was born here. If someone accuses me of not being born here, I can go — within 10 minutes — to my filing cabinet and I can pick up my real birth certificate and I can go, "See? Look! Here it is. Here it is." The man has dodged everything. He dodges questions, he doesn't answer anything. And why? Because he's hiding something.


I'll use a variation of a fact I use a bunch when people get upset at the actions or words of a professional athlete: Hey, nobody said ballplayers had to be bright. These guys are paid to hit and catch a ball, they didn't go to college on academic scholarships. Many of them fit the stereotype of the dumb jock. So why would I hold them up to a higher standard than other dummies I meet in everyday life? My days of hero worship are long behind me.

Look, I'm not a gun owner but I don't disagree with many of Scott's assertions about the 2nd Amendment and he's correct about how human hunting helps balance out ecosystems. And being slavishly devoted to one side of the aisle or another? That's just America these days.

But the whole "Birther" thing? Well, that just means you're a big dummy. Or at least you have a really big blindspot when it comes to President Obama.

But I'm also not going to tell Luke Scott to "Shut up and play ball!" either. He has the right to his opinion and I hate it when athletes are villainized for being honest. That's why so many ballplayers come off as so vanilla these days. If nothing else, Scott's candor is refreshing and certainly entertaining.

And I'll still be pulling for him to put one a few on the Eutaw Street this season....

Nolan Reimold To The Rescue?

From the Oriole Insider blog on BaltimoreSun.com:

Triple-A Norfolk outfielder Nolan Reimold went 4-for-5 with a double, homer, two RBIs and a stolen base against Louisville last night. In seven August games with the Tides, Reimold is batting .400 with two homers, seven RBIs, three walks and two steals. Overall, he’s batting .238 with 10 homers, 32 RBIs and six stolen bases in 73 games.

It’s obviously been a long and trying year for Reimold, who was supposed to be the everyday left fielder in Baltimore. Instead, he hit .205 in 29 games and has been in the minor leagues since May 12. Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said there has been some discussions about promoting Reimold, but nothing is imminent at this point.

I don't believe that Reimold was healthy to start this season and that certainly didn't help things. The silver lining to his struggles and subsequent demotion? Reimold could compete for the first base job in 2011.

Reimold has played 38 of his 73 games in Norfolk at first base. And his hot August is no fluke. Even though he only posted a .235/.361/.382 line in July his BABIP was only .238 when his line drive percentage supports a BABIP in the .290's. In other words, Reimold was unlucky in July and has been hitting the ball a lot better since the beginning of July. (He has also walked 21 times since July 1st against just 16 strikeouts.)

Reimold should get a September callup but with Felix Pie, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in the outfield, there is no room for Reimold in the outfield. A 1B/DH split with Luke Scott makes some sense and adds a decent right handed power bat the the Orioles lineup needs.

Luke Scott: An Appreciation

Luke Scott has been under appreciated throughout his career.

Cleveland traded him as a minor league for pitcher Jeriome Robertson, a 26-year-old with a 5.18 ERA over 43 career games up to that point. He proceeded to hit like crazy in the Houston system. The Astros saw him as a platoon player only (even though his career splits were not crazy: .875 OPS against righties, .793 vs lefties) and threw him in as one of 5 players sent to Baltimore in the original Miguel Tejada deal.

Even after Scott had proved himself as a legitimate slugger (if a flawed overall hitter) with Baltimore, was he given the role of cleanup hitter in 2010? No. Coming into the season, Tejada was given that job, despite years of declining power.

What? You doubt he was a legitimate slugger? From 2008 through today, Scott has the 10th best ISO in the American League, right behind Evan Longoria, just ahead of Justin Morneau. He's 12th in slugging, tied with Shin-Soo Choo, just ahead of Paul Konerko.

But he is never mentioned with those players. Again, much of that has to do with the fact that he doesn't hit for a great average and hasn't ever hit more than 25 homers (although that looks to change this year). But he has led the Orioles in slugging over for the past three seasons, yet has batted cleanup only 49 times in his career (including the last 15 games for Baltimore).

In the absence of a Prince Fielder or an Adrian Gonzalez on this team, Scott should have been the obvious choice but was overlooked.

Chris Jaffe wrote an article for The Hardball Times (at the prompting of Dan from Camden Crazies) examining Buck Showalter and his manging style. This in particular jumped out at me:

Also, it's especially important that he get such good OBP from his table setters, because if there's one thing his teams have been good at over the years, it's slugging the ball. Twice a Showalter-managed team led the league is Isolated Power, on two other occasions they finished second, in a fifth year they came in third, and in two more campaigns they came in fourth. Not bad for an 11-year haul.


