Base Hits: Surprise Exit for Melvin (?), Payroll, Projections and Irrational Exuberance

Melvin Mora has signed with the Colorado Rockies.

What's with all the "I guess Melvin Mora is really gone" stories? Wasn't it obvious when they declined his option and gave no hint whatsoever that there was still a place for him in Baltimore? Can you imagine his grousing at having to share time with Garrett Atkins or Miguel Tejada? I don't understand why people think this marks the moment that Mora is "officially" no longer an Oriole. That day has long passed.

While we're talking about Melmo, Buster Olney uses Mora's splits to demonstrate the wrong way to use stats for analysis.

Mora had a .260 batting average in 2009, but he really enjoyed the friendly confines of Camden Yards, where he hit .314 compared to .209 on the road. The .105 difference in his home versus road batting average was tied for the second-largest among players with at least 200 at-bats each at home and on the road.

Forget for a minute that batting average is a horrible stat to use for splits over one season and forget that for his Oriole career that Mora has fairly even splits in all his offensive categories, this stat may have been relevant if he was going to a neutral or pitcher's park. He's not. He's going to a field that is even more hitter friendly than OPACY. And he's going to a weaker league. If anything, Mora will enjoy a nice rebound based on this split, not a regression because he is leaving Camden Yards.

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Irrational exuberance alert! Another glowing story on the rebuilding O's from the national media, this time from Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated. I wanted to highlight one point about Baltimore's free agent signings during the MacPhail era:

The idea here is to bring aboard players who will contribute immediately at the major league level, but who won't financially hamstring the club in the long term (should their production decline), and who won't block cheaper, and potentially better, alternatives who are nearly ready in the minors.


It's a point that needs more highlighting. This is precisely what The Warehouse is using free agency for in the short term and avoiding questionable multi-year deals. And it will probably work in both the short and the long term.

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duck at Camden Chat does his best to unravel the MLB revenue sharing model and finds the Orioles stuck in the middle.

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With the addition of Mark Hendrickson and Miguel Tejada, here is my estimated Opening Day payroll for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles. I am assuming that Ty Wigginton is traded away and that Jeremy Guthrie wins arbitration.

Roberts, Brian	$10,000,000
Millwood, Kevin	$9,000,000
Markakis, Nick	$7,100,000
Tejada, Miguel	$6,000,000
Gonzalez, Mike	$6,000,000
Uehara, Koji	$5,000,000
Atkins, Garrett	$4,500,000
Scott, Luke	$4,050,000
Guthrie, Jeremy	$3,625,000
Izturis, Cesar	$2,600,000
Meredith, Cla	$1,250,000
Herdrickson, Mark	$1,200,000
Mora, Melvin,	$1,000,000
Moeller, Chad,	$900,000
Matusz, Brian	$868,000
Albers, Matt	$680,000
Jones, Adam	$500,000
Wieters, Matt	$500,000
Pie, Felix	$450,000
Mickolio, Kam	$450,000
Bergesen, Brad	$450,000
Tillman, Chris	$450,000
Aubrey, Michael	$450,000
Reimold, Nolan	$450,000
Andino, Robert	$450,000
Johnson, Jim	$450,000
TOTAL	$68,373,000

Still coming in under $70 mil. It's not a bad team for the price which will be small comfort if they lose 95+ games again.

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Baseball Prospectus has had to re-run their PECOTA projections due to a calculation error. The Orioles are now projected for...80 wins. My WAR spreadsheet has them pegged for 80.5 wins.

Ha! Not overly optimistic after all! Who's crazy now?

Big Homer Index: Mora, Blair and Hammonds

It's the offseason so it's the return of the Big Homer Index! What is the Big Homer Index (BHI)? Look here.

Melvin Mora - 158 Oriole Career Home Runs

Now that we can look back lovingly on Melvin Mora's career, I figured it was time to put him through the BHI prism to see how he stacks up. The answer is...pretty well.

Mora hit nearly 25% of his homers with the O's down by 4 or more runs but 41% were Go Ahead homers and he had a couple walk-offs as well. While the "garbage homer" score is high, he had enough heroics to finish with a respectable middle-of-the-pack BHI.

BHI - 238


Paul Blair - 126 Oriole Career Home Runs

Known more for his glove during his Oriole career, Blair delivered his fair share of pop with the bat. Even though lead-off types tend to get penalized by my formula, Blair acquits himself well in terms of BHI. Even with zero walk-off homers, Blair boosted his score with 51 Go Ahead shots and a very low percentage of homers during "garbage time". He finishes on the good side of 250 which puts him well above average.

