Around the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Arbitration Edition

Sully Baseball thinks teams should beware of the Orioles in 2011.

And he's not the only one. NESN's Tony Lee thinks that the AL East will get even tougher as the Orioles and Blue Jays improve.

The Orioles will be scouring the waiver wire for players who are not tendered contracts this weekend. And they may not tender one member of their bullpen. Guess who?

If you've been living in a cave for the past week and haven't seen the Felix Pie meltdown, enjoy.

Steve Giles of the Baltimore Sports Report ponders what it will mean now that top pitching prospect Zach Britton has signed with Scott Boras. Although I think Steve's outlook is a bit of the Pollyanna treatment, Baltimore won't have to worry about Boras vis a vis Britton for a few years anyway.

Call to the Pen takes a look at his Top 100 Prospects list and feels there is a bleak outlook for Baltimore down on the farm. I disagree...a bit. More on that later.

What has 13 straight losing seasons wrought? Some October Refugees. Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times takes a look at the best players of the Wild Card era to never play in the postseason. Baltimore is represented, as you would expect.

Checking In With the Farm Clubs - High Minors

Not as much to look at in the upper levels as there was in the lower levels...but here they are.

Bowie Baysox

Joel Guzman - 1B/3B/OF

Guzman is a former top prospect in the Dodger organization who flamed out and has bounced around for the last three years. However, the 25-year-old Guzman is hitting .272/.336/.535 with 17 homers for Bowie this season.

Late bloomer? Who knows? But he's an interesting hitter who plays a position that the Orioles need. (I don't know if I should be enthused that the O's found Guzman or depressed that he is, by far, the most promising hitter on the Baysox this season...)

Zach Britton - SP

The top Oriole prospect in the high minors, the 22-year-old Britton continues to impress. His ground ball rate stands at 65.2% this season and that's no fluke; his GB% has been 63% or above for the last four seasons.

K/BB ratio is still more than 2 to 1 and a 2.62 ERA at AA should lead Britton to a promotion to Norfolk before season's end.

Eddie Gamboa - RP

I like Eddie. He rose fast last season and has continued to turn in good work in Bowie. He's striking out a batter an inning and while the walk rate is not great, the K/BB ratio is still 2.5 to 1. He's just another reason I think the bullpen can be rebuilt from within.



Jim Hoey - RP

Hoey seems to have worked himself back from injury problems to and is striking out batters like crazy (11.5 K/9). I guess I'll believe it if he starts doing it at AAA again.



Norfolk Tides

Josh Bell - 3B

Bell has been maligned for a couple reasons this season. First, he can't hit lefties and people are demanding that he abandon switch hitting. (I've never really understood that argument. How do we know he can hit lefties better batting lefthanded than righthanded?) Second, he has not hit overall like he was expected to after his promotion to AAA.

The L/R splits are troubling. However, his bat is probably not as bad as it looks right now. First, his offensive numbers have improved each month of the season:

Slash Line    BB   K   HR
Apr  .238/.256/.405    2  21    3
May  .282/.325/.455    7  29    3
June .275/.367/.451    7  12    2

After a horrific April, he has focused on being more selective at the plate and it has paid off. Taking away April, his K/BB ratio is 3 to 1, not terrific but it's respectable and trending the right way.

Furthermore, according to Minor League Splits, if you normalize his numbers for park factor and luck, his .265/.312/.437 line becomes .294/.338/.494.

He's trending well and hitting better than his numbers show. He won't be pushing Miguel Tejada out of town this season liked many had hoped but he's having a productive season for a 23-year-old in AAA.



Brandon Snyder - 1B

Some better trends for Snyder as well, although in a different manner than Bell.

After putting up an OPS's of .615 and .659 in April and May respectively, Snyder is posting a line of .327/.389/.531 in June. He still isn't walking enough but this follows Snyder's development through the minors thus far. He tends to have a long learning curve when he moves up a level but when he gets it, he catches fire. It has taken him 5 months at AAA to come around but this may be the turning point that lands Snyder in the majors in 2011.

