Beating a Dead Horse Named Victor

A few things I read in a Britt Ghiroli post yesterday have me all worked up about Victor Martinez again. (Bear with me, there's a point here...)


Orioles fans are upset about losing Martinez, and understandably so. He would have been a nice addition...


If losing Martinez showed anything, it is that the Orioles are going to struggle to sign any big-name free agents. To think they are going to solve their holes in the infield and batting lineup without making a trade --likely costing them a young arm or two -- is naive.
They aren't getting away from MacPhail's mantra of stockpiling young arms. But if they are going to keep up with the "buy the bats" approach, it will take more than opening their wallets for the Konerko's and Pena's to field a competitive team next spring. It will probably take a trade.... 


I'm not going to pick on Ghiroli here, her view is reflected by every local mainstream writer on the Oriole beat. There are a few truths that just seem to be givens concerning the Orioles' pursuit of Victor Martinez:


1. Martinez would have been a good fit for Baltimore.
2. Not only was offering Martinez $48 million for 4 years the correct thing to do, the Orioles probably should have offered more.
3. Martinez didn't want to come here because Baltimore is not an attractive destination for free agents and thus:
4. The Orioles must pay through the nose to attract even moderately attractive talent.


I won't argue the first point. Martinez playing first base over the next three or four seasons would have been just fine. The problem comes with the price and length of contract the Orioles offered to try to get him.


To address the second assumption, I will refer you back to this post and restate that while Martinez' bat is a superior one for a catcher, it is middling compared to other first basemen in the league. It ranks somewhere above Adam LaRoche and under Todd Helton over the past four seasons. Martinez was not going to catch much, if at all, in Baltimore. (Apparently, he won't be catching much in Detroit either...)


That greatly reduces his value. Period. Think about it this way: Is anybody clamoring to lock up Luke Scott to a four year deal for $12 mil per season? No. Nor should they. But over the past three seasons, Scott has posted an OPS over 20 points higher than Martinez (and has played about 50 more games over that stretch too). But Martinez is the middle-of-the-order bat Baltimore needs? Thinks about that. Not even the hitter that Luke Scott is. Closer to Adam LaRoche in production. Is this the big bat Andy MacPhail promised? (And I'm not even factoring in the 2nd Round pick the Orioles would have lost in the 2011 draft...)


Remember when Miguel Tejada was signed last offseason and many in the media (and Dave Trembley himself) penciled him in as the cleanup hitter? Seems silly now, right? It was because they remembered Tejada as he was in 2006, not as he was in 2009. Three years of declining power didn't seem to be a signal to anybody that this was a terrible idea. Fans and media alike are remembering Martinez' value as a catcher, not the value he will provide going forward as, primarily, a first baseman or a DH.


You know what other scenario it reminds me of? Javy Lopez. I'm still of the mind that the Orioles dodged a bullet when Martinez picked Detroit.


Speaking of jilting Baltimore, why is it that Boston is not being maligned? Were they not also rejected? Is anybody assuming that Boston is an unattractive destination? That their money is no good to free agents? Of course not. Baltimore is more attractive as a destination than it has been in years. Martinez didn't give Boston the chance to up their offer either. He liked the Tigers' money and their general situation. That doesn't make other destinations unattractive, not necessarily. That's just Baltimore's inferiority complex talking.


But even if that were true, why should Baltimore strap itself down to a bad, multi-year contract just to land somebody? That doesn't work, folks. Javy Lopez. Miguel Tejada. Albert Belle. Spending money for money's sake, just to land a player, doesn't solve the losing. It's counterproductive. If the right deal isn't there, you have to let it go. You can't expect the club to panic. You should hope for just the opposite. You also can't throw a big money, multi-year deal at a middle-aged, middling bat just to "do something". But that's exactly what MacPhail did. And he acts like this was a big thrust of his offseason plans.


So the fans and mainstream media shouldn't be asking why the Orioles couldn't land Victor Martinez. The real story, the real question that should be asked is this: Why were they pursuing him so hard in the first place?

