Nolan Reimold To The Rescue?

From the Oriole Insider blog on BaltimoreSun.com:

Triple-A Norfolk outfielder Nolan Reimold went 4-for-5 with a double, homer, two RBIs and a stolen base against Louisville last night. In seven August games with the Tides, Reimold is batting .400 with two homers, seven RBIs, three walks and two steals. Overall, he’s batting .238 with 10 homers, 32 RBIs and six stolen bases in 73 games.

It’s obviously been a long and trying year for Reimold, who was supposed to be the everyday left fielder in Baltimore. Instead, he hit .205 in 29 games and has been in the minor leagues since May 12. Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said there has been some discussions about promoting Reimold, but nothing is imminent at this point.

I don't believe that Reimold was healthy to start this season and that certainly didn't help things. The silver lining to his struggles and subsequent demotion? Reimold could compete for the first base job in 2011.

Reimold has played 38 of his 73 games in Norfolk at first base. And his hot August is no fluke. Even though he only posted a .235/.361/.382 line in July his BABIP was only .238 when his line drive percentage supports a BABIP in the .290's. In other words, Reimold was unlucky in July and has been hitting the ball a lot better since the beginning of July. (He has also walked 21 times since July 1st against just 16 strikeouts.)

Reimold should get a September callup but with Felix Pie, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in the outfield, there is no room for Reimold in the outfield. A 1B/DH split with Luke Scott makes some sense and adds a decent right handed power bat the the Orioles lineup needs.

5 Biggest Disappointments for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles

The problems with the Orioles in 2010 have been multifold. But some of the season's disappointments have been greater than the others and contributed more to this disappointing season than the others. After some examination, here are the depressing top 5.

5.  Brian Roberts' Injury

Although many of us bloggers raised red flags when the Orioles signed Brian Roberts to a 4-year, $40 million extension last season (some of us, before the fact), I don't think any of us expected age and/or injury to start catching up to Roberts so fast.

Roberts being sidelined early in the season with a variety of back problems hobbled the Orioles' struggling offense even more as a brutal rotation of leadoff hitters tried desperately to fill in. Oriole leadoff hitters have combines for a .302 OBP and .645 OPS.

Roberts could return as early as this weekend but fans have to wonder about his durability and effectiveness as he plays through the 3.5 years left on his contract.


4. Adam Jones' Glove

Adam Jones has had his struggles at the plate this season but has come around of late and, I feel, he'll be just fine in the long run at the plate. Despite his Gold Glove last season, Jones is not showing a great glove in center. He plays shallow and repeatedly let's balls go over his head. He takes bad routes on balls. He sometimes misplays the routine.

Jones, in terms of UZR, is the 3rd worst fielding centerfielder in baseball. UZR does not always tell the whole story, especially for partial seasons, but last season he has the third worst UZR/150 among regular centerfielders as well.

The most frustrating thing about this is that Jones has all the tools: great speed, great leaping ability, an arm that rivals that of Nick Markakis. But he just hasn't put it together in the field this season.


3. Nolan Reimold

After a breakout year in which he forced himself onto the Baltimore roster way ahead of schedule, Nolan Reimold fell off a cliff. Hitting .279/.365/.466 over 104 games during his rookie campaign, Reimold attracted serious Rookie of the Year consideration before having to have surgery on his Achilles tendon toward the end of the season.

I don't believe that Reimold was completely healthy to start the season as he hit an anemic .205/.302/.337 with Baltimore before a May 12th demotion. But being back in Norfolk has not helped matters as he has only .212/.303/.335 since his return and shows no sign of coming around. Reimold has been playing some first base for the Tides and, perhaps, if he is fully healthy in 2011, he could still fulfill some of that promise while filling a need for Baltimore. But that looks like a real longshot at this point.


