IP K BB HR ERA FIP BB/9 K/9 K/BB Arrieta '10 100.1 52 48 9 4.66 4.78 4.66 4.31 1.08
The big problem for Arrieta here is the high number of walks, which until recently, outnumbered the strikeouts. His control is an issue and always has been. (He walked 4.19 per 9 in Norfolk too...) His rate of walks for Baltimore would put him dead last in baseball if it qualified and pitchers don't survive that kind of wildness. That will have to improve if he is to have long term success.
However, putting up an ERA near league average is pretty good and the FIP supports that. He only gave up 9 homers for a .81 HR/9 which is a very good sign. And I think his stuff is such that he can get that K/9 rate up over 7, at least.
And in September, a funny thing happened. Arrieta started throwing strikes.
IP K BB HR ERA FIP BB/9 K/9 K/BB Arrieta Sept. 17.1 13 2 1 2.60 2.86 1.04 6.75 6.50
It was only three starts and it would have been nice to see Arrieta make a couple more starts. (Although, Arrieta was up over 174 innings pitched this season; it's likely he would have been shut down, bone spur or not.) But that's a nice little blip that gives you some hope that Jake is capable of overcoming his wildness and that his stuff can play at the highest level. And if he can do that, he will be a big part of the short and long term success of the Baltimore Orioles.
With the debut of Jake Arrieta tonight, the most recent wave of top young arms are all in Baltimore. Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Arrieta lead the way and, to a lesser extent, Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez are now in Baltimore to stay.
But there's still more reason to be optimistic about the Orioles rotation of the future. There are still quality arms in the minor leagues and they should be coming to Baltimore as soon as 2011-2013.
Here are some highlights:
Zach Britton - 3rd Rd, 2006
IP K BB HR ERA WHIP Britton AA 67.0 49 23 4 2.96 1.29
The 22-year-old lefty is probably the top prospect left in the minors and could be in Baltimore as soon as 2011. He has picked up where he left off in 2009 for Frederick by inducing groundballs at a 65.7% rate in AA Bowie. His K rate has dropped but then so has the walk rate. A lefty sinkerballer in orange and black? We could use him against the Yankees right now.
Tim Bascom - 4th Rd, 2007
IP K BB HR ERA WHIP Bascom - AA 63.0 41 10 6 3.43 1.28
While Arrieta makes his MLB debut, Bascom makes his AAA debut for Norfolk tonight. The 25-year-old righty is kind of a flyball pitcher but the split is not extreme. He has improved his control a lot this season and I suppose that will be the factor that decides how successful he will be going forward. Bascom could force his way to Baltimore in mid-summer 2011.
There are an interesting trio of lefties having success in Frederick this season. They are all between 23 and 24 years old, none were high draft picks and none were considered top prospects coming in to this season.
McCurry has the best stuff as he is striking out nearly a batter per inning. Both Nery and Zagone get by with inducing grounders and (especially Nery) limiting the free passes.
At least one of these guys should be up in Bowie pretty soon and you have to think that one of these three emerges as a serious prospect by year's end.
Ryan Berry - 9th Rd, 2009
IP K BB HR ERA WHIP Berry - A/A+ 65.1 57 17 6 3.17 1.27
Berry was on his way to being a first round selection in 2009 when he hurt his shoulder during his senior season at Rice. Berry has dominated the lower levels and looks to move quickly through the organization. Still just 21, I wouldn't be surprised if he's pitching in Bowie by season's end and be in Baltimore by 2013.
According to Jake Arrieta's Facebook, he's starting tomorrow night vs the Yankees. #Orioles
For the rest of the season, this is great news. Giving a bunch of starts to the trio of Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta for the rest of 2010 is the best recipe for the Orioles' long term prospects, especially since 2010 is a lost season.
But against (arguably) the best team in baseball? Wouldn't Saturday against the Mets lineup have made for a better debut for a rookie? Or did Arrieta ask for this?
It was a gorgeous spring evening in Lawrenceville, GA as the Tides took on the Gwinnett Braves. If only the promotion for the evening hadn't been a thunderstix giveaway, the evening would have been perfect. OK, maybe if the Tides had not lost 6-1, it would have been perfect.
