When Will the Orioles Get Creative?

I believe the Baltimore Orioles can compete in the AL East. I really do.

When I hear others say that there is no way the O's can compete with the massive payrolls of the Yankees and Red Sox, I say that they can. It just takes four things:

1. Develop Your Farm System
2. Make Shrewd Trades
3. Spend In Free Agency on Select Talent
4. Get Creative

I didn't just pull these out of my hat. These are things teams like Oakland, Minnesota, Texas, Tampa Bay, San Diego and even the Red Sox have done to build themselves into winners and contenders in the past. The Orioles can do the same thing...but will they?

The first one, the Orioles are doing a good job with. Remember, the Oriole farm system was a desert from about 1987 to 2007. Think about it. How many regular players did Baltimore develop in those 20 years outside of Mike Mussina, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis? Few. Andy MacPhail has had to revamp the whole thing and is slowly getting it back to respectability. It's still a pit that needs filling but in 3-5 years, it could be a consistently good system churning out useful talent.

The second, MacPhail does a good job with, too. Trades have brought a lot a value back to Baltimore and I won't highlight those here. Check the Oriole Trade Monitors to see that.

Free agency is where Baltimore gets in trouble. They can't always get interest from the top free agents so you are left with overpaying them either in years or cash or you have to go without. Thankfully, MacPhail has avoided the temptation of giving the wrong player a cumbersome albatross of a contract. Baltimore can afford to spend more than people think but they don't have the farm system or the revenue to overcome a big mistake. But MacPhail does tend to reach and spend in unwise areas like ill-advised reclamation projects or giving big cash to relief pitchers (although, he has kept these contract to two-year deals or less so far).

This leads us to getting creative. You have to know that there will be times when the top free agents may not want to come to Baltimore. So why get held up by the likes of Adam LaRoche just to fill a hole in the infield? That's where you have to get creative.

Years ago, the Athletics saw something in castoff Boston catcher Scott Hatteberg. They turned him into a serviceable first baseman for three seasons (and then he went to the Reds and did it for two more seasons). You see the Padres trying to do it with Brad Hawpe now...taking an oufielder who could rebound to his 2007-2009 levels of offensive production and plugging him into their hole at first base.

Just because Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee are the only prominent names left with the "1B" designation left next to their name doesn't mean you can't get creative when trying to add an impact bat. The idea of shifting Luke Scott to first base and allowing a greater offensive pool of DH types to be available to the Orioles is an idea that is gaining traction. But it's not new. I called for it last offseason (as an alternative to Garrett Atkins) and Scott himself is on the record saying that he doesn't want to be a fulltime DH and would love a chance to play some first base. This is the kind of thinking a team like Baltimore needs. You don't have to get held up by a guy like Adam LaRoche. He's an OK talent, not one worthy of a three-year deal at this point. Tell him to pound sand and tell Luke to start working with his first basemen's mitt again. Get on the line with the agents for Vlad Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome. Ask them how a big one-year deal grabs them.

These are not ideal situations but this is Baltimore. You're not going to face a lot of ideal situations as you work to improve your club. And in that case, you have to get creative.

Sadly, I don't see this happening and it's the one thing that leaves me thinking that eventually this club will need someone young and hungry running this front office before the Orioles take real steps back to contending. It's a quality I don't think Andy MacPhail possesses.

Brian Roberts Hospitalized with Pneumonia

According to Jeff Zrebiec, Brian Roberts has been hospitalized and diagnosed with pneumonia.

Orioles injured second baseman Brian Roberts didn't board a plane today headed for Sarasota, Fla., like he originally planned in order to begin his rehab program for the herniated disk in his back.

Roberts, instead, was at a Baltimore area hospital, where he was diagnosed with pneumonia...

“We don’t anticipate that it’s going to be anything that impacts his rehabilitation schedule,” Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said.

Roberts now probably won't leave for the team's spring training complex in Sarasota for a several days.

Firstly, regardless of what Andy MacPhail says, it absolutely impacts his rehab schedule. He was supposed to leave yesterday, now he won't report to Sarasota for several days. Schedule impacted. I am just incredulous that MacPhail would say such a thing.

Secondly, can we get Roberts on a plan for healthful living? Forgetting the back issues and the abdominal strain, Roberts was sidelined for three days in Spring Training with the stomach flu and now this 32-year old athlete comes down with pneumonia, not in the dead of winter, but in May.

What's up with Brian's immune system? $10 million per year can buy a lot of vitamins.

Time to start taking better care of yourself Brian...you aren't getting any younger.

How The Orioles Got Rhyne Hughes

The obvious answer to the above title is, "He was the PTBNL in the Gregg Zaun deal with the Rays." But there is more to it than that.

When Andy MacPhail took over as President of Baseball Operations in June of 2007, he took to overhauling the Oriole farm system. His first task was to acquire all the quality arms he could get. But he also saw that the prospects at the corner infield positions were thin, to say the least. There were only two 1B/3B prospects of note: Billy Rowell and Brandon Snyder, both former 1st round picks, both flawed in their own ways and both way down the ladder in Delmarva.

MacPhail knew he needed more depth at the corners in the minor league system and many of the trades he's made since have focused on getting upper-level prospects at a discount.

Some of his acquisitions of note:

August 2007 - Acquired 3B Scott Moore from Cubs
December 2007 - Acquired 3B Mike Costanzo from Astros
January 2008 - Signed 1B/3B Oscar Salazar
December 2008 - Acquired 3B Brandon Waring from Reds
June 2009 - Drafted 1B Tyler Townsend in 3rd Rd
June 2009 - Acquired 1B Michael Aubrey from Indians
July 2009 - Acquired 3B Josh Bell from Dodgers
August 2009 - Acquired 1B Rhyne Hughes from Rays

Some guys flamed out (Costanzo), some are still toiling in the minors (Waring, Moore) and some have contributed already (Salazar, Aubrey and now Hughes). The point is, MacPhail increased the depth, gave up little for any of these guys and is now seeing the fruits of this labor in Rhyne Hughes. Hughes may not be a long-term solution but you never know. He certainly offers a short-term upgrade over Garrett Atkins.