2. Brian Matusz

Continuing the theme of disappointing young talent, Brian Matusz has yet to become the staff ace that he was predicted to be when he was promoted to Baltimore late last season. Sure, he was a bit rushed to the majors and, sure, I expected him to struggle a bit at the beginning of the season. But as the most polished member of "the Calvary", I thought Matusz would have started showing some life by now. He hasn't.

Matusz's changeup, his best pitch, gets hit pretty hard. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, neither to a great degree but they aren't moving in the right direction. Granted, his FIP and xFIP are significantly better than his 5.21 ERA. But while Tillman, Arrieta and Bergesen were kind of expected to scuffle through this season, Matusz was expected to be a respectable pitcher by now. He's not and he needs help to get there.


1. Matt Wieters

The most highly touted catching prospect since Joe Mauer, one of the most praised minor league bats of all time, one of the few prospects that basically had no criticism from any scout or analyst about his offensive game, Matt Wieters has been a anemic bat in the Oriole lineup. After a torrid September, many were predicting a breakout season for Wieters (including me). Predictions called for average, power and great control of the strike zone. It hasn't happened.

Only Jason Kendall, Yadier Molina and Russell Martin have lower ISO's among catchers. Ditto for average. Only A.J. Pierzynski has a lower OBP.

Were all the scouts wrong? I don't think so (or at least, I hope not). But Wieters' struggles are the latest indictment of Terry Crowley's work with young hitters. Jones hasn't advanced much. Wieters has struggled. Reimold floundered. It seems that hitters develop in spite of Crowley rather than because of him.

Wieters needs help to get his head back on straight. A new coaching staff could do wonders for that.

Can He Play First?

No, not Nolan Reimold. I think Reimold can play first but when you're hitting .105 in AAA it doesn't matter much where your glove plays.

I mean Pat Burrel who was cast off from the Rays earlier this week. You scoff? Burrell's hitting line compared to Oriole first baseman this season:

          Slash Line
Burrell  .202/.292/.333

Atkins   .221/.261/.283
Hughes   .213/.275/.255

Overall, Oriole first basemen have combined to OPS .520 this season. Burrell's OPS of .625 would (sadly) be a big improvement.

If you can get Burrell for the league minimum, I say you do it. Burrell started for the Phillies at first for most of his rookie season. I'll bet he can field as well as Atkins can.

Oh, and Atkins needs to be released but I'll write more about that later...

Nolan Reimold Sent to Norfolk, Corey Patterson Recalled

(Sorry I've been away from the blog but I'm traveling for work and keeping long hours this week...back to regularly scheduled blogging next week.)

In a way, this is what you have to love about baseball. There's always a surprise. Nobody would've predicted this Oriole transaction back on April 6th.

Nolan Reimold, last season's rookie phenom, was sent back to AAA today after starting the season with a .205/.302/.337 line over 29 games. This represents a failure for the organization as they were too aggressive (or let Reimold be too aggressive) in bringing Nolan back from Achilles tendon surgery in the offseason. Reimold never looked quite right in Spring Training and instead of DHing him exclusively early in the season, they put him in the field far too often when it was apparent he wasn't ready. They should have DHed him exclusively in Spring Training, let him start the season on the 15-day DL, kept him in Sarasota for more rehab and let him come back in late April. Instead, he failed to recover in an adequate manner and is now being sent back to Norfolk. I guess you could call this Monday morning quaterbacking but I expressed this concern in the offseason.

All that said, at this point Reimold should have stayed. He's not hitting for much power and not hitting the ball very hard at this point but he was hitting no worse than Luke Scott and the odds were that he was going to turn it around eventually. The O's cast the die with Reimold, now they should have stuck with him.

Compounding the move is the recall of Corey Patterson. Patterson was (and is) a superior defender but is an offensive black hole. But because he is fast, Dave Trembley will do stupid things like bat him leadoff. Like he did tonight. The first night Patterson was up with the big club.