BHI - 255


Jefferey Hammonds - 51 Oriole Career Home Runs

Hammonds was a disappointment to Oriole fans on so many levels and as it turns out, he wasn't even clutch. A whopping 37% of his Oriole homers came during "garbage time". A lone walk-off blast against Oakland in 1994 is the only thig that keeps his BHI from being sub-zero. His profile is classic stat-padder.

BHI - 109


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career

Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Mickey Tettleton - 444
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Boog Powell - 341
Mike Devereaux - 333
Jim Gentile - 274
Larry Sheets - 266
Paul Blair - 255
Albert Belle - 240
Chris Hoiles - 240
Melvin Mora - 238
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug Decinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Miguel Tejada - 218
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Kevin Millar - 117
Jeffrey Hammonds - 109
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B. J. Surhoff - -64

Base Hits: 8/6/2009

Jeremy Guthrie pitched well in Detroit last night but gave up his 27th homer of the season last night. It's the first week of August but Guthrie is only 8 homers short of the club record. Once he reached the top ten, I guess we'll have to put up a Guthrie Homer-meter on the site.

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Quick thought on Brian Matusz: Gnarly.

Matusz looked as polished as Brad Bergesen with better stuff. He had control of all four of his pitches and looks to be here to stay. Yeah, yeah, it's only one start and I'm the king of warning of "small sample sizes" but I'm calling it now. He's here to stay.

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Speaking of Matusz and Oriole rookie starters, FanGraphs has two articles on new Oriole hurlers. Dave Cameron looks at Chris Tillman's fastball location and his propensity for giving up fly balls and Erik Manning uses PitchFx to analyze Matusz's major league debut.

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Melvin Mora's line since his meltdown: .111/.111/.222.

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Almost as encouraging as Brian Matusz's performance on Tuesday night was the performance of Chris Ray in relief. 2.2 IP, 2 Ks, 1 BB, 1 hit, 0 runs.

Ray could be an enormous part of the bullpen in 2010 if he is actually able to come back...

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Some of Matusz's former Keys teammates will be in Baltimore next Monday to heckle the rookie pitcher.

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Erik Bedard is going for an MRI on his shoulder and the fans of Seattle are not too thrilled about it.

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The Bowling Green View interviews one of their alumni, Oriole outfielder Nolan Reimold.

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Former big league outfielder Doug Glanville is a smart guy and make some good observations on some recent steroid revelations in The New York Times.

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Shysterball offers up some good guidelines for ethical blogging.

Melvin Mora's Defense

"Don't give me the excuse that I cannot beat John Smoltz, that I cannot beat Josh Beckett or I cannot beat [Jon] Lester or I cannot beat Pedro Martinez or I cannot beat nobody here..."

Mora vs. Lester: .174/.208/.174
Mora vs. Smoltz: .250/.250/.500
Mora vs. Beckett: .227/.227/.500
Mora vs. Martinez: .192/.300/.231

Hey Melvin, next time you go on a rant, I wouldn't mention these guys.

Base Hits: 8/3/2009

OK, let's cover the big story first. Melvin Mora is angry that he's been benched during 3 of the last 4 games, spouted off about it and may be on his way out of town.

Some Mora quotes:

"I don't appreciate the disrespect, because I've been playing hurt for a guy who won't respect you. I don't deserve it...Whatever he wants to do, he can do it. But like I told you before, I need to have my respect. This is not a guy who just came to the Orioles. This is a guy who's been here for nine years busting his butt for the organization....

"Don't give me the excuse that I cannot beat John Smoltz, that I cannot beat Josh Beckett or I cannot beat [Jon] Lester or I cannot beat Pedro Martinez or I cannot beat nobody here because I've been here for nine years...All those guys in the [American League] East, they know me. They know me and you don't make the All-Star team for nothing. You deserve respect. That's the only thing I can say."

First, I'll continue to beat a dead horse and point back to the Oscar Salazar trade (hi frostking...). On July 19th, the day Salazar was traded away, Mora had a slash line of .272/.322/.333. Salazar was moved due to a need to make room on the 25-man roster. Now, MacPhail got value back for Salazar which was admirable but he got value back at a position that the Orioles have some depth at in the minors. Instead, he could have cut loose Mora, given Wigginton the starting job at 3B and kept Salazar, giving Oscar more ABs between, thirdbase, firstbase and DH. (Mora has been even worse over the past 3-4 weeks...)