Thinking it through, there's a clear theme to everything above, a theme that represents Showalter's offensive philosophy. He isn't playing for one run at a time, but prefers going for the big inning. To that end, he'll try to put good OBP at the top of the order so his big boppers can drive runners in...

I don't want to overstate my case. Showalter's no magician who automatically makes everyone a better power hitter (Soriano, most notably, did not improve under him). My point is much simpler. Baseball can be like any other workspace in that employees respond to items their boss pays more attention to. 

Buck is going to find a way to keep his power bats in the lineup. I have a feeling that if Showalter had been hired in the offseason, Scott would have been given every chance to win the first base job instead of being relegated to DH by default. Scott won't be overlooked again...not while Buck is the manager.

Roster Moves and Random Thoughts

OK, is everyone satisfied now? Luke Scott is hustling out of the box. Do you believe it now? And now he's hurt himself. Next time, I'll take the trot for the double.

Sure, I'm kidding. But the fact that Scott pulled a hamstring during a home run trot pretty much sums up the season, doesn't it? After a horrific April, Scott put up a line of .306/.376/.590 with 10 home runs over June and July. He was looking like a nice trading chip for the Orioles, now he'll be out for at least 2 weeks.

It was assumed by many that Felix Pie would be brought back from his rehab assignment a little early to take Scott's roster spot but instead they called up Norfolk 3B Josh Bell. The top hitting prospect in the minors, Bell is only hitting .265/.310/.453 in AAA but has been hitting better of late, hitting .269/.337/.495 in June. Expect Bell to struggle mightily; he strikes out a ton and doesn't walk much.

Bell may not be long for Baltimore though as Felix Pie is close to returning to action. With only three outfielders and a ton of infielders, Bell will probably get his taste and get sent down...barring a trade.

Pie will push Corey Patterson to the bench which is as it should be. But I have to say that Patterson, in his short time as a leadoff man...has kind of done a decent job. As a leadoff hitter, Corey has hit .295/.345/.423 with 12 stolen bases (vs. 2 time caught). That's decent. No, it can't possibly last but I have to tip my hat to him.

By the way, Matt Wieters is getting worse. His OPS by month in 2010 goes like this: .686, .663, .606. We need a new manager to perform triage on Wieters...stat!

Streaky Orioles (or How Streaky is Luke Scott Really?)

How streaky is Luke Scott? That's the question that inspired this post.

Streaky is kind of hard to define. For this exercise, I tracked various Oriole batter's monthly OPS over the last three years. The batter had to have a full three years of action so guys like Adam Jones and Matt Wieters were not included. I then averaged the monthly OPS totals so there was a baseline for each player. Ultimately, standard deviation will be used to determine which players are the most steady and the most streaky.

First, here's the graphical representations.

Ty Wigginton

Miguel Tejada

Brian Roberts

Nick Markakis

Cesar Izturis

Luke Scott

Obviously, Luke Scott's graph jumps off the page but Miguel Tejada and Ty Wigginton have some streaky tendencies too.

How's the standard deviation break down?

            Standard Deviation
Izturis             0.095
Roberts             0.109
Markakis            0.113
Tejada              0.138
Wigginton           0.155
Scott               0.206

The semi-streaky Tejada and Wigginton pale in comparison to King Streaker Scott. He is, indeed, a very streaky hitter.

One other thing of note is how steady Brian Roberts has been over the last three seasons. Jeff Zrebiec mentioned in an article last season that Roberts was a streaky hitter but this exercise show no such evidence.

Garrett Atkins Banished to Bench, Luke Scott Siezes 1B

I completely missed this since I did not watch the game last night and I am just now getting around to checking box scores but Luke Scott started at first base last night in Arlington. Apparently, it's going to stay that way for awhile.

"Luke Scott right now is swinging the bat well for us. Going in to play the Nationals, where there is no DH, I have to try and find a way to get a lineup where the best eight guys are in there for us," Orioles manager Dave Trembley said. "I think that's why you see Luke playing first base tonight in anticipation of him doing that against the Nationals. That does affect Garrett Atkins tonight, and it probably will affect him somewhat when we go play this weekend."

And this is as it should be. Scott wants to play the field, has offered on numerous occasions to man first base and even before the season had a much better bat than Atkins. Unfortunately, it took desperate times for Trembley/MacPhail to try something like this. (And just in case you think I'm second guessing, I assure you I am not.)

