AFL Update: 10/26

I told you that this was an interesting crop of AFL prospects for the Orioles...

Oriole Prospects

The future corner infielders for Baltimore continue to rake. 3B Josh Bell is posting a .464/.531/.786 slash line and 1B Brandon Snyder is sporting a line of .400/.436/.714. As we know, both corner infield positions in Baltimore are essentially vacant. These guys may force their way into Baltimore before the All-Star break.

CF Matt Angle continues to do what he has always done (get on base, steal bases) albeit in a more spectacular fashion. Angle has strung together 5 consecutive multi-hit games and has a line of .406/.486/.500 in AFL play. In 7 games, he has stolen 6 bases without being caught.

3B/DH Brandon Waring has only gotten 16 ABs but is hitting .250/.368/.563.

In a league that has been all about offense, the O's pitching prospects have held their own.

Ryohei Tanaka leads the team in innings pitched (with 8.1) and has struck out 8, walked 2 and posted a 3.24 ERA. Brandon Erbe (1.93 ERA), Josh Perrault (2.08 ERA) and Eddie Gamboa (3.86 ERA) have also pitched well in limited action.

Other Prospects

Stephen Strasburg got tagged in his last start against Peoria (and then Tanaka came in and shut the Javelinas down) and now has an ERA north of 10.00.

After a hot start, Adam Loewen is now hitting .179.

Desert Dog Fever...Catch It!

I have always loved following the Oriole prospects in the Arizona Fall League. In past seasons, I have had to endure the watching Oriole "prospects" like Dustin Yount or Brandon Fahey. But this season, all of the Oriole prospects who have showed up to play in Phoenix are worthy of following. And their teammates on the Desert Dogs from other organizations bring some interesting storylines of their own. Here's the rundown with the Oriole prospects listed first:

3B Josh Bell - Bell came over from the Dodgers in the George Sherrill trade and gave the Orioles their best third base prospect since...I don't know, Leo Gomez? He is also the only player listed as a third baseman for the Desert Dogs so he should get plenty of at bats this fall.

RP Eddie Figueroa - The 2008 21st round pick has gone from the rookie leagues all the way to Bowie in under a season and a half of pro ball. Can he keep mowing them down and killing worms (or scorpions) in Arizona?

SP Brandon Erbe - Coming back from injury, Erbe showed signs of life in Bowie over 14 starts. This will be the toughest competition the 22-year-old Erbe has faced in his career...should be a good test.

RP Josh Perrault - The AFL'er most likely to break camp with Baltimore out of spring training. Perrault pitched 32 innings in Norfolk and struck out 33. A good showing in Arizona will go a long way toward getting him a long look in Sarasota this spring.

SP Ryohei Tanaka - The Orioles' forgotten Japanese import. Tanaka put together a nice season in Bowie as a swingman in '09 winning 4 games, saving 3 and posting a 3.00 ERA. Will his junk fool the rest of the AFL? I'm curious to see what kind of stuff he has. Tanaka makes the season opening start for Phoenix today versus Mesa at 2:35 EDT.

1B Brandon Snyder - Last fall, Snyder's good showing led to a white-hot run in Bowie and gained him a mid-season promotion to Norfolk. Will this fall help ignite similar success in AAA?

1B/3B Brandon Waring - The Carolina League MVP. He beat up on the pitchers in A-ball but can he mash against the top pitchers in the minors?

OF Matt Angle - Frederick centerfielder hasn't shown much at the plate except that he can a) get on base and b) steal a lot of bases. If he can do that in the AFL, those skills could play in Bowie and beyond.

OF Adam Loewen - Former Oriole top pitching prospect arrives as an outfielder for the Jays. Loewen hit pitifully in Dunedin so I'm surprised he's here at all. He will either affirm his status as a hitting prospect or get completely exposed.

RP Drew Storen - The top pick of the Nationals in 2009 and heir apparent to the closer job in 2010. Drew dominated minor league hitters in '09 and along with Stephen Strasburg will give Nats fans something to cheer for in 2010.

