A few things I read in a Britt Ghiroli post yesterday have me all worked up about Victor Martinez again. (Bear with me, there's a point here...)
Orioles fans are upset about losing Martinez, and understandably so. He would have been a nice addition...
If losing Martinez showed anything, it is that the Orioles are going to struggle to sign any big-name free agents. To think they are going to solve their holes in the infield and batting lineup without making a trade --likely costing them a young arm or two -- is naive.
They aren't getting away from MacPhail's mantra of stockpiling young arms. But if they are going to keep up with the "buy the bats" approach, it will take more than opening their wallets for the Konerko's and Pena's to field a competitive team next spring. It will probably take a trade....
I'm not going to pick on Ghiroli here, her view is reflected by every local mainstream writer on the Oriole beat. There are a few truths that just seem to be givens concerning the Orioles' pursuit of Victor Martinez:
1. Martinez would have been a good fit for Baltimore.
2. Not only was offering Martinez $48 million for 4 years the correct thing to do, the Orioles probably should have offered more.
3. Martinez didn't want to come here because Baltimore is not an attractive destination for free agents and thus:
4. The Orioles must pay through the nose to attract even moderately attractive talent.
I won't argue the first point. Martinez playing first base over the next three or four seasons would have been just fine. The problem comes with the price and length of contract the Orioles offered to try to get him.
To address the second assumption, I will refer you back to this post and restate that while Martinez' bat is a superior one for a catcher, it is middling compared to other first basemen in the league. It ranks somewhere above Adam LaRoche and under Todd Helton over the past four seasons. Martinez was not going to catch much, if at all, in Baltimore. (Apparently, he won't be catching much in Detroit either...)
That greatly reduces his value. Period. Think about it this way: Is anybody clamoring to lock up Luke Scott to a four year deal for $12 mil per season? No. Nor should they. But over the past three seasons, Scott has posted an OPS over 20 points higher than Martinez (and has played about 50 more games over that stretch too). But Martinez is the middle-of-the-order bat Baltimore needs? Thinks about that. Not even the hitter that Luke Scott is. Closer to Adam LaRoche in production. Is this the big bat Andy MacPhail promised? (And I'm not even factoring in the 2nd Round pick the Orioles would have lost in the 2011 draft...)
Remember when Miguel Tejada was signed last offseason and many in the media (and Dave Trembley himself) penciled him in as the cleanup hitter? Seems silly now, right? It was because they remembered Tejada as he was in 2006, not as he was in 2009. Three years of declining power didn't seem to be a signal to anybody that this was a terrible idea. Fans and media alike are remembering Martinez' value as a catcher, not the value he will provide going forward as, primarily, a first baseman or a DH.
You know what other scenario it reminds me of? Javy Lopez. I'm still of the mind that the Orioles dodged a bullet when Martinez picked Detroit.
Speaking of jilting Baltimore, why is it that Boston is not being maligned? Were they not also rejected? Is anybody assuming that Boston is an unattractive destination? That their money is no good to free agents? Of course not. Baltimore is more attractive as a destination than it has been in years. Martinez didn't give Boston the chance to up their offer either. He liked the Tigers' money and their general situation. That doesn't make other destinations unattractive, not necessarily. That's just Baltimore's inferiority complex talking.
But even if that were true, why should Baltimore strap itself down to a bad, multi-year contract just to land somebody? That doesn't work, folks. Javy Lopez. Miguel Tejada. Albert Belle. Spending money for money's sake, just to land a player, doesn't solve the losing. It's counterproductive. If the right deal isn't there, you have to let it go. You can't expect the club to panic. You should hope for just the opposite. You also can't throw a big money, multi-year deal at a middle-aged, middling bat just to "do something". But that's exactly what MacPhail did. And he acts like this was a big thrust of his offseason plans.
So the fans and mainstream media shouldn't be asking why the Orioles couldn't land Victor Martinez. The real story, the real question that should be asked is this: Why were they pursuing him so hard in the first place?
Hiển thị các bài đăng có nhãn 2011. Hiển thị tất cả bài đăng
Hiển thị các bài đăng có nhãn 2011. Hiển thị tất cả bài đăng
Thứ Hai, 29 tháng 11, 2010
Thứ Ba, 23 tháng 11, 2010
Why Baltimore is Better Off Without V-Mart
Reportedly, Victor Martinez will leave the Red Sox and sign with the Tigers for 4 years and $50 million. Since the news broke, Twitter has been all, uh, atwitter with Orioles fans lamenting the club for not being more aggressive in going after V-Mart. A sampling:
"Tigers have reportedly outbid the Red Sox, White Sox and Orioles for Victor Martinez....Not good news for BAL."