The recall of Scott Moore does not bode well for Atkins either. On the off chance Moore gets off to a hot start, we may finally see the end of the Atkins era in Baltimore. The Rays just swallowed much more money to be rid of Pat Burrell.

Lineup Solutions: Luke Scott vs. Hideki Matsui

As the Oriole offense stumbles along, solutions and Monday morning quarterbacking reign in the world of Twitter. One person wondered how much better the offense would be if Baltimore had not signed Garrett Atkins, traded Luke Scott and signed Hideki Matsui instead.

We pretty much agreed on Atkins so the debate became Scott vs. Matsui as primary DH heading into 2010.

Here's some background numbers:

Salary for 2010:

Luke Scott:      $4.05 mil
Hideki Matsui:   $6.00 mil

Slash Lines for last 3 Seasons:

Scott   .257/.342/.486
Matsui  .284/.368/.479

ISO for Last 3 Seasons:

Scott    .230
Matsui   .196

Below are graphs showing Scott's and Matsui's monthly OPS compared to their averages over that span to demonstrate their "streakiness". First, here's Scott:

And here's Matsui's:

Scott's Standard Deviation: .206
Matsui's Standard Deviation: .146

So, Matsui is a slightly more well-rounded hitter, getting more out of his batting averge than Scott. He also is less streaky but his Standard Deviation is only 60 points of OPS deviation different than Scott. Not sure it's that significant but it's a point in his favor.

Scott is just as patient, has more power, is cheaper, younger and can still play the field. (Matsui is an absolute butcher in the outfield; Scott is, at his worst, adequate.

Going into 2010, you could point to Matsui as the slightly better all-around bat but he loses in every other category. Matsui may be the better hitter but Scott is a better ballplayer.

While Scott's streakiness is maddening, he's also a very good bet to turn it around before the end of the season. I would still assume that Scott will give the O's more in terms of WAR that Matsui gives the Angels by season's end. (ZIPS projections for the rest of the season seem to back this up with Scott projected to OPS .788 the rest of the way.)

Felix Pie May Be Out for 3 Months

The only bright side to this is the outfield depth the O's have...

Roch Kubatko is reporting that Felix Pie has a back injury and could miss up to three months:

Pie went on the disabled list April 16 with an injury classified as a strained muscle in his upper back, but further examination today revealed a more serious problem.

There's been no talk of surgery, and Pie is debating whether to stay here or report to Sarasota to rehab after an extended period of rest.

President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail confirmed the injury a few minutes ago and compared it to the one suffered by reliever Jim Miller a few years ago.

"Left alone, I'm told - and they have significant medical information on this - the thing will heal itself as quickly or more quickly than if you did something on a surgical basis," MacPhail said. "But it's going to take some time to go through the process that it has to go through."

Not great news given that Pie looked to be a much improved player at the plate in 2010 and certainly looked better in the field than he did at the beginning of 2009.

I suppose the bright side is that Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott will be playing nearly every day.

Lou Montanez, your time has come. You wanted an opportunity and this is it.

Excercises in Oriole Lineup Optimization

Just so we're clear, this post is NOT in response to last night's heartbreaking loss to Tampa. The creeping fatalism, once so identified with Red Sox fans, that has taken hold in Birdland will not breach the ramparts of Dempsey's Army. I so swear.

No, I started looking at this before the game began, when I looked at the lineup and saw that Dave Trembley had designated Miguel Tejada as our Opening Day cleanup hitter. That's right, the guy who hasn't ISO'd north of .200 since 2005, the man who has only slugged more than .450 once in the last three years (.455 last season).

So, I wanted to see how much that was hurting the team. So I went to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis site to check it out.

First, I entered last night's lineup with 2010 CHONE projections for the lineup:

Brian Roberts
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis
Miguel Tejada
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
Felix Pie
Garrett Atkins
Cesar Izturis

This lineup is projected to produce an average of 5.128 runs per game or 831 runs over the course of the season.

Now, I entered the lineup I would like to see. (We'll forget about the personnel for a minute and just rearrange them...)

If you check in regularly,you know I have endorsed Luke Scott for cleanup hitter to start the season. I have framed this argument using slugging percentage or ISO but I think I need to break it down to more basic levels. Here's what I like in my cleanup hitters...With runners on base, I want him to hit the ball a long, long way, as far away from home plate as possible so that the base runners have the most time possible to round the bases and reach said home plate. The further he hits it, the more likely the base runners are to score. He might even hit it over the fence. And I want him to do it more often than anyone else on the team. Silly me.