The bright side? I don't think Reimold will be gone for long. If nothing else, he will force his way back to Baltimore in June and bump Lou Montanez back to AAA. It can't come a moment too soon.

Felix Pie May Be Out for 3 Months

The only bright side to this is the outfield depth the O's have...

Roch Kubatko is reporting that Felix Pie has a back injury and could miss up to three months:

Pie went on the disabled list April 16 with an injury classified as a strained muscle in his upper back, but further examination today revealed a more serious problem.

There's been no talk of surgery, and Pie is debating whether to stay here or report to Sarasota to rehab after an extended period of rest.

President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail confirmed the injury a few minutes ago and compared it to the one suffered by reliever Jim Miller a few years ago.

"Left alone, I'm told - and they have significant medical information on this - the thing will heal itself as quickly or more quickly than if you did something on a surgical basis," MacPhail said. "But it's going to take some time to go through the process that it has to go through."

Not great news given that Pie looked to be a much improved player at the plate in 2010 and certainly looked better in the field than he did at the beginning of 2009.

I suppose the bright side is that Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott will be playing nearly every day.

Lou Montanez, your time has come. You wanted an opportunity and this is it.

Worried About Reimold

And that is a misleading title. I'm not worried about Reimold over the course of the whole 2010 season. But I am concerned about how ready he'll be to play on Opening Day.

Reimold had surgery on his left Achilles tendon in September and I have been skeptical about how much he might be able to play the field this April. So far:

• Reimold has only appeared in 5 games this spring (6 counting tonight)
• He has appeared in most of those games as a DH
• He has not played the field since last Sunday
• He is 0-15 with no walks and three strikeouts (yeah, it's spring but Nolan didn't go 0-15 all last season)
• He has reportedly been gimpy and seen limping several times this spring

Opening Day is 2.5 weeks away. I don't see a quantum leap happening for Reimold by then. He's going to have to DH when April rolls around and even then maybe not everyday. I don't think it's any coincidence that Luke Scott has been getting some reps at first base.

And if he can't play everyday, he may start the season on the DL.

It's not a gamechanger for the season but if you think Reimold is going to be 100% ready on April 5th, you're deluding yourself. He will not be.

5 Things To Watch - Spring Training 2010

It's that time again! 8 days until the first Spring Training workouts commence. Unlike previous years, many of the roster spots will be spoken for going into Sarasota but there will still be some things to look for, many of them holdover topics from previous years

1.  Chris Tillman - The rotation is pretty much set but comments from Dave Trembley and Tillman's struggles during his debut last season have left the door open. He's only 22 and if he doesn't look more like the Norfolk version of Tillman in Spring Training, he could find himself back in AAA to start the season. There's also an outside chance that David Hernandez figures out how to strike guys out in Sarasota and edges Tillman out. We know that Trembley likes to go with the hot hand in spring. See Alfredo Simon last season.

2.  The Bench - It's hard to believe that Ty Wigginton breaks camp with the team given his salary and his skill set. This opens the door for Michael Aubrey, Rhyne Hughes or Scott Moore (I have not given up on Moore yet...). And while Robert Andino showed a good glove last season, his bat makes Cesar Izturis look like Brian Roberts. Justin Turner in particular could earn a utility infield spot with a strong showing in Sarasota.

3.  Health - For all the happy talk about everyone being ready for Spring Training, there still has to be some concern with how Brad Bergesen, Nolan Reimold and, now, Will Ohman looks as they shake off the rust this March. For one, I will be shocked if Reimold plays any left field before March 15th. Koji Uehara needs to show he is back and can handle bullpen duty. Bergesen will have to show he feels good enough about his leg to pitch free and easy.

4.  The Battle for the Backup Backstop - This is my own pet subject and this year should be no less fascinating (at least for me). Trembley has already said he sees a good competition between Chad Moeller, Craig Tatum and Michael Hernandez. Sure, it's not earthshaking but it gives you something to watch during the late innings of those early Spring Training games.