No Arbitration for Uehara and Troubling Warehouse Strategies

The Orioles have declined to offer arbitration to RP Koji Uehara and SP Kevin Millwood.

Millwood was a no-brainer; he may have accepted. Uehara was not though. There is a market for Uehara's services this offseason, mostly due to performance as a closer over the last three months of the season. Uehara showed the ability to close and that skill is still overvalued in the marketplace.

There was a good chance that Uehara would refuse and sign elsewhere, netting the Orioles a supplemental draft pick after the first round in the 2011 amateur draft. If he accepted, I can't imagine he would receive more than $3 million in arbitration. That would allow the Orioles to either retain his services or trade him to a team that wanted his services more. (A similar situation happened with the Braves and Rafael Soriano last offseason..the Braves were able to move him when his arbitration number didn't match their budget.) As it is, the Orioles now receive nothing.

Maybe Andy MacPhail was afraid he would get something closer to his $5 million salary he has earned the last two seasons and he would probably know more about this than I would but it seems a strange decision to lose Uehara for nothing when you could have taken the chance to get something for Uehara's departure.

Speaking of MacPhail, according to Jeff Zrebiec, he was very disappointed that the team missed out on Victor Martinez. I really hope MacPhail is working the PR angle here because if overpaying Martinez was their grand plan for the offseason, I'm worried about the team's philosophy. As I stated yesterday, Martinez was not going to be the primary catcher for Baltimore and while his bat is elite for a catcher, it's rather ordinary for a first baseman. He hasn't even really caught that much over the past three seasons, only 246 games over that span. The chances of him remaining a team's primary catcher anywhere over a 4-year deal are slim.

If the Orioles were putting all their eggs in the Victor Martinez basket, I'm worried about their sanity.

Why Baltimore is Better Off Without V-Mart

Reportedly, Victor Martinez will leave the Red Sox and sign with the Tigers for 4 years and $50 million. Since the news broke, Twitter has been all, uh, atwitter with Orioles fans lamenting the club for not being more aggressive in going after V-Mart. A sampling:

"Tigers have reportedly outbid the Red Sox, White Sox and Orioles for Victor Martinez....Not good news for BAL."


"the orioles got outbid for a good player?? No wayyyy"


"Vintage Orioles. Offer just enough to make sure they get turned down so they can say the tried."


"Dammit, Orioles. When you bid 48, then the Tigers offer 50. YOU OFFER 52!"

I was a bit surprised by all this but realized that the fans were reacting to Martinez's perceived value and not his actual value. Part of this is based on past performance, part is based on his perception in the media.

To highlight, Martinez's value, a look at the top offensive catchers, in terms of OPS, over the past 5 seasons:

2006-2010              OPS        G        
1. Joe Mauer             .906       670
2. Jorge Posada          .879       569
3. Brian McCann          .856       695
4. Victor Martinez       .844       665
5. Mike Napoli           .831       506

There's a but of a dropoff after V-Mart and even bigger dropoffs after Napoli. Martinez has clearly been one of the best offensive catchers of recent years and is certainly worthy of the accolades and reputation he has.

However, the Orioles already have a catcher. Matt Wieters is still a promising young bat and is one of the better defensive catchers in the game today. Martinez was going to be primarily a first baseman for the Orioles (and probably a DH for the Tigers). And as a first baseman, his bat is not all that special.

Top offensive first baseman, in terms of OPS, over the past 5 seasons:

2006-2010              OPS        G        
1. Albert Pujols        1.064       670
2. Joey Votto            .958       456
3. Ryan Howard           .947       768
4. Lance Berkman         .930       722
5. Prince Fielder        .922       797
.
.
.
13. Todd Helton       .858       651
14. Victor Martinez   .844       665
15. Adam Laroche      .836       738

So the Tigers just gave $12.25 mil per season to a guy whose bat has been just slightly better than Adam LaRoche over the past 4 seasons. The Orioles could sign LaRoche for a third of that money, on a short deal and get similar value.

The Tigers just gave a 4-year deal to a very ordinary bat who will be 35 when they stop paying him. I suppose that's fine for them but the Orioles can't afford such an extravagance or risk. The team will be better without him.