Now, they likely find themselves in a position where Mora will be released anyway and there is no chance to find out if salazar could have been a good stopgap at firstbase/DH in 2010.

Second, aside from the Marlins' Emilio Bonafacio, Melvin Mora is the worst third baseman in baseball. The worst. And he feels entitled to play regardless of performance. The Orioles, in some manner, showed respect for his tenure by keeping him on the team and let him play out his contract. They were not bringing him back next year. They threw him a bone by keeping him on the roster.

The Orioles seems to understand the concept of a sunk cost (see Jay Gibbons) and you would like to see them take some non-traditional directions as they move forward in the rebuilding process. Now Mora is forcing their hand. It's timeo for Melmo to go.

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I have little comment on the Boston series except to reiterate that Andy MacPhail did a lousy job at assembling a repsectable starting rotation to start the season. Jason Berken is getting his brains beat out because he was not ready for the majors and is only here because the Orioles had no other options.

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Speaking of guys arriving ahead of schedule, Brian Matusz is set to make his major league debut with a Tuesday start in Detroit.

While this is yet another move that smacks of desperation, I feel OK about this. This is not like rushing up a 20-year-old Hayden Penn or Jason Berken who had very little on his minor league resume to recommend promotion. Matusz is a polished college pitcher and has dominated every level of the minors. He's worthy of a shot, at least for two or three starts. I don't get the impression that he will be in over his head.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are reportedly pursuing former Oriole hurler Daniel Cabrera.

Cabrera's career 5.09 ERA looks good right about now.

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This is interesting. Liz pitches well for the Tides but Chris Waters has been recalled to Baltimore according to the note at the end of the article. Waters for Berken perhaps?

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Work and personal life will be insane this week...see you next Monday?

Could The Orioles Switch Leagues? Please?

Isolated in the mountains of north Georgia all weekend, there is little better than coming back to civilization to find a Oriole sweep of the world champion Phillies waiting for me.

You know, I didn't see any of the games but can we get Oscar Salazar some more at bats? Every time he gets a shot to play, he gets a hit. OK, while Aubrey Huff is still here you can't cut into his playing time but Salazar can play third and Melvin Mora's bat stinks.

Mora's OPS by month:

          OPS
April    .940
May      .647
June     .583
 

I'm not a Mora basher but he's 37, he's in decline and the club is not going to exercise his option for 2010. Time to give Salazar some of his at bats (and Ty Wigginton too, since we're discussing it...).

Big weekend for Brian Roberts:

                     AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   RBI
Roberts at Philly   .385  .400  .693 1.092    5
 

Where's those people who want to trade him now? Look at our shortstops. Nice gloves but no offense. It's a real luxury to have a good bat at one of the middle infield positions.

Nolan Reimold: another home run, OPSing 1.016 last week and .973 for the month of June.

Jeremy Guthrie gives up another home run but managed to outduel Cole Hamels on Sunday. That's 17 homers surrendered by Guthrie in 15 games and he is on pace to shatter the Oriole record.

Most home runs surrendered by a Baltimore pitcher in a season:

                 HR   GS
Sidney Ponson    35   32
Scott McGregor   35   33
Robin Roberts    35   35
Scott McGregor   34   34
Mike Cuellar     34   40
Kris Benson      33   30
Bruce Chen       33   32
Ken Dixon        33   33
 
 

I was surprised to see Scott McGregor on this list twice. Not really surprised by anyone else (Cuellar had to make 40 starts to make this list.) If Guthrie stays healthy, he should make 33 starts which puts him on pace for 38 homers surrendered.

(I probably don't plug this enough but I compiled this list using the fantastic BaseballReference.com Play Index. Subscribe or sponsor a page today! I use the site nearly everyday and use the Play Index for blog posts all the time...)

But Peter Angleos should lobby Bud Seling to switch leagues; The Orioles would go to the NL East and the Nats would come AL East. Baltimore would actually contend!

Anyway, more NL East play to come, down to Miami for three against the Marlins and back home this weekend for three with the Nats. Enjoy the wins while they last!

Base Hits: 6/12/2009

I am taking down my little "Value Over Daniel Cabrera" widget from the left hand side of the blog. The final results in terms of ERA:

Daniel Cabrera 2008 - 5.25
Daniel Cabrera 2009 - 5.85
Adam Eaton - 8.56
Mark Hendrickson - 5.53
Alfredo Simon - 9.95
Rich Hill - 5.24
Koji Uehara - 4.37

The whole point of the exercise was to decipher what The Warehouse was thinking in regards to the rotation this year. It seemed they were looking for stiffs to eat innings and buy time for the kids in the minors. But then they let go a "proven stiff" in Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera had proven that he was just that kind of pitcher and had proven it in the AL East. It was kind of ironic that they let Cabrera go just at the time he had proven he was forever to be mediocrity but an innings eater. Cabrera was, for the first time in his career, a perfect fit for the Baltimore Orioles and they cut him loose!