5.  Shaking Out The Pen - Mike Gonazalez, Mark Hendrickson and Jim Johnson are near locks for three bullpen spots. The rest? Wide open. It's an interesting mix of veterans and kids. Matt Albers and Cla Meredith will try to retain their spots. Dennis Sarfate will try to force his way back in after being DFA'd this offseason. Kam Mickolio and Alberto Castillo will try to build on brief successes in 2009. Would-be rookie Josh Perrault is my dark horse candidate to make the bullpen in 2010. Can Uehara and Ohman stay healthy? Can Alfredo Simon relieve better than he started?

Could Nolan Reimold or Luke Scott Play First?

This comment under my Luke Scott post got me thinking...

Replace Atkins with Pie and that lineup is a thing of beauty. It would go



S L R L R S R L S


No consecutive batters from the same side. Man I wish Trembley would let Reimold or Scott play 1st.

math_geek

First, I hadn't realized how well balanced the handedness was in my sample lineup.

But really it got me thinking about first base. Why couldn't Nolan Reimold or Luke Scott play first on a regular basis? You could still sub in Atkins to add flexibility and give Reimold his reps in left. But replacing Atkins with Pie would give the O's the best offensive lineup.

CHONE Projections for the players involved:

OPS
Atkins      .739
Reimold     .832
Scott       .808
Pie         .767
 

Even Pie is projected to be a significantly better hitter than Garret Atkins. And even if we assume average fielding from Reimold in left, Pie is a big upgrade with the glove.

Reimold and Scott would both be big offensive upgrades over Atkins but how big is the difference in their defense? For his career at first base, his UZR is -6.3. That's only over 708+ innings and is a bit of a small sample size. We'll bump him up to -.3 UZR and give him the benefit of the doubt.

Now, we can measure this in terms of WAR. How badly would Scott or Reimold have to play at first to offset the offense they bring to the table. Plugging some values into the WAR spreadsheet, this is what I came up with. (I am assuming all will be equal baserunners.)

UZR
Scott     -19.0
Reimold   -26.0

The worst defensive first baseman (of regulars) in baseball last year was Billy Butler. His UZR was -7.4. You will occasionally see a guy have a season with -16, -18 UZR (Mike Jacobs had a -19.4 UZR in 2008) but it would be virtually impossible for Scott or (especially) Reimold to play first base so badly that they would offset their much improved bats.

The best choice would be to make Scott the everyday first baseman, rotate Pie and Reimold through LF/CF/DH with Adam Jones and bring Atkins off the bench.

But that's not happening.

The Crystal Ball '10: Nolan Reimold

Nolan Reimold was not supposed to be in Baltimore in 2009.

Injuries had limited his 2007 campaign to 53 games and in 2008 he was going to have to repeat AA. Baltimore seemed a long way off.

But Reimold got back on track as he put in a full healthy season in Bowie posting a .284/.367/.501 in 2008. Norfolk was in his sights but few expected him in Baltimore until September.  Reimold changed all that by destroying International League pitching to the tune of a .384/.485/.743 line in 31 games for Norfolk. His hot bat and untimely injuries to Adam Jones and Luke Scott garnered Reimold a recall in mid-May. His .279/.365/.466 line (including 15 homers) in Baltimore made sure he stayed. He was a breath of fresh air in left field given the crew that manned that position in the pre-Luke Scott era.

I was a little surprised that he got on base and slugged as well as he did since he was less than a year removed from AA but given his minor league track record maybe I shouldn't have been. All he has done in the minors is get on base (.383 OBP in minor league career) and hit for power (.522 SLG in the minors).

If he can play all season, he should OPS north of .850 with 25 home runs. The only Achilles' Heel is...his Achilles Tendon. Reimold had a surgery for an Achilles tendon tear in the offseason and although he indicated at the Sarasota FanFest that he would be ready for 2010, Roch Kubatko reported last week that:

Nolan Reimold isn't certain that he'll be full-go when he reports to spring training next month. He still hasn't done any sprints since undergoing surgery on his left Achilles on Sept. 23.