"the orioles got outbid for a good player?? No wayyyy"
"Vintage Orioles. Offer just enough to make sure they get turned down so they can say the tried."
"Dammit, Orioles. When you bid 48, then the Tigers offer 50. YOU OFFER 52!"
I was a bit surprised by all this but realized that the fans were reacting to Martinez's perceived value and not his actual value. Part of this is based on past performance, part is based on his perception in the media.
To highlight, Martinez's value, a look at the top offensive catchers, in terms of OPS, over the past 5 seasons:
There's a but of a dropoff after V-Mart and even bigger dropoffs after Napoli. Martinez has clearly been one of the best offensive catchers of recent years and is certainly worthy of the accolades and reputation he has.
However, the Orioles already have a catcher. Matt Wieters is still a promising young bat and is one of the better defensive catchers in the game today. Martinez was going to be primarily a first baseman for the Orioles (and probably a DH for the Tigers). And as a first baseman, his bat is not all that special.
Top offensive first baseman, in terms of OPS, over the past 5 seasons:
So the Tigers just gave $12.25 mil per season to a guy whose bat has been just slightly better than Adam LaRoche over the past 4 seasons. The Orioles could sign LaRoche for a third of that money, on a short deal and get similar value.
The Tigers just gave a 4-year deal to a very ordinary bat who will be 35 when they stop paying him. I suppose that's fine for them but the Orioles can't afford such an extravagance or risk. The team will be better without him.
"Tigers have reportedly outbid the Red Sox, White Sox and Orioles for Victor Martinez....Not good news for BAL."
"the orioles got outbid for a good player?? No wayyyy"
"Vintage Orioles. Offer just enough to make sure they get turned down so they can say the tried."
"Dammit, Orioles. When you bid 48, then the Tigers offer 50. YOU OFFER 52!"
I was a bit surprised by all this but realized that the fans were reacting to Martinez's perceived value and not his actual value. Part of this is based on past performance, part is based on his perception in the media.
To highlight, Martinez's value, a look at the top offensive catchers, in terms of OPS, over the past 5 seasons:
2006-2010 OPS G
1. Joe Mauer .906 670
2. Jorge Posada .879 569
3. Brian McCann .856 695
4. Victor Martinez .844 665
5. Mike Napoli .831 506
There's a but of a dropoff after V-Mart and even bigger dropoffs after Napoli. Martinez has clearly been one of the best offensive catchers of recent years and is certainly worthy of the accolades and reputation he has.
However, the Orioles already have a catcher. Matt Wieters is still a promising young bat and is one of the better defensive catchers in the game today. Martinez was going to be primarily a first baseman for the Orioles (and probably a DH for the Tigers). And as a first baseman, his bat is not all that special.
Top offensive first baseman, in terms of OPS, over the past 5 seasons:
2006-2010 OPS G
1. Albert Pujols 1.064 670
2. Joey Votto .958 456
3. Ryan Howard .947 768
4. Lance Berkman .930 722
5. Prince Fielder .922 797
.
.
.
13. Todd Helton .858 651
14. Victor Martinez .844 665
15. Adam Laroche .836 738
So the Tigers just gave $12.25 mil per season to a guy whose bat has been just slightly better than Adam LaRoche over the past 4 seasons. The Orioles could sign LaRoche for a third of that money, on a short deal and get similar value.
The Tigers just gave a 4-year deal to a very ordinary bat who will be 35 when they stop paying him. I suppose that's fine for them but the Orioles can't afford such an extravagance or risk. The team will be better without him.
Thứ Năm, 18 tháng 11, 2010
Guy Thinks Derek Jeter Should Be An Oriole and He Doesn't Work for The Onion
From The Toy Department at BaltimoreSun.com:
Orioles need to sign Derek Jeter
Hoo boy.
As baseball's Winter Meetings approach and the Orioles begin looking to upgrade their roster, they need to do something bold to build on the buzz created by hiring Buck Showalter.
They need to sign Derek Jeter.
Well, it would certainly create buzz. The Orioles created a lot of buzz by spending big bucks on their bullpen a few seasons back. It was bad buzz. That is the kind of buzz this will create.