SP Stephen Strasburg - No player will be more closely scrutinized this fall than Strasburg. The pitcher described by his agent as a "once a generation" talent will have to prove it against the best hitters in the minors this fall. Nats fans will be watching with baited breath while sport writers across the country will be hoping he fails.

2B Jemile Weeks - Ricky Weeks' little brother raked in the high-A California league while stealing bases at will. The Athletics hope he continues that success against tougher competition since they haven't produced an impact position player from their farm system in years.

P Katayama/Mishimura/Yanuki - A trio of pitchers from the Nippon Professional Baseball league will be playing for the desert Dogs in 2009. This is the first time I have seen players unaffiliated with MLB play for teams in the AFL (I have seen them in the Hawaiian Leagues.) There are five total and three will play for Phoenix. They are:

P Hiroshi Katayama - Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

P Ken Mishimura - Hanshin Tigers

P Toshiyuki Yanuki - Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

I always love to see the NPB players get a shot against North American competition especially since the Orioles seem to have turned their eye toward Japan when it comes to scouting. It's a good way to get a sense of how competitive those guys can be.

I don't know about you but I'm excited! I'll be a die-hard Desert Dog fan for the next two months.

Base Hits: The AFL Rosters, Nagging Injuries and Happy Birthday to Cal.

The rosters for the Arizona Fall League have been, by and large, released. The Orioles who will be taking the field for the Phoenix Desert Dogs:

1B Brandon Snyder
3B Josh Bell
3B Brandon Waring
OF Matt Angle
RP Eddie Gamboa
SP Brandon Erbe
SP/RP Ryohei Tanaka

I'm very interested to see how Josh Bell and Brandon Waring fare against top notch pitching. Snyder proved himself in the AFL last season and that success carried him to the cusp of the majors this season.

The pitchers are intriguing too. Has Brandon Erbe recovered? Will fast-rising reliever Gamboa show the stuff to get top level hitters out? Does Tanaka have more promise than originally thought?

Interesting teammates for the Oriole players too. Top Nationals prospect Steven Strasburg will be on the squad as well as former Oriole pitcher turned Blue Jays hitting "prospect" Adam Loewen. (Loewen is posting a .245/.348/.371 line a high-A Dunedin...)

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From this roundup article from the Boston Globe:

8. Dave Trembley, manager, Orioles - A scout who watched the Orioles-Rays series last week noticed a bit of apathy from the Baltimore bench. “They have good talent, a couple of good young pitchers, but there’s no fire over there whatsoever,’’ said the scout. “You’ve got to show your players you’ve got the fire no matter where you are in the standings, and you don’t see that with the Orioles. That really stands out.’’ Trembley has managed the tough times in Baltimore, but will he be around to manage the upswing?


If what the scout says is true, it could be a bad omen for Trembley. As I said last week, if Trembley gets let go, it'll be because he has lost his players and not because he lost a lot of games.


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The Examiner takes a look at where some Orioles that started the 2009 season with the team have ended up.

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Monday was the 49th birthday of Hall of fame shortstop Cal Ripken, Jr. In a reminder of the arrogance of the New York sporting community, here's the article from the New York Times that suggested that Ripken take a day off before breaking Gehrg's record in 1995.

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Orioles-Inflicted Grimace of the Day. In honor of Baltimore's first series win since the All-Star break, I present Mark Buerhle:

This grimace comes courtesy of a Nolan Reimold 2-run shot on Sunday.

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I don't like back injuries for young stars like Adam Jones and although the condition is not considered serious, it gives one pause to poner the Oriole lineup without him.

In the same article, Nolan Reimold may have offseason surgery to repair a fraying Achilles tendon. If that turns out to be the path he chooses, let him do it now! It's a good 4-5 months of recovery time and that's if everything goes well. The O's will need Reimold healthy for 2010...2009 is a lost cause.

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Love the interviews with minor leaguers over at Right Off Russell and the two latest are Frederick pitcher Zach Britton and Frederick 1B/OF Robbie Widlansky.

