The Crystal Ball '11: Cesar Izturis

Cesar Izturis will be returning to Baltimore in 2011. Thankfully, he will not be the everyday option at shortstop as the Orioles inked him to a $1.5 million, one year deal. With incentives, the deal could net Izzy more than $2 mil for next season. He will serve as a utility infielder.

But just because he probably doesn't deserve a full time starting job doesn't mean he can't be a valuable asset. The asset he brings, obviously, is his glove.

For all MLB shortstops, UZR, UZR component stats and UZR/150 for the last three seasons:

Name             DPR    RngR    ErrR    UZR    UZR/150
Jimmy Rollins    1.3    10.3    12.7    24.4    10.5
J.J. Hardy      -3.5    21.3     3.5    21.4     9.1
Cesar Izturis   -1.6    14.1     8.8    21.3     8.7
Alex Gonzalez    3.4     3.1     6.4    12.8     7.0
Alexei Ramirez   1.6    11.6    -0.9    12.4     6.0
Elvis Andrus    -1.1    15.4    -2.0    12.2     6.7
Troy Tulowitzki  3.3    -4.8    11.0     9.5     3.7
Yunel Escobar   -2.6    10.8     0.9     9.1     3.4
Erick Aybar      2.1    11.3    -5.4     8.0     3.3

And the Total Zone with Location (TLZ) for all MLB shortstops for the last three season:

Name             TZL
Yunel Escobar   41.8
Cesar Izturis   30.1
J.J. Hardy      24.9
Marco Scutaro   19.9
Troy Tulowitzki 16.3
Hanley Ramirez  13.9
Jimmy Rollins   12.9
Michael Young   10.0
Edgar Renteria   7.8
Elvis Andrus     6.1

From these metrics you can see two things; first, that Izturis has been one of the top three fielding shortstops in baseball over the past three seasons. Arguably, you could rank him higher. Second, how about J. J. Hardy? He is Izzy's equal with the glove and is projected to be a league average hitter.

I'm sure Oriole fans find little comfort in Cesar's defensive wizardry since his bat is so bad. But even with the weak bat, Izturis still adds value. Not last year, when FanGraphs had him valued at -0.3 WAR but during an ordinary season, he's a valuable player.

His .545 OPS in 2010 was the lowest of his career and he still almost broke even in term of WAR when you factor in his glove. He was unlucky with his BABIP, even factoring in a slight decline in his Line Drive rate. He will never be a great hitter but even if he posts his career OPS of .618 in 2011, he could be worth 1.0 WAR as a full time player.

But fortunately, he will not be a full time player. He can fill in for an injured Hardy or Brian Roberts or be deployed against lefties versus whom he has a .639 career OPS.

He's not a difference maker by any means but Izturis and his glove should still be quite valuable in a backup role for Baltimore.

Orioles Are Switching It Up

Saw this on Twitter las night from CamdenRevival:

Wow, forgot the Orioles have four switch-hitters in the lineup. Though I wish two were named Murray & Singleton. #Orioles #that70sOsShow

Damn. He was right. I can't believe I missed that. Brian Roberts, Matt Wieters, Josh Bell and Cesar Izturis were all in the lineup. The first time it happened was August 3rd. Just over 14 years ago, to the day, was the last time the O's featured a quartet of switch hitters. (August 2, 1996)

Also pointed out by CamdenRevival, the four switch hitters appeared in consecutive spots in the batting order as it turned. Roberts was 1st, while Wieters, Bell and Izturis filled spots 7-9. That also happened for the first time on August 3rd and had never happened in Oriole history before.

How do I know all this? I posted this last season when it appeared that Wieters, Roberts, Izturis and Zaun might make up a quartet of switch hitters. But Izturis was hurt and Zaun got traded shortly after Wieters' call up from Norfolk.

This quartet will be short lived as Izturis will probably be gone after the season and there are no switch hitters in AAA. Although, the next guys are in Bowie and are both shortstops (Pedro Florimon and Greg Miclat) so maybe they'll be here sooner than we think.