The Orioles have many holes -- first base, third base, veteran starting pitching and the bullpen. But they also need a shortstop. More importantly, they need a leader.
They need Derek Jeter.
Ah, a leader! Why didn't you say so? Jeter would make an excellent bench coach. Hell, Showalter can start grooming him to take over the helm in a few years. Jeter's a smart guy, he'd be great manager material.
Sure, he's 36 and will turn 37 during the 2011 season. But he's durable, playing at least 150 games the past seven seasons. His batting average fell from .334 to .270 and his home run total dropped by eight to just 10. But he drove in 67 runs and won a Gold Glove. He's no Cesar Izturis defensively, but he's solid and his hitting numbers crush those of Izturis.
Wait a second...he suggesting that Baltimore signs him as a player? Really...wow, ok. Let's take a closer look at this then...
The author, Ron Fritz, has already made the greatest case against Derek Jeter, a case he tries to dismiss. His age. Jeter will be 37 in 2011 which doesn't bode well for his bat. In the history of baseball, only 3 shortstops 37 and older have posted a season OPS+ greater than 100. That's Honus Wagner, Luke Appling and Ozzie Smith. Looking at the top OPS+ seasons from a shortstop since 1980:
At best, you might get a season of Derek Jeter producing at league average at the plate. The rest of the time, if you're lucky, you get a graceful decline into mediocrity. But middle infielders do not age well and Jeter is already aged. His OPS+ of 90 in 2010 was a career low, which, in a round about way, the author references (but defends him with an RBI stat which, in the face of everything else, is immaterial).
Gold Glove? Here's my response: Gold Glove, scholdglove. Jeter hasn't been even an average defender in more than 10 years, let alone an elite one. Furthermore, you can make a very good argument that he is one of the worst regular shortstops in the league. If you want to refute that fact with Fielding Percentage, I suppose you can delude yourself about his glove but it won't change the reality.
The author is correct in stating that Jeter will outhit Cesar Izturis but that is like boasting that Adam Jones can smoke Matt Wieters in the 100-yard dash. It's hardly the measuring stick you want to use to demonstrate competence.
So you would be signing an aging player with a mediocre bat and a bad glove to man what is arguably the most important defensive position on the field. But Jeter would probably provide more value than Izturis in 2011. I'll hear him out.
Jeter also would bring five World Series titles, command respect in the locker room and show a young Orioles team how to play the game. The future Hall of Famer is 74 hits from 3,000. If there is one thing the Orioles do well, it's milestone ceremonies.
I don't believe for a second that the Steinbrenners will let Jeter remove those World Series trophies from Yankee Stadium and bring them down I-95. OK, he is beloved by the Yankees, so maybe one. But not all five.
He would command respect and he could demonstrate a professional manner of play to the youngsters. But couldn't he do that as a coach? Can't we explore that avenue again?
And then he suggests that the Orioles sign a player because the Orioles really know how to throw a party.
There is not one point in that paragraph that supports the argument that Jeter improves the Orioles on the field.
But hey, a one-year deal for $5 mil or so...probably worth Baltimore's time...
If the Yankees are willing to let Jeter test the free-agency market, then the Orioles should be there with an offer, somewhere in the four-year, $60 million range. Really, whatever it takes. Ask Cal Ripken Jr. to help recruit him. And then, because you have a shortstop who does more than hit singles, you can maybe re-sign Ty Wigginton to play third or first and still be able to spend decent money for another corner infielder.
*drops plate of hot wings*
Wow...4 years for $60 million? He would be the highest paid player on the team. That's more than I suggested that the Orioles throw at Adam Dunn, a player still in his prime. How does Fritz expect the Orioles to get their money's worth on that deal? They'll be paying a 40-year old shortstop $15 mil in 2014. By then, he certainly won't be hitting anything but singles, if he is hitting at all.
The lunacy of that suggested offer speaks for itself.
Not to mention...who says he'll play for that? He's balking at similar offers from the Yankees already. It would take something closer to $20 million to lure him from the Big Apple. It's a contract that would hamstring the Orioles for years to come. It would be worse than the Barry Zito deal, the Aaron Rowand deal, any of them. An albatross. A debacle.
It would be a PR disaster for the Yankees, it would hurt them on the field and maybe, just maybe, his signing would send a signal to other free agents that Baltimore is a great place to play.
$15 mil a season could run a hell of a disinformation campaign against the Yankees. And it wouldn't hurt the Orioles on the field like Jeter would for 648 games.