Starting pitcher and top pitching prospect Jake Arrieta battled wildness during Thursday night's loss but was still able to turn in a quality start going 6 innings and giving up three earned runs, all on a three-run homer to G-Braves RF Mitch Jones.
Arrieta cruised for the first three innings, retiring 10 of the first 11 batters, surrendering only a walk to G-Braves 1B (and top prospect) Freddie Freeman. In the 4th, he then gave up a blooper to left center, a sharply hit grounder to right and the three-run Jones homer.
Arrieta was working deep into counts most of the night and walked 4 batters on the night but still had the stuff to pitch out of trouble and struck out 4 as well. His fastball sat at 89-91 but he hit 94 several times. He works under control, doesn't overthrow but can reach back for extra when he needs to. He mixed in a slider in the mid-80's and an occasional curveball in the high-70's.
Arrieta was visibly frustrated with his control at times. But really, Arrieta pitched OK. He only gave up two solid hits (the sharp grounder and three-run homer, both in the 4th inning) and was able to pitch around the walks and errors. Even with the loss, Arrieta has only a 1.16 ERA over 5 International League starts.
The offense was another story. G-Braves starter Chris Resop, a journeyman pitcher, was wild as well but managed to strike out 8 Tides batters over his 6 innings of work. The Tides twice loaded the bases on Resop as he walked five and threw a wild pitch but Resop was always able to work out of the jams with minimal damage. Tides 3B Scott Moore's RBI single in the 3rd was the only run allowed by Braves pitching.
More player notes:
SS Robert Andino - Whenever a player is sent back to the minors, you would like to think it won't affect his attitude. In Andino's case, it looks like it has. I am not normally one to jump on players for not trying or not hustling when they are playing poorly but Andino barely looked interested. He failed to run hard on a groundout to short even though he certainly had a fair chance of making it to first safely (if the throw wasn't perfect) and made no effort to throw to first to complete a double-play later in the game. Both those plays were makeable but Andino just didn't make the extra effort. (OF Jeff Salazar, in stark contrast, ran hard on similar groundball to short.) He misplayed a flare that dropped for a hit in the 4th and made a throwing error in the 8th that seem to be extensions of the general lack of focus on defense that he displayed in Spring Training. It's just one game but I don't want to see him back in Baltimore. I'm not sure I even want to see him in Norfolk.
C Adam Donachie - Long time readers know that I have liked Donachie ever since the Orioles picked him in the Rule 5 draft in 2007. He didn't stick with the team that time but was signed by the O's later on. He works hard behind the plate, seems to have a good rapport with the pitchers and, on the rare occasion that he hits the ball, hits it hard. Donachie will never be a good major league starter but I think he could be a very good backup, a defense-first backstop with some power. I don't think he would be any worse than Craig Tatum and Tatum has found major league work.
1B Brandon Snyder - Snyder has not had a great start at Norfolk but it doesn't seem to be making him desperate. His approach is still good, he works the count and drew three walks on Thursday.
OF Corey Patterson - For the first time since the end of 2007, Patterson is back in the Oriole organization. He's not hitting much so far but was playing his signature stellar defense in rightfield last night and made3 a nice play on a foul ball down the rightfield line.
RP Pedro Viola - It's easy to see why the Orioles took a flyer on Pedro Viola and claimed him off waivers from the Reds earlier this month. The lefty reliever's fastball was sitting at 92-94 and hitting 97 on a regular basis. That kind of left arm doesn't grow on trees. Unfortunately, he didn't know where it was going last night as he gave up 2 hits, a walk and a run in just one inning pitched. If they can get him straightened out, he'll be nasty. When that fastball is over the plate, nobody can hit it.
Brad Bergesen makes his first, and perhaps only start for Triple-A Norfolk tomorrow. A quality outing could lead him back to the Orioles and that May 1 start against the Red Sox at Camden Yards. - Roch Kubatko Brad Bergesen wins in his first (maybe only?) start at Triple-A Norfolk. - Baltimore Sun Sports Twitter Account Sunday, (Bergesen) went 7.0 and gave up just 2 ER...He should have May 1 circled on his calendar as his return to the Orioles as a starter and a bus ticket to Baltimore in hand. - Camden Chat Do these guys know something I don't?
And do they remember how horrible Bergesen looked in his three major league starts?