Achilles tendon injuries are tricky and they can take longer to fully heal than you might expect. Acceleration is the enemy of a healing Achilles and it is a bit odd that Dave Trembley seems to be assuming that Reimold will be able to play left field from day one.

So, it boils down to health. If Reimold is fully recovered from the surgery, we can expect big things. If not, we always have Felix Pie and Luke Scott on the roster.


Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Future...Is Now?

Over the last couple of weeks, the Orioles have proven that they cannot even manage to beat the dregs of the American League and find themselves in last place with the worst record in the league and the third worst record in baseball. Coming into Saturday's game, the Orioles had only managed to score a measly 1.7 runs per game for the month of June and it is reflected in the record. This offense was supposed to be decent this season but an anemic offense with the woeful pitching staff makes for a long summer in Baltimore. Does the recent outburst against Atlanta mean the slump is over? I'll believe it when they start doing it against the American League; facing NL hurlers is akin to playing AAA teams.

Instead of whining about the present, let's look to the Orioles' brighter future. There are more important issues than the standings for the Orioles and most of these players won't be here when Baltimore starts winning. How are the players under age 26playing?

Adam Jones:

The last couple weeks have seen Jones flailing and missing with 11 strikeouts and only 1 walk. The slump has worsened as he posted just a .100/.136/.250 line last week.

Jones has broken out this year, now he has to show he can continue to make adjustments.

Nick Markakis:

Since May 15th, Nick Markakis has put up a .211/.262/.307 line for a .569 OPS with only one home run.

That is easily the worst stretch of games for Nick since the first month of his rookie season. Is he injured? Let's hope not. I picked Markakis for a big breakout this season but so far he's gone the other direction. Sometimes, it's hard to remember that Markakis and Reimold are both 25.

Nolan Reimold:

For a guy who was considered a fringy prospect (I don't remember seeing him on anyone's Top 100 list except for Keith Law in recent years), Reimold has been a revelation the last two years. He stayed healthy and dominated the Carolina League last year and didn't miss a step when he showed up at Norfolk this year. Since coming to Baltimore, he is getting on base at a .356 clip (always a concern for him in the minors), has hit 7 home runs in his first 28 games and posted a .316/.435/.526 line last week alone. He appears to be getting better as the weeks go along. The future in the Oriole outfield is bright indeed.

Robert Andino:

I don't think that Robert Andino is ever going to hit well enough to be a starter in the Majors but his glove is giving me enough reason to think I may not hate the Hayden Penn trade in a couple years. A true great glove at short, Andino could be a valuable bench player/utility infielder for the next few years. The bat is Izturis-esque but so is the glove. He's actually played a better short than Izturis in his limited opportunities.

Matt Wieters:

"Matt Wieters Can And Does Assume The Double Play."

In his short professional career, Wieters has shown the ability to move up a level, struggle for a period of time, make adjustments and then destroy opposing pitchers. It looks like he's starting to do that in Baltimore.

Wieters hit .400/.438/.467 last week. He still doesn't have a home run and he still doesn't have an RBI but the signs are there that he's starting to adjust. No offense to Gregg Zaun but he's already a better hitter as he scuffles along.

Brad Bergesen:

When you have a trio of second tier pitching prospects like Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez and Jason Berken, (as opposed to top tier prospects like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta) you really have to feel lucky if just one of them works out as a starter and truly blessed if another of them ends up as a quality reliever.

The Orioles look to be lucky so far as Brad Bergesen is making his way to being a solid 3rd or 4th guy in a major league rotation. His stuff is not great, he's a sinker/slider pitcher who doesn't look like he's going to strike a bunch of guys out but he seems to be learning how to get the best out of his stuff and let the defense behind him do the heavy lifting.