If the Miguel Tejada signing didn't improve opinions about Baltimore as a place to play, why would the Jeter signing do so? It'll look like a better destination when the play on the field is respectable.
Imagine Showalter and Ripken holding a No. 2 Orioles jersey with Jeter on the back as they announce the signing. They couldn't print tickets fast enough at Camden Yards.
*shudder*
Don't do that again.
The seats would be full for a couple games until they fans see Jeter field up close. Then they will leave again.
Yeah, I know he's a Yankee, and Orioles fans hate the Yankees. But they hate losing even more. What better way to end years of futility than signing one of the all-time great leaders and winners in the sport?
The fact that he is a Yankee is number 9 or 10 on my list of reasons not to give $60 million to Derek Jeter. Is Ron suggesting that Jeter alone is worth 16 wins? Really? Does he have access to those Angels in the Outfield? Can he truly make runs appear on the scoreboard with sheer will?
If you put Albert Pujols on this team, are you still certain the team could break even? I'm not.
Would he consider playing for the Orioles? It's time to find out.
A) He wouldn't consider that.
B) No, it not. It's really not.
The Orioles need to sign Derek Jeter.
I had to pinch myself to make sure it wasn't April Fool's Day or something. It's a completely absurd post. Is it a fan post? Who is this guy? My only conclusion is that this is a post designed to be controversial and attract attention. Which it did, if only from this small part of the Oriole blogosphere.
Orioles need to sign Derek Jeter
Hoo boy.
As baseball's Winter Meetings approach and the Orioles begin looking to upgrade their roster, they need to do something bold to build on the buzz created by hiring Buck Showalter.
They need to sign Derek Jeter.
Well, it would certainly create buzz. The Orioles created a lot of buzz by spending big bucks on their bullpen a few seasons back. It was bad buzz. That is the kind of buzz this will create.
The Orioles have many holes -- first base, third base, veteran starting pitching and the bullpen. But they also need a shortstop. More importantly, they need a leader.
They need Derek Jeter.
Ah, a leader! Why didn't you say so? Jeter would make an excellent bench coach. Hell, Showalter can start grooming him to take over the helm in a few years. Jeter's a smart guy, he'd be great manager material.
Sure, he's 36 and will turn 37 during the 2011 season. But he's durable, playing at least 150 games the past seven seasons. His batting average fell from .334 to .270 and his home run total dropped by eight to just 10. But he drove in 67 runs and won a Gold Glove. He's no Cesar Izturis defensively, but he's solid and his hitting numbers crush those of Izturis.
Wait a second...he suggesting that Baltimore signs him as a player? Really...wow, ok. Let's take a closer look at this then...
The author, Ron Fritz, has already made the greatest case against Derek Jeter, a case he tries to dismiss. His age. Jeter will be 37 in 2011 which doesn't bode well for his bat. In the history of baseball, only 3 shortstops 37 and older have posted a season OPS+ greater than 100. That's Honus Wagner, Luke Appling and Ozzie Smith. Looking at the top OPS+ seasons from a shortstop since 1980:
Year OPS+
O. Smith 1992 105
O. Vizquel 2004 99
O. Vizquel 2006 93
O. Smith 1993 88
O. Vizquel 2005 82
At best, you might get a season of Derek Jeter producing at league average at the plate. The rest of the time, if you're lucky, you get a graceful decline into mediocrity. But middle infielders do not age well and Jeter is already aged. His OPS+ of 90 in 2010 was a career low, which, in a round about way, the author references (but defends him with an RBI stat which, in the face of everything else, is immaterial).
Gold Glove? Here's my response: Gold Glove, scholdglove. Jeter hasn't been even an average defender in more than 10 years, let alone an elite one. Furthermore, you can make a very good argument that he is one of the worst regular shortstops in the league. If you want to refute that fact with Fielding Percentage, I suppose you can delude yourself about his glove but it won't change the reality.
The author is correct in stating that Jeter will outhit Cesar Izturis but that is like boasting that Adam Jones can smoke Matt Wieters in the 100-yard dash. It's hardly the measuring stick you want to use to demonstrate competence.
So you would be signing an aging player with a mediocre bat and a bad glove to man what is arguably the most important defensive position on the field. But Jeter would probably provide more value than Izturis in 2011. I'll hear him out.
Jeter also would bring five World Series titles, command respect in the locker room and show a young Orioles team how to play the game. The future Hall of Famer is 74 hits from 3,000. If there is one thing the Orioles do well, it's milestone ceremonies.