So why would Bergesen go to Norfolk for a single start and come back to Baltimore? One solid start against AAA hitters is not enough for me to regain confidence. If you're going to use his option under the premise that he needed to work on his sinker and control, I sincerely doubt that he put everything together in one start. At least three would be my preference.
Besides, he's not the only option. Jason Berken can make a couple of spot starts (on May 1st and the 6th) or he could even split those two starts with Mark Hendrickson. After that, the Orioles wouldn't need their 5th starter until May 16th. If Bergesen is still mowing down the International League, bring him up then.
Or...give Jake Arrieta the call. Jake's line from AAA this season:
IP K BB HR ERA WHIP Arrieta 25.0 23 10 0 0.36 0.92
In addition, he is inducing a 53.7% groundball rate and has only given up 4 extra base hits this season. (By the way, Bergesen gave up 3 extra base hits, including a home run, for Norfolk on Sunday) Arrieta now has 21 starts in AAA and, even with some initial struggles after his promotion last year, has a 3.16 ERA over those starts. If you're going to pull the trigger and call someone up from Norfolk, Arrieta's the man...and Bergesen's start wasn't as sparkling as it looks in the boxscore.
A couple of notes from Jim Callis' "top tools" column...
Zach Britton (Orioles) doesn't dazzle on the radar gun like Strasburg, Feliz or Chapman, but his 88-92 mph fastball stood out for our panel, who anointed it the best sinker in the minors. It's a heavy pitch with late sink and run, and Britton can carry the life on his sinker into the late innings as a starter. He had a 3.4 groundout/airout ratio last year, when he was the high Class A Carolina League pitcher of the year as a 20-year-old....
The top changeup artists all stand out for their well-rounded repertoires. Brian Matusz (Orioles) has lived up to his billing as the top pitcher in the 2008 draft thanks to his plus-plus changeup—as well as his curveball and slider, both of which drew votes as ranking among the best in the minors, and a low-90s fastball that touches 95.
So the O's have the prospects with the best sinker and the best changeup. There has never been a time in my fandom when the Orioles has had so much nationally acclaimed talent in their system.
Scott Moore: I've been a fan of Moore's for awhile. Moore came over from the Cubs in the Steve Trachsel trade but due to various injuries (most recently his thumb) he only played in 82 games in 2008 and 32 games in 2009. I like giving a healthy Scott Moore a shot to play third for Baltimore in 2010 than signing Joe Crede or Miguel Tejada. The problem is his health and only the Orioles have a good idea if he's healthy enough to compete.
Chris George and Mike Hinckley: George is a former 1998 1st round draft pick of the Royals who hasn't had any success on any level since 2004.
Hinckley is a castoff from the Nationals who walks nearly as many as he strikes out.
Look for these lefties to pitch a lot of meaningless innings.
Jake Arrieta: I cannot imagine Arrieta starting the season in Baltimore but you never know. I expect him to start the year in Norfolk but a torrid spring could change some minds.
Josh Perrault: This righty reliever in the pitcher most likely to go north with the team. Perrault mowed them down in Bowie and Norfolk but is a bit of a flyball pitcher.
Alfredo Simon: NOOOO! NOOOOOOO! Simon shouldn't have made the team last season. I'll repeat my killer Simon stat...Simon has not posted an ERA under 6.00 at any level since 2005.
Frank Mata: A wild reliever who has never pitched above AA. Spring Training roster filler.
Ross Wolf: Wolf had a good, not great season at AAA Norfolk in 2009. It's hard to see him pitching well enough to make the club but he's a groundball specialist and that may serve him well.
Michael Hernandez, Caleb Joseph and Chad Moeller: As regular readers may know, I am always fascinated by the annual competition for backup catcher during Spring Training and spend an inordinate amount of time commenting on it. The job is wide open and along with Craig Tatum, these guys are the leading candidates.
Michel Hernandez is a career minor leaguer with a few cups of coffee in the bigs. He has a decent defensive rep and hits lefty pitching well.
Chad Moeller probably has the inside track given his good work last season. He's all catcher, no hitter.
Craig Tatum (who is on the 40-man roster) has a very good defensive rep and has show flashes of capable hitting in the minors.
Caleb Joseph is a top prospect in the Oriole farm system. He's probably here to get some work in with higher level players but there's always a chance...