Right now, that man is Luke Scott.

Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Adam Jones
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
Miguel Tejada
Felix Pie
Garrett Atkins
Cesar Izturis

How does this version shake out? This lineup would score 5.148 runs per game or 834 runs per season. That's only three extra runs per season. Better but probably not that significant.

What's the optimum lineup?

Roberts
Markakis
Scott
Wieters
Jones
Pie
Atkins
Tejada
Izturis

This lineup would score 5.157 runs per game or 835 over the course of a season, only one more run than my lineup.

However, what if we moved Luke Scott to first base and plugged in Nolan Reimold at first base?

The best lineup would look like this:

Roberts
Markakis
Wieters
Reimold
Jones
Tejada
Pie
Scott
Izturis

That lineup would produce 5.274 runs per game or 854 runs over the course of the season.

So as you can see, lineups are fairly overrated, at least in comparison to upgrading the talent which moves the needle much more.

As long as you keep Izturis in the 9th spot and Roberts in the 1st, you can jumble around the rest of the lineup with only two or three runs difference over the course of the season. Could that mean a win or two? Sure. But I think this difference could be made up for with luck on either side. But replacing Atkins with Reimold instantly adds 19 runs over the course of the season. Now that's a huge difference.

So maybe we Oriole fans should worry less about the order of the lineup and more about the personnel that comprises it.

Harvest the Chesapeake with Luke Scott

Now here's an offer you don't get everyday...

WFN: World Fishing Network, the nation's only 24-hour fishing lifestyle TV channel, enters the Chesapeake region today in a big way. With the help of Baltimore OF/DH and avid angler Luke Scott, WFN is making its presence felt with the launch of a consumer sweepstakes and a web site - http://www.wfnchesapeake.com. - dedicated to finding the Chesapeake ’s most passionate angler.

Scott, who has hit 48 home runs for Baltimore over the past two seasons, will pick one lucky angler to spend the day fishing with him at the 27^th annual Championship on the Chesapeake spring tournament on May 1, 2010. The fishing trip will be covered by a WFN camera crew and will air on the network at a later date. The grand prize also includes $1,000 and WFN merchandise. In addition, all entries received by April 1, 2010 will be eligible to win two tickets to see Scott play in the home opener on April 9, from the WFN luxury suite.

Chesapeake area anglers can go to http://www.wfnchesapeake.com to enter.

As a lad in Oklahoma, I remember my uncle would hunt catfish from his bass boat with a bow and arrow. I imagine that Luke Scott would fish with the same level of activity and zeal. Except instead of a bow and arrow, he might use a high-powered rifle. Or an industrial whale harpoon cannon.

Wait a second, has anyone told Scott about Mondy? Hey Luke, for the love of all that is holy, don't harvest Mondy!

Luke Scott Equals Gilbert Arenas? Logic Fail.

So Washington Post reporter Dan Steinberg tweets this today:

@dcsportsbog: Orioles DH Luke Scott says he's brought guns into MLB clubhouses. Waiting for national outrage to begin.

And then he links to this post in the DC Sports Blog. There he makes these points:

Gilbert Arenas didn't become a pariah solely for bringing handguns into an NBA locker room. I get that. He violated D.C. gun laws, leading to severe legal problems. And he violated the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, which expressly forbids players from bringing guns onto NBA property.

Let's start here. Scott neither violated any laws (at least, none that we know of) and didn't violate any league or team rules. These rules have only been created and enforced in the last few months. Those two distinctions make these situations worlds apart to begin with.

Now, did Scott use the weapons as part of a practical joke during an argument with a teammate? Was he part of a story so messy and entangled that someone wound up chucking a weapon across the room? Does he have a history of inappropriate jokes, including sneaker defecation? No, no and no.

More differences that are ENORMOUS. They don't even deserve a comment. Onward.

But he brought a weapon into that sacred and secure athletic safe haven we heard so much about throughout Gil's Gunz coverage, and so these are some folks I'd be curious to hear from in the coming days.

Then he quotes/links to a bunch of writers who commented on the Arenas situation...but the quotes are removed from the very context that Steinberg just laid out for us.

The differences in these situations is staggering. Arenas (who evidently did not bring guns to the stadium on a regular basis) allegedly brought the guns to the locker room, showed them to a teammate who he was having a gambling dispute with, perhaps as a joke, perhaps as a veiled threat, an act that resulted in weapons being loaded with ammo and brandished.