I don't believe for a second that the Steinbrenners will let Jeter remove those World Series trophies from Yankee Stadium and bring them down I-95. OK, he is beloved by the Yankees, so maybe one. But not all five.
He would command respect and he could demonstrate a professional manner of play to the youngsters. But couldn't he do that as a coach? Can't we explore that avenue again?
And then he suggests that the Orioles sign a player because the Orioles really know how to throw a party.
There is not one point in that paragraph that supports the argument that Jeter improves the Orioles on the field.
But hey, a one-year deal for $5 mil or so...probably worth Baltimore's time...
If the Yankees are willing to let Jeter test the free-agency market, then the Orioles should be there with an offer, somewhere in the four-year, $60 million range. Really, whatever it takes. Ask Cal Ripken Jr. to help recruit him. And then, because you have a shortstop who does more than hit singles, you can maybe re-sign Ty Wigginton to play third or first and still be able to spend decent money for another corner infielder.
*drops plate of hot wings*
Wow...4 years for $60 million? He would be the highest paid player on the team. That's more than I suggested that the Orioles throw at Adam Dunn, a player still in his prime. How does Fritz expect the Orioles to get their money's worth on that deal? They'll be paying a 40-year old shortstop $15 mil in 2014. By then, he certainly won't be hitting anything but singles, if he is hitting at all.
The lunacy of that suggested offer speaks for itself.
Not to mention...who says he'll play for that? He's balking at similar offers from the Yankees already. It would take something closer to $20 million to lure him from the Big Apple. It's a contract that would hamstring the Orioles for years to come. It would be worse than the Barry Zito deal, the Aaron Rowand deal, any of them. An albatross. A debacle.
It would be a PR disaster for the Yankees, it would hurt them on the field and maybe, just maybe, his signing would send a signal to other free agents that Baltimore is a great place to play.
$15 mil a season could run a hell of a disinformation campaign against the Yankees. And it wouldn't hurt the Orioles on the field like Jeter would for 648 games.
If the Miguel Tejada signing didn't improve opinions about Baltimore as a place to play, why would the Jeter signing do so? It'll look like a better destination when the play on the field is respectable.
Imagine Showalter and Ripken holding a No. 2 Orioles jersey with Jeter on the back as they announce the signing. They couldn't print tickets fast enough at Camden Yards.
*shudder*
Don't do that again.
The seats would be full for a couple games until they fans see Jeter field up close. Then they will leave again.
Yeah, I know he's a Yankee, and Orioles fans hate the Yankees. But they hate losing even more. What better way to end years of futility than signing one of the all-time great leaders and winners in the sport?
The fact that he is a Yankee is number 9 or 10 on my list of reasons not to give $60 million to Derek Jeter. Is Ron suggesting that Jeter alone is worth 16 wins? Really? Does he have access to those Angels in the Outfield? Can he truly make runs appear on the scoreboard with sheer will?
If you put Albert Pujols on this team, are you still certain the team could break even? I'm not.
Would he consider playing for the Orioles? It's time to find out.
A) He wouldn't consider that.
B) No, it not. It's really not.
The Orioles need to sign Derek Jeter.
I had to pinch myself to make sure it wasn't April Fool's Day or something. It's a completely absurd post. Is it a fan post? Who is this guy? My only conclusion is that this is a post designed to be controversial and attract attention. Which it did, if only from this small part of the Oriole blogosphere.
Thứ Năm, 4 tháng 11, 2010
The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 4
Here is the final (reasonable) roster I would be shooting for in 2011 if I ran the Orioles. I have left trades out of the equation because that can just become a silly guessing game from the outside. I have stuck to current players and free agents.
C - Wieters
1B - Dunn
2B - Roberts
3B - Bell
SS - Izturis
RF - Markakis
CF - Jones
LF - Pie
DH - Scott
OF - Reimold
Utility - Wigginton
Utility - Andino
Backup Catcher - Tatum
Thoughts: I would go hard after Dunn and plug him in at first base. Defense at 1B is overrated. I feel OK giving Bell the chance to get a full season under his belt in the majors. Wiggy could be brought back to spell Bell and Dunn at third and first respectively.
Shortstop was tough. A commenter pointed out that J.J. Hardy is not a free agent after all, even though he was listed that way on Cot's Contracts. The pickings are slim after that. Jhonny Peralta looks to resign with the Tigers, Omar Infante and Alex Gonzalez had their options picked up by the Braves. Giving the job to Robert Andino would be cheap but he could turn out to be the second coming of Luis Hernandez. A short, cheap contract for Izzy is probably the best bet via free agency.