5 Things To Watch - Spring Training 2010

It's that time again! 8 days until the first Spring Training workouts commence. Unlike previous years, many of the roster spots will be spoken for going into Sarasota but there will still be some things to look for, many of them holdover topics from previous years

1.  Chris Tillman - The rotation is pretty much set but comments from Dave Trembley and Tillman's struggles during his debut last season have left the door open. He's only 22 and if he doesn't look more like the Norfolk version of Tillman in Spring Training, he could find himself back in AAA to start the season. There's also an outside chance that David Hernandez figures out how to strike guys out in Sarasota and edges Tillman out. We know that Trembley likes to go with the hot hand in spring. See Alfredo Simon last season.

2.  The Bench - It's hard to believe that Ty Wigginton breaks camp with the team given his salary and his skill set. This opens the door for Michael Aubrey, Rhyne Hughes or Scott Moore (I have not given up on Moore yet...). And while Robert Andino showed a good glove last season, his bat makes Cesar Izturis look like Brian Roberts. Justin Turner in particular could earn a utility infield spot with a strong showing in Sarasota.

3.  Health - For all the happy talk about everyone being ready for Spring Training, there still has to be some concern with how Brad Bergesen, Nolan Reimold and, now, Will Ohman looks as they shake off the rust this March. For one, I will be shocked if Reimold plays any left field before March 15th. Koji Uehara needs to show he is back and can handle bullpen duty. Bergesen will have to show he feels good enough about his leg to pitch free and easy.

4.  The Battle for the Backup Backstop - This is my own pet subject and this year should be no less fascinating (at least for me). Trembley has already said he sees a good competition between Chad Moeller, Craig Tatum and Michael Hernandez. Sure, it's not earthshaking but it gives you something to watch during the late innings of those early Spring Training games.

5.  Shaking Out The Pen - Mike Gonazalez, Mark Hendrickson and Jim Johnson are near locks for three bullpen spots. The rest? Wide open. It's an interesting mix of veterans and kids. Matt Albers and Cla Meredith will try to retain their spots. Dennis Sarfate will try to force his way back in after being DFA'd this offseason. Kam Mickolio and Alberto Castillo will try to build on brief successes in 2009. Would-be rookie Josh Perrault is my dark horse candidate to make the bullpen in 2010. Can Uehara and Ohman stay healthy? Can Alfredo Simon relieve better than he started?

The Crystal Ball '10: Cesar Izturis

To go against the grain, I was going to take a closer look at Cesar Izturis' offensive game and try to come up with something of a silver lining to the dark cloud that is Izturis' bat.

As you might expect, I came up pretty dry on that front.

One thing that is encouraging though, is that after a rash of injuries to his hamstrings over the years, Izturis seems to have regained some of his speed. 8.2% of his hits were infield hits, he stole 12 bases in 114 games and a full 33% of his bunts attempts went for hits. The wheels are back and you'd like to think that if not for an appendectimy mid-season that he he would have stolen 20 bases.

Beyond that, there is no trend that points to any noticable change in Izturis' offensive output one way or another. He is a free-swinging, light-hitting, shortstop who adds little besides decent speed to the lineup.

So it's a good thing that he is possibly the best shortstop glove in the Majors.

Only the Cards' Brendan Ryan added more WAR with their glove than Izturis. Forgetting that Derek Jeter got the award for a second, Izturis turned in Gold Glove caliber defense by any metric you want to use. In fact, over the last two seasons Izturis has posted a 12.7 UZR/150 which leads the majors, well above the next guy (Jimmy Rollins at 8.8).

Besides, these young pitchers will need a guy like Izturis behind them this year. Forget about a reliable closer, a slick-fielding shortstop will do wonders for the psyche of a young pitcher battling for wins. Expect that support from Izturis and expect some timely stolen bases but anything he does at the plate will obviously be gravy. Izturis brings considerable value with the glove but that is all.


Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0