I don't think Snyder will ever be a great first baseman but he will be serviceable enough that we won't have to sign the like of Garrett Atkins again. (Not that we needed to in the first place...)




Tim Bascom - SP

Bascom is the starting pitcher who is closest to Baltimore now that Jake Arrieta was promoted. His stuff is marginal and he's a flyball pitcher but he has improved through each level, especially with his control as his walk rate is a minuscule 1.4 BB/9 in Bowie and Norfolk combined. He paints the corners and will have to hope his control and stuff are good enough to work the edges in the majors...but it could work.



Dennis Sarfate - RP

Just a quick note about Sarfate...

Yeah, he's got his velocity back and he's striking out 11.79 per 9 innings. But his walk rate is 5.32 K/9 and that's not going to play at the next level. Get it under control Dennis.

Oriole Arms: The Next Wave

With the debut of Jake Arrieta tonight, the most recent wave of top young arms are all in Baltimore. Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Arrieta lead the way and, to a lesser extent, Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez are now in Baltimore to stay.

But there's still more reason to be optimistic about the Orioles rotation of the future. There are still quality arms in the minor leagues and they should be coming to Baltimore as soon as 2011-2013.

Here are some highlights:

Zach Britton - 3rd Rd, 2006

             IP    K   BB   HR   ERA   WHIP
Britton AA  67.0  49   23    4  2.96   1.29

The 22-year-old lefty is probably the top prospect left in the minors and could be in Baltimore as soon as 2011. He has picked up where he left off in 2009 for Frederick by inducing groundballs at a 65.7% rate in AA Bowie. His K rate has dropped but then so has the walk rate. A lefty sinkerballer in orange and black? We could use him against the Yankees right now.

Tim Bascom - 4th Rd, 2007

              IP    K   BB   HR   ERA   WHIP
Bascom - AA  63.0  41   10    6  3.43   1.28

While Arrieta makes his MLB debut, Bascom makes his AAA debut for Norfolk tonight. The 25-year-old righty is kind of a flyball pitcher but the split is not extreme. He has improved his control a lot this season and I suppose that will be the factor that decides how successful he will be going forward. Bascom could force his way to Baltimore in mid-summer 2011.

Cole McCurry - 43rd Rd, 2007
Nathan Nery - 18th Rd, 2006
Richard Zagone - 6th Rd, 2008

               IP    K   BB   HR   ERA   WHIP
McCurry - A+  48.2  48   18    6  3.51   1.29
Nery - A+     66.1  38   12    8  3.53   1.14
Zagone - A+   64.1  45   20    4  3.36   1.27

There are an interesting trio of lefties having success in Frederick this season. They are all between 23 and 24 years old, none were high draft picks and none were considered top prospects coming in to this season.

McCurry has the best stuff as he is striking out nearly a batter per inning. Both Nery and Zagone get by with inducing grounders and (especially Nery) limiting the free passes.

At least one of these guys should be up in Bowie pretty soon and you have to think that one of these three emerges as a serious prospect by year's end.

Ryan Berry - 9th Rd, 2009

               IP    K   BB   HR   ERA   WHIP
Berry - A/A+  65.1  57   17    6  3.17   1.27

Berry was on his way to being a first round selection in 2009 when he hurt his shoulder during his senior season at Rice. Berry has dominated the lower levels and looks to move quickly through the organization. Still just 21, I wouldn't be surprised if he's pitching in Bowie by season's end and be in Baltimore by 2013.

Baby Birds Make Yet Another Top Prospect List

Baseball America released their 2010 Top 100 Prospects List and four Orioles made the list. LHP Brian Matusz (5), 3B Josh Bell (37), LHP Zach Britton (63) and RHP Jake Arrieta (99) all made the list.

A couple of notes from Jim Callis' "top tools" column...

Zach Britton (Orioles) doesn't dazzle on the radar gun like Strasburg, Feliz or Chapman, but his 88-92 mph fastball stood out for our panel, who anointed it the best sinker in the minors. It's a heavy pitch with late sink and run, and Britton can carry the life on his sinker into the late innings as a starter. He had a 3.4 groundout/airout ratio last year, when he was the high Class A Carolina League pitcher of the year as a 20-year-old....