Craig Tatum did a fine job as the backup catcher in 2010. Andino or a castoff veteran can fulfill the middle infield role.
SP - Matusz
SP - Guthrie
SP - Vasquez
SP - Arrieta
SP - Bergesen
RP - Tillman
RP - Vandenhurk
RP - Berken
RP - Hernandez
RP - Patton
RP - Johnson
RP - Gonzalez
I still think signing a veteran starter is good insurance. Javier Vasquez will come fairly cheap and short term.
Moving Chris Tillman to the pen will give him big league experience and he can work on his cutter. Tillman, Vandenhurk, Berken and Hernandez give the O's a dynamic bullpen as all of those guys could pitch 2+ innings. Patton and Gonzo provide the lefty arms.
The projected lineup and payroll:
Dunn, Adam 1B $15,000,000
Markakis, Nick rf $10,600,000
Roberts, Brian 2b $10,000,000
Scott, Luke dh-of $7,500,000
Gonzalez, Mike lhp $6,000,000
Vasquez, Javier P $5,500,000
Guthrie, Jeremy rhp-s $5,000,000
Wigginton, Ty 3b $2,500,000
Jones, Adam cf $2,300,000
Izturis, Cesar ss $1,500,000
Matusz, Brian lhp $1,400,000
Pie, Felix lf $1,000,000
Andino, Robert if $700,000
Johnson, Jim rhp $700,000
Bergesen, Brad rhp $500,000
Hernandez,D rhp $500,000
Bell, Josh 3b $500,000
Berken, Jason rhp $500,000
Patton, Troy lhp $500,000
Reimold, Nolan of $500,000
Tatum, Craig c $500,000
Tillman, Chris rhp $500,000
Wieters, Matt c $500,000
Vandenhurk, R P $500,000
Arrieta, Jake P $500,000
$75,200,000
That is an mildly improved team for just a touch over the 2010 Opening Day payroll. The Orioles can certainly afford to take on some payroll via trade (hopefully, a shortstop and/or starting pitcher) to improve the team further. Time to buy a bat, Andy.
Thứ Hai, 18 tháng 10, 2010
The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 1
As we head into the offseason, it's time to look at the projected Oriole payroll for 2011 and see where money could and should be spent. All salary data taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts. First, the money owed to players already under contract for next season.
One more year on the Mike Gonzalez deal. If my estimated abritration figures are anywhere close, Gonazalez will be at least the 4th highest paid Baltimore player in 2011.
Hendrickson, apparently, can be retained for a $200,000 option. If that is true, then the Orioles will pick up that option.
Here's the guys on the team that could be retained for something just above or at the league minimum. I rounded all salaries up to $500,000.
Finally, to fill out the roster, here are the arbitration eligible players with educated guesses on what each player will earn if they are offered arbitration.
Of the six, only Albers is a good bet to not be tendered arbitration.
That's a total of $52.9 million dollars committed to fill out the roster for 2011, more than $20 million less than the 2010 Opening Day payroll.
Again, Andy MacPhail has avoided the long contracts and leaves himself a lot of payroll flexibility for 2011. But will they spend it? Where could they spend it? More on that tomorrow.
2011 Salary (in millions)
Roberts $10.0
Markakis $10.6
Gonzalez $6.0
Matusz $1.4
Hendrickson $0.2
Atkins $0.5
One more year on the Mike Gonzalez deal. If my estimated abritration figures are anywhere close, Gonazalez will be at least the 4th highest paid Baltimore player in 2011.
Hendrickson, apparently, can be retained for a $200,000 option. If that is true, then the Orioles will pick up that option.
Here's the guys on the team that could be retained for something just above or at the league minimum. I rounded all salaries up to $500,000.
2011 Salary (in millions)
Bergesen $0.5
Tillman $0.5
Fox $0.5
Hernandez $0.5
Berken $0.5
Arrieta $0.5
Bell $0.5
Reimold $0.5
Andino $0.5
Wieters $0.5
Tatum $0.5
Patton $0.5
Simon $0.5
Mickolio $0.5
Finally, to fill out the roster, here are the arbitration eligible players with educated guesses on what each player will earn if they are offered arbitration.