Now, you can certainly disagree with me about Cabrera in specific but you have to admit that nobody they brought in has done a better job that D-Cab, save for Koji Uehara. Certainly the trio of stiffs that were in the rotation on Opening Day (Hendrickson, Eaton, Simon) were a downgrade.

I don't have many criticisms of Andy MacPhail so far but his assemblage (or lack thereof) of a starting rotation for the 2009 Orioles has been a glaring and abject failure.

Anyway, it's hardly fair to compare the rotation anymore now that some kids are starting to fill those roles. I've made my argument.

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Want the human interest stories behind the 2009 Oriole draftees? Matt at Roar From 34 has compiled them all.

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I'm not sure that I've said it before (and he certainly doesn't need the traffic from me!) but the Matt Wieters Facts site (put together by Frost King) is still quite entertaining to me.

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I love me some Old Bay. And I love me some Orioles.

I don't reprint press releases very often but if I was in Baltimore on Saturday, I would be at Camden Yards for this promotion:

OLD BAY SPICES UP CAMDEN YARDS

The Orioles and Charm City Cakes help celebrate the 70th BIRTHDAY of a Baltimore icon.

What:

Cake creator extraordinaire Duff Goldman of Baltimore’s Charm City Cakes will help celebrate the 70th birthday of Baltimore’s own OLD BAY Seasoning prior to the Orioles-Braves game with the unveiling of a larger-than-life cake that replicates the iconic yellow and blue can with the red lid. Duff will also be throwing out the first pitch and the first 10,000 attendees age 15 and over will receive an OLD BAY mallet

When: Saturday, June 13th
Presentation begins at 6:30pm

Where: Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves Game
Camden Yards


Background:

For 70 years, this distinctive blend of twelve herbs and spices has been a time-honored taste of summer. Just as the recipe hasn’t changed, neither has the iconic yellow and blue can. Once only enjoyed by a lucky few along the Chesapeake Bay, OLD BAY® Seasoning has gained fans all across the country. Best known as THE seasoning for shrimp, salmon, crab and other seafood dishes, these days, OLD BAY is used to flavor hamburgers, chicken, pizza, pasta, vegetable dishes and more. For information visit www.oldbay.com

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I like Melvin Mora. I have enjoyed watching him through out his Oriole career. But he's done. The Orioles should not pick up his option for the 2010 season. I'll probably harp on that fact as the season goes on but Mora is doing a pretty good job of sealing that fate himself.

Mora is OPSing .653 which puts his bat within shouting distance of Cesar Izturis (.620) and even Felix Pie (.595). But Mora is no longer a great glove or a kid. It's probably going to get worse. Month by month, his OPS has dropped from .940 in April (over 7 games) to .647 in May and a meager .417 in June.

He'll probably play out the year since the Orioles don't have many internal options but 2009 should be his Oriole swansong.

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Some sage words form Rick Dempsey about Jeremy Guthrie:

Usually it is pretty easy for me to watch a pitcher and see what he is doing right or wrong. A lot of times all you have to do is watch the flight and spin of the ball, and it can tell you exactly what you want to know....

From what I've seen, its not just one thing. There's a lot going on right now that nobody can figure out except Jeremy.

Obviously, I don't see every pitch of every game like Rick does (and based on the copious notes and score keeping I saw him taking during the MASN Oriole Blogger Night last month, he's certainly paying close attention) but I was working on a post about Jeremy Guthrie and trying to figure out why he was giving up so many homers this year. After pouring over Pitch F/X data, pitch types, pitch sequence, the counts , his velocity, the types of hitters he's facing...everything I could think of. But there's no common denominator! They're launching home runs off of every kind of pitch he throw without discrimination. It doesn't happen when he's behind in the count. He velocity and control (at least, his walk rates and amount of strikes he throws) are consistent with his first two seasons.

So I've got to go with Rick on this one. It not just one thing...but you would like to think Guthrie can solve it sooner than later.

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It's been a rough week for the Orioles but the Braves have been having trouble scoring runs too. Could this weekend be the remedy for the Baltimore win column?

Let's go O's!