All we know about Scott is that he carried guns with him, left them in the locker room and after the game, left with them. Nobody was any the wiser because he conducts himself like a responsible gun owner and not some clown. Thus, Luke Scott has never has a "Gilbert Arenas Moment". Not even close.

If you are sitting around waiting for the same moral outrage about Luke Scott that you saw about Gilbert Arenas then you'll be waiting a long time. Because anyone can see that the situations aren't even in the same ballpark...pun intended.

Luke Scott Loves the Firearms

Luke Scott understands the recent ban on firearms in the workplace by MLB but that doesn't mean he has to like it.

"I don't think that everyone else should be pay for the mistakes of a few," said Scott, one of baseball's most vocal gun rights proponents. "There is a good reason behind the rule, I can't deny that. The reason is you cannot trust 25 guys in a locker room to have the same respect and training as I do with a weapon. That I do understand. I've carried a gun for 10 years. I've carried them in the locker room and nobody really knows about it."

Scott's got a point that I agree with in principle. However, I can't think of many workplaces that will allow you to bring weaponry on the premises these days.

On the flip side, professional baseball has been around 130 years and just instituted this ban a few months back. I can't remember one incident involving a ballplayer and firearms. Can you?

Luke's given this a lot of thought:

"We have good security," Scott said. "It's hard to get in here. Barring a tactical entry where terrorists come in and hold us hostage, that's about the only thing that could possibly warrant me carrying a gun in the clubhouse. That's highly unlikely and I admit that."
  
Wow. When the zombie apocalypse goes down, I'm heading to Luke's place with a truckload of canned ravioli and bottled water. This is the man you want to lead you in a crisis. I'll bet he actually has a zombie apocalypse contingency plan.

Whether you agree with Scott's statements or not, you have to give him credit for speaking his mind, especially since he works for a league that doesn't take kindly to criticism. Just ask Peter Pascarelli.

Could Nolan Reimold or Luke Scott Play First?

This comment under my Luke Scott post got me thinking...

Replace Atkins with Pie and that lineup is a thing of beauty. It would go



S L R L R S R L S


No consecutive batters from the same side. Man I wish Trembley would let Reimold or Scott play 1st.

math_geek

First, I hadn't realized how well balanced the handedness was in my sample lineup.

But really it got me thinking about first base. Why couldn't Nolan Reimold or Luke Scott play first on a regular basis? You could still sub in Atkins to add flexibility and give Reimold his reps in left. But replacing Atkins with Pie would give the O's the best offensive lineup.

CHONE Projections for the players involved:

OPS
Atkins      .739
Reimold     .832
Scott       .808
Pie         .767
 

Even Pie is projected to be a significantly better hitter than Garret Atkins. And even if we assume average fielding from Reimold in left, Pie is a big upgrade with the glove.

Reimold and Scott would both be big offensive upgrades over Atkins but how big is the difference in their defense? For his career at first base, his UZR is -6.3. That's only over 708+ innings and is a bit of a small sample size. We'll bump him up to -.3 UZR and give him the benefit of the doubt.

Now, we can measure this in terms of WAR. How badly would Scott or Reimold have to play at first to offset the offense they bring to the table. Plugging some values into the WAR spreadsheet, this is what I came up with. (I am assuming all will be equal baserunners.)

UZR
Scott     -19.0
Reimold   -26.0

The worst defensive first baseman (of regulars) in baseball last year was Billy Butler. His UZR was -7.4. You will occasionally see a guy have a season with -16, -18 UZR (Mike Jacobs had a -19.4 UZR in 2008) but it would be virtually impossible for Scott or (especially) Reimold to play first base so badly that they would offset their much improved bats.

The best choice would be to make Scott the everyday first baseman, rotate Pie and Reimold through LF/CF/DH with Adam Jones and bring Atkins off the bench.

But that's not happening.

The Crystal Ball '10: Luke Scott

Now that Miguel Tejada has returned to the Orioles, there has been a lot of talk that he will be the de facto clean up hitter. But this isn't 2004. Tejada is not a slugger anymore. But Luke Scott is.

While batting orders are overrated in general, the classic wisdom wants your most powerful hitter in the clean up spot. The most powerful hitter on the Oriole roster is Luke Scott. He led the team in slugging in 2009 and if not for Aubrey Huff's career season and Mora's last gasp of baseball life in 2008, he would have led the team in slugging in 2008 too.