The top changeup artists all stand out for their well-rounded repertoires. Brian Matusz (Orioles) has lived up to his billing as the top pitcher in the 2008 draft thanks to his plus-plus changeup—as well as his curveball and slider, both of which drew votes as ranking among the best in the minors, and a low-90s fastball that touches 95.

So the O's have the prospects with the best sinker and the best changeup. There has never been a time in my fandom when the Orioles has had so much nationally acclaimed talent in their system.

So we got that going for us. Which is nice.

Base Hits: Blog-O-Sphere, Prospect Lists and a Partridge in a Pear Tree

Some Christmas gifts from the Blog-O-Sphere...

Ben has risen from the ashes of MVN to revive Oriole Central (or is it Camden Central) on the original Wordpress platform and the Oriole blogosphere is richer because of it.

Similiarly, Crawdaddy, one of my old comrades from the Baltimore Orioles Round Table, has also resurfaced with Camden Depot now on the Blogger platform servicing all your Oriole scouting needs. Crawdaddy has also added a neat feature to his website: the 40-man roster with each player's name color-coded to indicate how many minor league options they have remaining. Very useful and leaves me wondering why I didn't think of it myself.

Other MVN refugee news has Oriole Magic writers Anthony and James writing for Anthony's original blog, Oriole Post.

Everybody's back for the holidays... (sniff)

*****

Relive Nick Markakis' journey through the minor leagues via this article at MiLB.com. Nick is a gift none of us will return.

*****

Baseball America finally put out their list of the Top 10 Oriole Prospects. One universal in most of these lists has been the rise of soon-to-be Bowie pitcher Zach Britton who come in at #3 on BA's list:

When talking about elite pitching prospects in the Orioles organization, it's time to add Britton's name to the discussion. He was the pitcher of the year in the Carolina League last season, and his 2.70 ERA ranked second in the league...

Britton seems like the typical sinker/slider pitcher, except that his fastball touches 94 mph. His velocity improved last season, and he usually works in the 88-92 range with his sinker, adding a four-seam fastball to go with it.

It also says he has improved his changeup thanks to tips from Brian Matusz. That's a good thing, first because he improved his changeup and secondly because it says a lot about Matusz that he took the time and had the ability to impart that to a younger pitcher. Matusz gave Britton a gift that will keep on giving through the New Year.

*****

The Phillies sign Danys Baez.

Who knew that Mr. Reluctant would become a man of mystery so soon after leaving Baltimore.

*****

Michael Aubrey says he's happy with the moves the Orioles made this season...but he's not really. They add one more veteran corner infield bat and Aubrey is buried in AAA.

*****

The Orioles have signed 19-year-old LHP Chris Lamb form Australia. Feel free to read the scouting report but it's more improtant evidence that the Orioles are looking overseas for talent.

*****

Since everybody is posting their Oriole retrospectives of the '00's, I'll link back to mine from earlier this offseason.

*****

Merry Christmas people.

Base Hits: 100 Losses, Sarasota Awaits and Revisiting Felix Pie

Since 100 losses seems to have reared its ugly head again, (many consider it a foregone conclusion), let's see how bad it would have to get for the O's to reach the century mark.

For the Orioles to lose 100 games, they would have to go 8-20 to close out the season. Their month by month records for 2009:

            Record
Mar/April    9-13
May         14-15
June        12-14
July         9-16
August      10-20

Baltimore is already 0-2 in September so it would take an 8-22 record for September and October to reach such lows. Throughout this interminable drought of winning seasons, the Orioles have flirted with that level of futility but only achieved it once: last September when they went 5-20.

There are more games left due to playing into the first week of October but even if the Orioles swept the Rangers this weekend they could go 5-20 to finish the year and lose 100 games.

The Orioles are not going to sweep the Rangers. With Adam Jones and Brad Bergesen shut down for the season and Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz soon to follow...this hopeful fan is losing hope.