2011 Salary (in millions)
Guthrie $5.0
Albers $0.7
Scott $7.5
Jones $2.3
Johnson $0.7
Pie $1.0
Of the six, only Albers is a good bet to not be tendered arbitration.
That's a total of $52.9 million dollars committed to fill out the roster for 2011, more than $20 million less than the 2010 Opening Day payroll.
Again, Andy MacPhail has avoided the long contracts and leaves himself a lot of payroll flexibility for 2011. But will they spend it? Where could they spend it? More on that tomorrow.
Thứ Ba, 5 tháng 1, 2010
The Oriole Windfall for 2011?
Late last season, I took a look at all the money that was coming off the books before the 2010 season. From the looks of it, the Orioles should be in a similar situation before 2011. In a season that will be much more about developing youngsters than free agent contributions, it is interesting to me how things will cascade going forward. Here's a quick breakdown of the salaries committed to by Baltimore for 2010. Some contracts and arbitration numbers are estimated. Figures are in millions. All current and future committed salary figures are from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Millwood, Kevin $9
Roberts, Brian $10
Markakis, Nick $7.1
Gonzalez, Mike $6
Uehara, Koji $5
Atkins, Garrett $4.5
Wigginton, Ty $3.5
Izturis, Cesar $2.6
Scott, Luke $4
Matusz, Brian $.868
Meredith, Cla $1.25
Albers, Matt $.68
Guthrie, Jeremy $2.5
Jones, Adam $.5
Johnson, Jim $.45
Pie, Felix $.45
Andino, Robert $.45
Aubrey, Michael $.45
Bergesen, Brad $.45
Mark Hendrickson $1.5
Hernandez, David $.45
Mickolio, Kam $.45
Reimold, Nolan $.45
Tillman, Chris $.4
Wieters, Matt $.5
Moeller, Chad $.9
Mora, Melvin $1
TOTAL $65,398,000
If the Orioles do nothing else this offseason, they will have basically the same payroll as they did last season. At this point, I would rather let Michael Aubrey or Scott Moore fill out the last corner infield spot than the available free agents. Matt Holliday is not coming here. Maybe they add a risky pitcher like Sheets or Bedard to a 1-year deal. The O's payroll should be right around $70 million.
Now, the expiring deals for 2011 in millions:
Kevin Millwood $9
Melvin Mora $1
Koji Uehara $5
G. Atkins $4.5
T. Wigginton $3.5
C. Izturis $2.6
That is $25.6 million in expiring contracts. That brings the payroll down to about $40 million in guaranteed contracts and "minimum" salary guys. Throw in increases for arbitration, maybe an extension for Adam Jones and you get something closer to $50 million. Tops.
Atkins and Wigginton can be replaced by Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder. You would have to fill shortstop and maybe a spot int he rotation through free agency. The point is, Andy MacPhail has given this team a ton of flexibility going into 2011. How? Only two-year deals maximum for free agents and obtaining young, cheap talent through drafts trades and then retaining them with fairly reasonable deals.
The lineup could look like this:
1B Brandon Snyder
2B Brian Roberts
SS Justin Turner/Robert Andino/FA Shortstop
3B Josh Bell
C Matt Wieters
LF Felix Pie\Nolan Reimold\Luke Scott
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH Nolan Reimold\Luke Scott
BN Justin Turner
BN Random Backup
SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Brian Matusz
SP Chris Tillman
SP Brad Bergesen
SP Jake Arietta
RP Mike Gonzalez
RP Jim Johnson
RP Matt Albers
RP Kam Mickolio
RP David Hernandez
RP Brandon Erbe
RP Cla Meredith
That payroll could look something like this (I've included an arbitration raise for Guthrie and Scott and the beginning of an extension for Adam Jones):
Roberts, Brian $10
Markakis, Nick $10.6
Gonzalez, Mike $6
Scott, Luke $6.00
Matusz, Brian $0.868
Meredith, Cla $1.75
Albers, Matt 0.8
Guthrie, Jeremy $3.00
Jones, Adam $10.00
Johnson, Jim 0.8
Pie, Felix $1.00
Andino, Robert 0.8
Snyder, Brandon 0.45
Bergesen, Brad 0.5
Bell, Josh 0.45
Hernandez, David 0.45
Mickolio, Kam 0.45
Reimold, Nolan 0.5
Tillman, Chris 0.5
Arrieta, Jake 0.5
Erbe, Brandon 0.5
Wieters, Matt 0.5
Moeller, Chad 0.8
TOTAL $57.218
That's really cheap. It allows for the signing of veteran starting pitcher if one of the young guys flames out or a big corner infield bat if Bell or Snyder can't cut it. With lots of room to spare.