But he has posted an ISO (you know how I love ISO) north of .200 for the past two seasons and no other player on the roster has done that. If fact, since 2005 Scott has an ISO of .231, tied with Matt Holliday and ahead of hitters like Adrian Gonzalez, Dan Uggla, Vlad Guerrero and Curtis Granderson. He is an excellent power hitter and just on the cusp of levels that could be called elite (he's 26th since 2005...). Raw power? Scott's got plenty of it.

But for all the power he displays, Scott has hit cleanup only a handful of times since joining the team. For 2008, I can understand it as Huff was on fire and slugging .522. But last year? Only 8 games as the cleanup hitter. Scott is a flawed hitter. But he has the most important attribute for a guy hitting #4 in your lineup. Raw power.

A sample lineup:

1.  Brian Roberts

2.  Nick Markakis

3.  Adam Jones

4.  Luke Scott

5. Nolan Reimold

6. Matt Wieters

7. Miguel Tejada

8. Garret Atkins

9. Cesar Izturis

Who else is a better option? As they stand now, only Scott is a real threat to slug .500 and ISO north of .200. There's no reason not to plug him in and let him drive those runners in. So let's give him a shot and watch him rack up the RBI.

Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

Why Bradley Would Fit In Baltimore

This post is in response to a comment on my last Base Hits post from Crawdaddy. I started to answer it in the comments but it ended up being long. So here's a short post. The original question:

Crawdaddy said...

So why does (Milton) Bradley make sense?

I am not advocating the acquisition of Bradley nor making the case that it's likely but here's why I think Bradley makes sense:

1. Bradley is an AL Player - Bradley must DH to stay healthy and productive. That takes NL teams off the trade market, limiting the Cubs' trade partners and leverage.

2. The Cubs are Desperate - The Cubs have stated publicly (and stupidly) that Bradley will not be back in 2010. This has reduced the already dwindling number of suitors and depressed the price. The team that gets Bradley won't have to give up much and the Cubs may even have to pick up some of the salary to move him. Andy MacPhail loves two things: a desperate trade partner and a bargain.

3. The Orioles and the Cubs Have a Good Relationship - They have been involved in many trades over the years. Why wouldn't they hook up for this deal? Maybe they send Luke Scott in return and allow Bradley to be the full-time DH. And the Cubs would probably pick up some salary in the process.

3. Luke Scott May Be On His Way Out - If Scott isn't part of the Bradley trade, he may be headed elsewhere anyway.

As a guy headed to arbitration for the second time, coming off a $2.4 million salary for 2009, he’s at the point where his salary is too prohibitive for Baltimore to keep him around as a part-time player. He’ll probably make $4 million or so in 2010 – still less than what he’s worth, but too much for a team who isn’t sure where to put him.

If the Orioles prefer not to pay $4 million for Scott, he may be shipped out to a team that thinks they can contend. That leaves the DH spot wide open. If they're only paying $5-6 million of Bradley's salary, Bradley is a good bet to exceed Scott's production anyway.

So even if they sign free agents to fill first base and third base, the lineup could look something like this:

1B Blalock+

2B Roberts

SS Izturis

3B Atkins +

LF Reimold

CF Jones

RF Markakis

C Wieters

DH Bradley

BN Moeller

BN Pie

BN Wigginton

BN Andino

+ These are just players that have been linked to Baltimore...it'll be these guys or players like them...

It fits...if the Orioles move Scott. Not so much if Scott ends up staying.

OK, have at me...

Base Hits: Russ Smith is a Tool, What Have They Done For Us Lately and B-Rob Again.

Russ Smith wrote a poorly supported article on why the Orioles are not looking at the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. I was going to go on a rant but Kevin Lomax did a very good job over at Eutaw Street Hooligans. Besides, he's willing to curse in print.



Also, Shysterball linked to the story and the comments do a fair job of poking holes in Smith's assertions too.



Only two new things to add...



1) Why do some fans/analysts (like Smith) think they can observe ballplayers' mannerisms in the field and draw conclusions about their mood/dedication/love of the game? They're professional ballplayers, not wildlife.



2) As much as I like Brad Bergesen, anybody who sees Brian Matusz's stuff and polish and concludes that he does not have a better chance at being very good than Bergesen just isn't a bright guy.



*****



Roar from 34 continues to be the source for all things Eutaw Street as he notes that Luke Scott, in less than two seasons, is closing in on Rafael Palmiero as the Oriole leader in launching homers that reach the boulevard that runs in front of The Warehouse.