Good Ravens coverage over there too, if you're inclined to that sort of thing.

Base Hits: 7/16/2009

It's the traditional midseason point so let's look back at my pre-season predictions!

"I hate the Hayden Penn trade. We could have just kept Jolbert Cabrera if we needed a fourth bench player. I'd rather fail with a 24-year old pitcher than with a bunch of retreads or never-were's like Eaton, Simon and Hendrickson. So my first prediction is that Penn turns out to be way more useful to the Marlins than Robert Andino will be to Baltimore."

Hayden Penn posted in 7.77 ERA in 16 games for the Marlins and was sent to New Orleans about 6 weeks ago and has only posted a 4.50 ERA since he got back to AAA.

Andino has not been great but his slick fielding came in handy when Cesar Izturis went down with an injury. So far, dead wrong about this one.

"Alfredo Simon is out of the rotation by the end of May. He won't be with the big club by July."

Well, Simon was out of the rotation by the end of April but because of injury instead of ineffectiveness. He did suck though. So I'll call this one correct.

"Matt Wieters is here in May."

Nailed it.

"Brad Bergeson is here in July."

Beregesen came up in April due to the Simon injury but he would have forced his way into the rotation by May anyway. He's ahead of where I thought he would be. I'll call this one a push.

"Brian Matusz is here is September."

Matusz dominated A+ Frederick and is dominating AA Bowie. A September call-up looks to be in his future. So far, so good.

"The Orioles win 72 games."

The O's are on pace for 66 wins. They would have to go 32-42 to reach 72 wins this season. Not impossible but for now, I've overestimated the team.

(edit: A commenter named Brett has pointed out that I made a miscalculation; 40-48 is good for a 73 win pace. So I was close...)

"Lou Montanez won't OPS better than .750 at any level...unless he goes back to Bowie."

Montanez posted a 1.000 OPS in AAA Norfolk...but in only 10 games. In 18 games in Baltimore he put up a .6s0 OPS. Montanez is hurt but I'm correct on this one.

"Nick Markakis OPS's .900+"

Whew. I had this one wrong. Barring a white hot second half, Markakis will be lucky to reach an .800 OPS, let alone .900. So much for the Markakis breakout season.

"Felix Pie gets better in the second half."

He couldn't be much worse. But will he even get an opportunity in Baltimore?

Adam Jones hits 20+ home runs.

A couple months ago, this looked like a slam dunk but a recent homerless draught put the goal in question. Jones has 12 homers and should be able to reach 20 with little problem.

Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton provide the best Oriole platoon since...well, in a very long time.

Wigginton and Scott haven't had a straight platoon at all (no surprise) but Wigginton hasn't hit lefties well (his forte before this season) and and Scott has crushed lefties that he hasn't hit well in previous seasons. It's like Scott stole Wigginton's soul. Dead wrong.

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Baseball America's Hot Sheet, which ranks recent performances of minor league prospects, ranks Brian Matusz #1 and Chris Tillman #3. That's pretty cool.

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I don't think Dave Trembley's job is in jeopardy and it seems like Jeff Zrebiec is trying to create a story where there is none. I'm not sure what makes this column any better than idle speculation on any blog or message board. You expect a little bit more from a real "journalist"; Zrebiec didn't even bother to go as far an Ken Rosenthal and get an anonymous source.

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Fort Myers is looking less and less like the next home of Oriole Spring Training. Staying put in Ft. Lauderdale?

(edit: It looks like the Sarasota deal is back from the dead...)

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Steve Melewski has the rundown on Bowie reliever Ryohei Tanaka.

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He's been kind of overshadowed with all the other talented pitchers in the Oriole farm system but RHP Tim Bascom has rebounded from a bad 2008 season in Frederick to pitch extremely well for the Keys and now the Bowie Baysox. Bascom has struck out 57 against only 23 walks in 90.3 innings pitched between those teams. He's not dominating but it's not difficult to see him in Norfolk's rotation in 2010 and perhaps in Baltimore (either starting or relieving) in 2011.