I think 2011 is the year that MacPhail is targeting. He'll have a better idea where his holes are and have plenty of cash to address them. This offseason, his biggest task is not to screw it up with a long contract to a middling free agent. (See Huff, Aubrey or Walker, Jamie)
He has done that. And it will pay dividends.
Millwood, Kevin $9
Roberts, Brian $10
Markakis, Nick $7.1
Gonzalez, Mike $6
Uehara, Koji $5
Atkins, Garrett $4.5
Wigginton, Ty $3.5
Izturis, Cesar $2.6
Scott, Luke $4
Matusz, Brian $.868
Meredith, Cla $1.25
Albers, Matt $.68
Guthrie, Jeremy $2.5
Jones, Adam $.5
Johnson, Jim $.45
Pie, Felix $.45
Andino, Robert $.45
Aubrey, Michael $.45
Bergesen, Brad $.45
Mark Hendrickson $1.5
Hernandez, David $.45
Mickolio, Kam $.45
Reimold, Nolan $.45
Tillman, Chris $.4
Wieters, Matt $.5
Moeller, Chad $.9
Mora, Melvin $1
TOTAL $65,398,000
If the Orioles do nothing else this offseason, they will have basically the same payroll as they did last season. At this point, I would rather let Michael Aubrey or Scott Moore fill out the last corner infield spot than the available free agents. Matt Holliday is not coming here. Maybe they add a risky pitcher like Sheets or Bedard to a 1-year deal. The O's payroll should be right around $70 million.
Now, the expiring deals for 2011 in millions:
Kevin Millwood $9
Melvin Mora $1
Koji Uehara $5
G. Atkins $4.5
T. Wigginton $3.5
C. Izturis $2.6
That is $25.6 million in expiring contracts. That brings the payroll down to about $40 million in guaranteed contracts and "minimum" salary guys. Throw in increases for arbitration, maybe an extension for Adam Jones and you get something closer to $50 million. Tops.
Atkins and Wigginton can be replaced by Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder. You would have to fill shortstop and maybe a spot int he rotation through free agency. The point is, Andy MacPhail has given this team a ton of flexibility going into 2011. How? Only two-year deals maximum for free agents and obtaining young, cheap talent through drafts trades and then retaining them with fairly reasonable deals.
The lineup could look like this:
1B Brandon Snyder
2B Brian Roberts
SS Justin Turner/Robert Andino/FA Shortstop
3B Josh Bell
C Matt Wieters
LF Felix Pie\Nolan Reimold\Luke Scott
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH Nolan Reimold\Luke Scott
BN Justin Turner
BN Random Backup
SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Brian Matusz
SP Chris Tillman
SP Brad Bergesen
SP Jake Arietta
RP Mike Gonzalez
RP Jim Johnson
RP Matt Albers
RP Kam Mickolio
RP David Hernandez
RP Brandon Erbe
RP Cla Meredith
That payroll could look something like this (I've included an arbitration raise for Guthrie and Scott and the beginning of an extension for Adam Jones):
Roberts, Brian $10
Markakis, Nick $10.6
Gonzalez, Mike $6
Scott, Luke $6.00
Matusz, Brian $0.868
Meredith, Cla $1.75
Albers, Matt 0.8
Guthrie, Jeremy $3.00
Jones, Adam $10.00
Johnson, Jim 0.8
Pie, Felix $1.00
Andino, Robert 0.8
Snyder, Brandon 0.45
Bergesen, Brad 0.5
Bell, Josh 0.45
Hernandez, David 0.45
Mickolio, Kam 0.45
Reimold, Nolan 0.5
Tillman, Chris 0.5
Arrieta, Jake 0.5
Erbe, Brandon 0.5
Wieters, Matt 0.5
Moeller, Chad 0.8
TOTAL $57.218
That's really cheap. It allows for the signing of veteran starting pitcher if one of the young guys flames out or a big corner infield bat if Bell or Snyder can't cut it. With lots of room to spare.
I think 2011 is the year that MacPhail is targeting. He'll have a better idea where his holes are and have plenty of cash to address them. This offseason, his biggest task is not to screw it up with a long contract to a middling free agent. (See Huff, Aubrey or Walker, Jamie)
He has done that. And it will pay dividends.
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