*****

Since August 1st:

* Melvin Mora is hitting .291/.334/.437 with 4 homers.

* Matt Wieters is hitting .243/.292/.333 with two homers, 7 walks and 30 strikeouts. I've got to admit that, hype aside, I expected Wieters to be hitting better by this stage of the season. Not particularly worried, just resetting my expectations for his learning curve.

* Oscar Salazar is hitting .395/.442/.632 with 2 homers. Granted, this is only over 38 at bats but the Padres are starting to see some usefulness in the guy beyond pinch hitter and he has gotten a few starts over the last couple weeks.

* Cla Meredith is posting a 5.94 ERA in 16.1 IP with 10 walks and 11 strikeouts. So far, he is what we thought he was. Didn't we already get this kind of production from Matt Albers? Were we that sure Salazar couldn't platoon at 1st/3rd/DH next season? Really sure?

* Jeremy Guthrie is 3-4 with a 3.83 ERA. I fully expected Guthrie to rebound a bit next season but he's managed to turn it around in August. Make no mistake, Guthrie will be a big part of this team's fortunes over the next two seasons.

* Felix Pie is hitting .321/.391/.605 with 6 home runs. He's not this good but he's pretty damned good and finally starting to show it.

* Luke Scott is hitting .206/.314/.363 with 3 home runs. This season notwithstanding, Scott can't hit lefties and his success against southpaws in '09 is a fluke. I think he makes an intriguing platoon partner with Ty Wigginton (Wiggy has a career .846 OPS against lefties) which is a moot point since Dave Trembley seems very averse to L/R platoons.

*****

Finally, a good piece on Brian Roberts by Jeff Zrebiec in The Baltimore Sun. Zrebiec mentions Roberts' streakiness but I've never considered Roberts a streaky hitter. Which gets me thinking...hmmmmm.....

Base Hits: 6/4/2009

Sure, Baltimore dropped the series in Seattle but you can console yourself with the fact that the O's have played the second hardest schedule in the majors this season. Only the Indians have had it rougher. Maybe the NL East is the remedy?

*****

Sure the Orioles lost 3-2 last night...OR DID THEY???

Obviously, Yahoo Sports considered that first inning shot by Huff a fair ball...

On the bright side, you have to be impressed by how well Brad Bergesen and Matt Wieters work together. Two starts, both at least 7 inning outings with 2 earned runs apiece.

*****

I like Dave Trembley. I really do. But his odd "aggressive" base runnning and hit-and-run tactics are a bit overused and misguided. Sure, Brian Roberts and Adam Jones could be employed in these maneuvers...but Aubrey Huff?

But zknower of Camden Chat says it way better than I could. And even Peter Schmuck gets in on the act. OK, Peter advocates for the sac bunt but IF you're going to play "small ball", he has a very valid point. And IF, you're going to play "small ball" why not use Felix Pie as a pinch runner late in the game?

I'm an Earl Weaver guy...pitching, defense and the three run homer. Didn't Earl say that the 27 outs you get at the beginning of the game are your most precious commodity? (I have to stop repeating myself and just find that quote...)

*****

OPACY has made PETA's Top Ten Vegetarian-Friendly Ballparks for the first time. As a spouse of a woman with specific dietary needs, I appreciate that Camden Yards offers veggie burgers, veggie dogs, salads and fruit cups. It's good for the consumer and prevents me from having to eat elsewhere before the game. But the clever PETA rhetoric goes just a little too far...

Birds fans would be disgusted to know that the meat industry drugs chickens and turkeys, making them grow so fat that their legs often become crippled under their own weight. Luckily, Orioles diehards can help prevent such cruelty by choosing mouthwatering vegetarian options...

That's the new logo! Cartoon Oriole bird, engorged from feasting on it's Major league opponents, no longer able to support his mass on his own spindly legs!

Or....maybe not.

*****

Luke Scott leads the AL in ISO (Raw Power like The Stooges, baby) at .339, tied with Jason Bay. He leads the league in slugging at .669. Streaky hitter? Yes. Could he hit 30 this season? I think so. He being much more disciplined at the plate. His strikeout rate has dropped and his walk rate has ticked up a bit.

MacPhail may have fleeced Seattle but getting Scott as a throw-in in the Tejada deal is becoming a pretty good fleecing too.

Base Hits: 6/2/2009

I was going to save this for the next Oriole Blogosphere post but these interviews with Jake Arrietta and Troy Patton make for good viewing and are a pretty cool "get" for a bunch of bloggers. Well done!