It's quite possible at this point that we will see triple digit losses for the first time since 1988. (And we still won't get the first overall pick...the Nationals have 8 games on us.)

*****

Sarasota sees the last FSL game at Ed Smith Stadium (by the Reds affiliate) of the season and for the foreseeable future as the Baltimore Orioles prepare to move their Spring Training home there in 2010.

The Florida State League is a high A league and while I can't imagine the O's changing affiliations from Frederick to Sarasota, I also can't imagine them doing nothing with Ed Smith Stadium. The GCL Orioles maybe?

*****

Baseball America has a spotlight article on Oriole prospect and Frederick Key Zach Britton. (subscription only) The key to his success?

The 6-foot-3, 190-pound Britton throws a four-seam fastball, changeup and slider. His out pitch has been an exceptional sinker.

"It's not a two-seam grip, its an actual sinker grip which I learned from (Scott McGregor) our pitching coach in (short-season) Aberdeen," Britton said. "I kind of throw it with a type of curveball grip, which gives it a little more sink and gets more ground balls. I throw it about 50 percent of the time when I'm throwing fastballs."

According to MinorLeagueSplits.com, Britton has induced grounders at a 65% rate in 2009. Nothing wrong with a sinkerballer in Camden Yards.

*****

As you probably know, Adam Jones sprained his ankle during the Yankee series and will likely miss the rest of the season. That sucks.

However, Felix Pie will be a regular in the outfield for the rest of the season. That is awesome.

If you've been reading the blog this season, you know that I have been a strident supporter of Pie remaining the Oriole. I backed him when Lou Montanez outplayed him during Spring Training, I backed him when he struggled to start the season and only relegated him to "the 4th outfielder" when Nolan Reimold was called up and showed he was more deserving of an everyday role. But I still believed in Pie and thought that Dave Trembley wasn't utilizing him enough as a defensive replacement or pinch runner. (Even with his early season struggles in left, Pie has been the best defender in the Baltimore outfield this year.)

So this silver lining to a bad injury, these 28 games of opportunity are Pie's shot. Maybe they keep him in left and move Reimold to first. Maybe they trade Pie (or Reimold(!!!)) in a package for a veteran pitcher or young third baseman. Regardless, I believe Pie will increase his value to the team, either as trade bait or a player in September.

*****

Off topic.

I love the Baltimore Orioles. No surprise. But I live and die with my beloved Washington Redskins just as much, if not more.

The team under Daniel Snyder has been frustrating. They underachieve, the front office signs aging players, there is a coaching merry-go-round and all of it never seems to gel right. But I'm an Orioles fan. I know how to root for a loser.

The team gouges its fans. Parking, concessions and tickets are ridiculously expensive. They charge admission to training camp. They have a captive, loyal audience that they milk for every dime they can. But I've excused it because pro football is a TV game anyway (in my opinion) and I'm all for a guy making a buck. Football is a business too.

But this may be the last straw...the team is suing fans who default on their (insane) 10 year season ticket contracts. Including 72-year-old grandmothers like Pat Hill:

On Oct. 8, the Redskins sued Hill in Prince George's County Circuit Court for backing out of a 10-year ticket-renewal agreement after the first year. The team sought payment for every season through 2017, plus interest, attorneys' fees and court costs...

Hill is one of 125 season ticket holders who asked to be released from multiyear contracts and were sued by the Redskins in the past five years. The Washington Post interviewed about two dozen of them. Most said that they were victims of the economic downturn, having lost a job or experiencing some other financial hardship.

OK, if someone can't or doesn't pay for their season tickets, the team is well within their rights to revoke the fan's claim on those seats and sell them elsewhere. Redskin season tickets are still a hot commodity; those won't be empty seats for long.

But to sue for the entire value of the ten-year contract? Your biggest fans? And you're the richest team in the NFL?

It's too much. I'm taking a break. I can't root for the Redskins this year. time to find a new team for 2009...and maybe beyond.

Boooo, Mr Snyder! Booooo!