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Adam Loewen is posting a .243/.348./.696 line at high A Dunedin. However, in the last month he is posting a .304/.424/.464 line and .364/.440/.591 over the last 7 days. In other words, he's trending up as a hitter.

Jerk.

Base Hits: 7/10/2009

BJ Ryan revisited.

First, Steve DeClue at the Examiner suggests that the Orioles should bring Ryan back into the fold.

Ryan has struggled to stay healthy and effective with the Blue Jays ever since undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he would be a logical claim for the Orioles.

I'm assuming that he used the word "claim" in error because if the Orioles "claimed" Ryan off of waivers, they would be responsible for the $15 million due to him over the next two seasons. And that would be retarded.

Look, the contract Toronto gave Ryan was crazy, it was a bad move and everyone knew it when it happened. Outside of signing Ryan to a minor league deal to see if he can round himself back into shape, I can't imagine Ryan helping this club in the least.

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A few interesting mid-season PrOPS numbers:

              OPS   PrOPS
Scott        .975   .975
Reimold      .801   .843
Jones        .856   .813
Huff         .758   .796
Wigginton    .693   .754
Markakis     .791   .752
Pie          .654   .704
Izturis      .620   .694

Luke Scott matches his PrOPS and OPS exactly, something that rarely happens. Reimold, Huff and Wigginton have swung the bat better than the numbers show so far. Pie too, although in far fewer at bats.

Markakis is underperforming on the field and PrOPS show that he was lucky to reach even those diminished numbers. I picked Nick for a breakout season in 2009 but he's going to have to have a hell of a second half to reach the heights I predicted.

Cesar Izturis: if he can even approach a .700 OPS as PrOPS suggests, he'll be a fine boost to the offense in the second half.

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Who is Eddie Gamboa? Find out in this article.

This season Gamboa went 6-0 with a 1.80 ERA as a reliever in Delmarva and in 8 innings pitched in Frederick, he has a 0.00 ERA and 6 strikeouts to one walk. It's guys like this that make your farm system viable and prevents you from having to go out and, I don't know, spend $42 million on relief pitchers some offseason.

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Lee County, Florida and the Orioles continue to negotiate to bring Baltimore to Fort Myers for Spring Training.

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I found this gem in a Peter Gammons column about international baseball signings:

The Orioles, for instance, selected pitcher Matt Hobgood with the fifth overall pick because he'd sign for slot. The Reds at seven and Braves at eight passed on North Carolina pitcher Alex White because he wouldn't sign for the commissioner's office figure. But the Orioles may go for Dominican shortstop Miguel Sano for more than $3.5 million; Hobgood got $2.4 million. Go figure.

As much as it pains me to say this, that is just lazy reporting. Lazy.

Matt Hobgood was not strictly a signability pick. High school pitcher Zack Wheeler was still on the board (he went to the Giants with the very next pick) and he was highly touted and said to be an easy sign. There were certainly other options if the O's just wanted to go cheap. And, by the way, no analyst ripped Baltimore for the Hobgood pick. Most analysts saw it as a reasonable pick at that spot.

In 2008, Baltimore signed LHP Brian Matusz and gave him a $3.2 million singing bonus and a major league contract. In 2007, the O's signed Matt Wieters for a $6 million signing bonus. They do not have a pattern for going cheap or selecting inferior talent to save cash under the current leadership.

Anyway, the whole point of this article is to bemoan the exorbitant spending in South America on prospects (I guess it's not a good

Alderson and a committee of general managers should propose a system that would cap total spending for amateur and international signings. They need to allow bad teams to get the best players. They ought to allow teams to decide whether they want to spend in the draft or internationally.

Or...you could just add all the international players in the amateur draft. Seems pretty simple to me.

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Another interesting prospect, Ryohei Tanaka, began AA in relief but has now started two games and finally gave up his first run of the season. He's a bit wild as a starter but in 22 innings, only the lone run surrendered, 18 strikeouts and 7 walks.