Jeff Salazar: Salazar is a light-hitting minor league outfielder. Baltimore already has 5 outfielders. Salazar will be the official "bus rider" for Spring Training playing many games in Jupiter and Port St. Lucie and few in Sarasota.
I was going to save this for the next Oriole Blogosphere post but these interviews with Jake Arrietta and Troy Patton make for good viewing and are a pretty cool "get" for a bunch of bloggers. Well done!
*****
Brady Anderson writes an op-ed piece defending Orioles owner Peter Angelos. Among his defenses:
The article states that....Mr. Angelos began his "notorious meddling" by firing manager Davey Johnson. That is not what happened. Mr. Johnson resigned; he was not fired. The dispute between Mr. Angelos and Mr. Johnson began when Mr. Johnson fined Roberto Alomar, unilaterally, and without the owner's knowledge or consent, for missing a mandatory team function. I was really bothered by the Johnson resignation. I loved playing for Davey and believe the Orioles would have continued to compete for championships had he stayed. I also think that if Davey had really wanted to stay he was more than capable of convincing Mr. Angelos to retain him for many years.
OK, but you could conversely make the argument that Mr. Angelos was capable of convincing Johnson to stay as well.
That point aside, Anderson does make a few good points and seems to genuinely admire and respect Peter Angelos.
I certainly have my issues with Angelos as a manager but hardly think he's the win-draining diabolical monster some paint him to be. Nor do I find him a shrewd manager of his resources and a magnanimous owner who is solely responsible for the Orioles' success in the mid-90's. I imagine, as with most things, the truth lies in the middle.
*****
Spring Training update: Arizona? Arizona? What the hell? I'm fine with Baltimore training anywhere in Florida...but not Arizona.
Meanwhile the Orioles are still in negotiations with Sarasota and Lee counties about moving their Spring Training to Florida's west coast. Some commissioners are worried about how much money the Orioles will want in stadium improvements:
(Lee County Commissioner Frank Mann) is concerned that the Orioles may ask for at least $10 million in upgrades.
"If less, I'll kiss a monkey right out there on the steps," Mann said, gesturing toward the north side of the old county courthouse.
Now that would be an entertaining County Board meeting. Do these guys know how to party or what? If I were John Angelos, I would make primate smooching a prerequisite to move to Lee County.
So, as you probably know, the Orioles have this center fielder who is having a pretty good season. Unless he falls apart in June, there’s a pretty decent chance that Adam Jones will make his first All-Star team this summer at the ripe old age of 23. He’s one of the core pieces of the Orioles rebuilding process, and if the M’s wanted to get him back, they probably couldn’t, even if they offered up the entire farm system and the deed to Mt. Rainier. He’s that valuable. And, but for some really terrible decision making, he could have been ours.
Adam Jones came back to Seattle today with an entourage -- two burly guys standing by his locker in the visiting clubhouse at Safeco Field wearing Orioles' jerseys with "Jones" on the back.
OK, it was his brother and cousin, come up from San Diego to visit Adam -- who actually seems quite unaffected by the giant step into stardom he has taken this season.
"I'm just maturing as a baseball player,'' he said with a shrug. "Figuring out my role and not trying to do too much. Playing the game the way I know how to play it."
Which, as every wistful Mariners' fan is well aware, is good enough to make him one of the game's most exciting young players, almost certainly headed, at age 23, to his first All-Star Game. Jones is the most hilarious deadpan quote dropper ever. When asked about coming "home" to Seattle:
Asked if he feels any special tugs coming back to Seattle, Jones replied, "Nothing. It's just a regular city. We're on the road. Just got to come here and do what our team tries to accomplish on the road."
In fact, he seemed to have more attachment to Tacoma. "I got to know a lot of the fans there, because I was in Tacoma for most of the time,'' he said. "They're great people. They treated me with utmost respect. I'd say last year was good for me, because they (the Orioles) gave me an opportunity, but I'm also glad I had the opportunity to play over there." Hysterical. The Orioles gave me a shot in Baltimore but Seattle gave me a shot in AAA Tacoma. I really got to know the people in Tacoma. Not so much in Seattle. Awesome.
The highlight of Wieters Weekend for me was watching him get challenged by Justin Verlander and getting blown away that first at bat and then coming back the next time and drilling Verlander fastball off the center field wall for a triple and his first major league hit. Nice adjustment and it bodes well...