*****

Brady Anderson writes an op-ed piece defending Orioles owner Peter Angelos. Among his defenses:

The article states that....Mr. Angelos began his "notorious meddling" by firing manager Davey Johnson. That is not what happened. Mr. Johnson resigned; he was not fired. The dispute between Mr. Angelos and Mr. Johnson began when Mr. Johnson fined Roberto Alomar, unilaterally, and without the owner's knowledge or consent, for missing a mandatory team function.

I was really bothered by the Johnson resignation. I loved playing for Davey and believe the Orioles would have continued to compete for championships had he stayed. I also think that if Davey had really wanted to stay he was more than capable of convincing Mr. Angelos to retain him for many years.

OK, but you could conversely make the argument that Mr. Angelos was capable of convincing Johnson to stay as well.

That point aside, Anderson does make a few good points and seems to genuinely admire and respect Peter Angelos.

I certainly have my issues with Angelos as a manager but hardly think he's the win-draining diabolical monster some paint him to be. Nor do I find him a shrewd manager of his resources and a magnanimous owner who is solely responsible for the Orioles' success in the mid-90's. I imagine, as with most things, the truth lies in the middle.

*****

Spring Training update: Arizona? Arizona? What the hell? I'm fine with Baltimore training anywhere in Florida...but not Arizona.

Meanwhile the Orioles are still in negotiations with Sarasota and Lee counties about moving their Spring Training to Florida's west coast. Some commissioners are worried about how much money the Orioles will want in stadium improvements:

(Lee County Commissioner Frank Mann) is concerned that the Orioles may ask for at least $10 million in upgrades.

"If less, I'll kiss a monkey right out there on the steps," Mann said, gesturing toward the north side of the old county courthouse.

Now that would be an entertaining County Board meeting. Do these guys know how to party or what? If I were John Angelos, I would make primate smooching a prerequisite to move to Lee County.

*****

In the biggest no-brainer in baseball, Luke Scott was named AL Player of the Week.

*****

Adam Jones is back in Seattle. The Mariner fans react:

U.S.S. Mariner:

So, as you probably know, the Orioles have this center fielder who is having a pretty good season. Unless he falls apart in June, there’s a pretty decent chance that Adam Jones will make his first All-Star team this summer at the ripe old age of 23. He’s one of the core pieces of the Orioles rebuilding process, and if the M’s wanted to get him back, they probably couldn’t, even if they offered up the entire farm system and the deed to Mt. Rainier. He’s that valuable. And, but for some really terrible decision making, he could have been ours.

Seattle Times Mariners Blog:

Adam Jones came back to Seattle today with an entourage -- two burly guys standing by his locker in the visiting clubhouse at Safeco Field wearing Orioles' jerseys with "Jones" on the back.

OK, it was his brother and cousin, come up from San Diego to visit Adam -- who actually seems quite unaffected by the giant step into stardom he has taken this season.

"I'm just maturing as a baseball player,'' he said with a shrug. "Figuring out my role and not trying to do too much. Playing the game the way I know how to play it."

Which, as every wistful Mariners' fan is well aware, is good enough to make him one of the game's most exciting young players, almost certainly headed, at age 23, to his first All-Star Game.

Jones is the most hilarious deadpan quote dropper ever. When asked about coming "home" to Seattle:

Asked if he feels any special tugs coming back to Seattle, Jones replied, "Nothing. It's just a regular city. We're on the road. Just got to come here and do what our team tries to accomplish on the road."

In fact, he seemed to have more attachment to Tacoma. "I got to know a lot of the fans there, because I was in Tacoma for most of the time,'' he said. "They're great people. They treated me with utmost respect. I'd say last year was good for me, because they (the Orioles) gave me an opportunity, but I'm also glad I had the opportunity to play over there."

Hysterical. The Orioles gave me a shot in Baltimore but Seattle gave me a shot in AAA Tacoma. I really got to know the people in Tacoma. Not so much in Seattle. Awesome.

*****

Oriole Post got his recap of MASN's Oriole Blogger night up. Ditto for Matt at Roar From 34. Also Baltimore Sports and Life and Baltimore Sports Report.

*****

The highlight of Wieters Weekend for me was watching him get challenged by Justin Verlander and getting blown away that first at bat and then coming back the next time and drilling Verlander fastball off the center field wall for a triple and his first major league hit. Nice adjustment and it bodes well...