The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 1

As we head into the offseason, it's time to look at the projected Oriole payroll for 2011 and see where money could and should be spent. All salary data taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts. First, the money owed to players already under contract for next season.

2011 Salary (in millions)
Roberts                        $10.0
Markakis                       $10.6
Gonzalez                       $6.0
Matusz                         $1.4
Hendrickson                    $0.2
Atkins                         $0.5

One more year on the Mike Gonzalez deal. If my estimated abritration figures are anywhere close, Gonazalez will be at least the 4th highest paid Baltimore player in 2011.

Hendrickson, apparently, can be retained for a $200,000 option. If that is true, then the Orioles will pick up that option.

Here's the guys on the team that could be retained for something just above or at the league minimum. I rounded all salaries up to $500,000.

2011 Salary (in millions)
Bergesen                       $0.5
Tillman                        $0.5
Fox                            $0.5
Hernandez                      $0.5
Berken                         $0.5
Arrieta                        $0.5
Bell                           $0.5
Reimold                        $0.5
Andino                         $0.5
Wieters                        $0.5
Tatum                          $0.5
Patton                         $0.5
Simon                          $0.5
Mickolio                       $0.5

Finally, to fill out the roster, here are the arbitration eligible players with educated guesses on what each player will earn if they are offered arbitration.

2011 Salary (in millions)
Guthrie                       $5.0
Albers                        $0.7
Scott                         $7.5
Jones                         $2.3
Johnson                       $0.7
Pie                           $1.0

Of the six, only Albers is a good bet to not be tendered arbitration.

That's a total of $52.9 million dollars committed to fill out the roster for 2011, more than $20 million less than the 2010 Opening Day payroll.

Again, Andy MacPhail has avoided the long contracts and leaves himself a lot of payroll flexibility for 2011. But will they spend it? Where could they spend it? More on that tomorrow.

The Roster-Go-Round Revisited

Lots of changes on the active roster in the past week and a half. Time to step back and take a closer look.

Justin Turner DFA'd, Claimed by the Mets

Turner was removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Scott Moore and is no longer an Oriole as the Mets claimed him off waivers. I liked Turner a lot. He was probably never going to be a regular but I thought he could have been a solid utility player in a year or two, kind of a Mike Fontenot type. (He really couldn't be any worse than the 2010 version of Julio Lugo...) He still had value but not a ton of it and he's probably more of an NL player anyhow. Good luck to Red.

Scott Moore Recalled from Norfolk

I like Moore a lot and I wish Dave Trembley would find a way to get him in the lineup on a regular basis. Moore is patient at the plate, has some pop in the bat and can play all over the infield (with varying results). Only protecting Garrett Atkins' ego will keep him on the bench at this point. If you're going to bat Lugo 2nd, there's no reason not to put Moore there every now and then.

Koji Uehara Placed on 15-Day DL

Oh, Koji. Back on the DL yet again. Seemingly, he'll never be healthy but Uehara wasn't really a bad signing. Why? According to FanGraphs, Koji has been so good when he's actually been on the field that he has provided $7.9 million in value in terms of WAR over the past two seasons. The Orioles are paying him $10 million so he still has a shot at fully living up to the contract if he gets back on the field. He showed he was able to compete in the American League so he was definitely worth a shot.

Alfredo Simon Placed on 15-day DL

Simon shows you how low the bar is to close in the majors. Don't let his 2.92 ERA fool you, he is walking more than 5 per 9 innings while only striking out 7 per 9. His FIP is 4.49 (which is an improvement; he hasn't posted a FIP below 5.00 since 2005) but he's been adequate "closing out" games. The hamstring should not keep him out long.

Frank Mata Recalled from Norfolk

Mata is having a good season in AAA and it's legit. His FIP in Norfolk is 3.15. Mata seems like the kind of guy who will get lit up in Baltimore though. He needs to miss more bats and I don't think he will strike out major leaguers at a 6 K/9 rate like he has in AAA. We shall see.

Mike Gonzalez Transferred to 60-day DL

I don't think Gonzalez was going to return before mid-June anyway but he's really hurt. I liked the signing (and maybe still do) but missing half a season is going to make it hard for the O's to get a good return on the investment.

Alberto Castillo Recalled from Norfolk

He's baa-aaack. Can he keep the ball in the park? If he can, the rest of his peripherals look great. If he can't....well, the Orioles don't seem to take him very seriously anyway and he'll be back to Norfolk.

Mike Gonzalez Rocks

...no, really.

One thing I forgot to mention about Gonzalez last night is his unusual rocking motions before his windup:

Baltimore Orioles Sign RP Mike Gonzalez to be Team's Closer

In a move that is a head-scratcher, the Baltimore Orioles have signed Braves RP Mike Gonzalez to a 2-year, $12 million deal.

Why would the Orioles sign an expensive veteran reliever to close in 2010? If the team was a contender, I could see it. But this team is not a contender and an expensive closer is a luxury that losing teams cannot afford. I am a little perplexed by the deal.

Living in Atlanta for the last few years, I've seen plenty of Mike Gonzalez. The good news is that he's really, really good. He's a lefty. His stuff is nasty. He's basically a fastball-slider pitcher and his fastball can touch the mid-90's (although low 90's seems to be where it sits). He's a flyball pitcher but a lot of those balls are hit weakly and he induces a lot of popups. He also strikes out a ton of guys, striking out 10.6 per 9 over the last three seasons. Last year, he seemed to be completely healthy after his Tommy John surgery in 2007 and the Braves deployed him in high leverage situations last season over the course of 80 games.(hopefully, the O's don't ride him quite so hard...). He's a bad man on the mound.

The bad news...he's a Type A free agent so the Orioles will surrender their 2nd round pick in 2010 (43rd pick overall). He will walk batters regularly. He tends to give up the inopportune home run. He's a pitcher coming from the National League to the American League. He's going to make $6 million and year (and maybe more) and he's clearly not worth that much money, especially for a team that will probably lose in 2010. Even FanGraphs.com, who (in my opinion) overvalues player performance, only values Gonzalez's 2009 at $4.1 million.

Make no mistake, Gonzalez is a great relief pitcher and he will improve the bullpen. But for $6 million per? I am guessing that Andy MacPhail will be listening to offers at the next two trading deadlines.