(All of this makes the $4.5 million deal for Atkins all the more frustrating. There were plenty of cheaper internal options that could have reasonably duplicated or exceeded his performance.)

Some things in baseball don't change. Branch Rickey said,"From quantity comes quality." and with MacPhail increasing the minor league talent at the corner infield positions, he seems to have found some quality in it. This is not to say that those positions are now strengths in the system...just that it is no longer moribund and it was improved without spending millions.

Around the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Acceptance Edition

Roar from 34 looks at the ultimate good news/bad news situation. The Orioles pitching staff has been racking up quality starts. But they haven't been winning any of them.

Camden Crazies delves deep into the question..."Where the hell if the offense?"

Camden Depot has a quick graph showing Nick Markakis' walk rate and how it has diminished over the past week or so. Indeed, Nick has no walks and 9 strikeouts over the past 9 games, something he'll need to turn around if he is to have lasting success this season. I would imagine this is a sign that he is pressing a bit, feeling the need to swing the bat more with the offense in a funk. But for now, it's working.

Baltimore Sports Report breaks down the upcoming series in Boston.

It could always be worse. At least the Orioles are not the 1899 Cleveland Spiders.

Chris Stoner at Baltimore Sports and Life looks ahead to what he hopes to see from the rest of the Oriole season. It certainly better than focusing on the present.

Over at Camden Chat, sandalfan believes that the Oriole's woes are best explained by one phenomenon...bad luck.

Patrick Smith imagines Andy MacPhail having a sit-down with Dave Trembley. This is a week old but unfortunately, still very relevant.

Not really the Blog-O-Sphere but Shorebirds announcer Bret Lasky has an interview with former Oriole and current Delmarva coach Mike Devereaux. I know Bret did an interview with Matt Hobgood...looking forward to hearing that.

Giving Credit Where Credit is Due

Randall: When the rebels blew up the first Death Star...


Dante: Luke Skywalker. I like giving credit where credit is due.


- Clerks


Not that there was a ton of success for the Orioles in 2009 but I was curious where the credit was due. Andy MacPhail has remade the Orioles in his image since he arrived in 2007 but how much and how successfully? Which GMs made the trades, signings and draft picks that shaped the Orioles in 2009?

I decided to measure it in terms of WAR for 2009 only. Here's the snapshot for the hitters.

Batting
                          WAR
MacPhail                  7.0
Duquette\Flanagan         2.5
Beattie\Flanagan          3.1
Frank Wren                3.4

As expected, MacPhail is responsible for much of the good play in 2009 led by Adam Jones, Luke Scott and Felix Pie. Lou Montanez and Ty Wigginton did not help his cause.

The Jim Beattie/Mike Flanagan combo was responsible for Nick Markakis and Nolan Reimold. The Jim Duquette/Flanagan combo was aided by the drafting of Matt Wieters, one of the last things they did before getting dismissed. Without it, they would be responsible for only 0.6 WAR from the offense less than two years after being dismissed. Frank Wren will always have Brian Roberts.

The pitching:

Pitching
                          WAR
MacPhail                  4.5
Duquette\Flanagan         1.8
Beattie\Flanagan          0.7
Syd Thrift                0.5

Here's where MacPhail really shines. What little success the O's had on the mound can be attributed to him even with Brian Bass and Alfredo Simon pulling things down. Koji Uehara, George Sherrill and Brian Matusz lead the way on the positive side.

Duquette and Flanagan found Jeremy Guthrie and drafted Jason Berken. They also signed Danys Baez and Jamie Walker. Beattie/Flanagan drafted Brad Bergesen but got pulled down by David Hernandez, Bob McCrory and Rad Liz. Syd Thrift is living on Jim Johnson.

MacPhail obviously has an advantage as he has way more players contributing than the others. A breakdown of WAR per player:

WAR/Player
MacPhail                .44
Duquette\Flanagan       .53
Beattie\Flanagan        .48

But this is also skewed a bit since players who don't produce don't last long. MacPhail's guys are still working things out.

What's the conclusion? Probably nothing to be learned here...yet. MacPhail has added impact players to the previous regimes (previous GMs added Markakis, Wieters, Roberts, Bergesen, Reimold) with Jones, Pie, Scott, Matusz, even the glove of Cesar Izturis. But, unsurprisingly, the key will be the young arms and how many pan out to be even average MLB starters.

Base Hits: A Dose of Offseason Hope, Aubrey Finds a Job and More Spring Training

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes about a possible rosy future for the Baltimore Orioles and the rebuilding philosophy of Andy MacPhail.

“The game has morphed,” MacPhail said. “The teams in our division have morphed. You’ve got teams with incredible revenue and payrolls, and we just can’t support what they do. So we have to be better at what we do.”

Which is, in MacPhail’s two-plus years with the Orioles, identifying and stockpiling young, cheap talent. The amount of potential on Baltimore’s 40-man roster is frightening, even to the Yankees and Red Sox...

More from MacPhail, regarding the signing of RP Mike Gonzalez:

“I’ve never believed a closer is a luxury,” MacPhail said. “I know that’s the conventional wisdom among a lot of people, but those aren’t people who have to watch your team play 162 times. You need to win the games you’re supposed to win for the sake of your players, your fans, your franchise.

“It’s important for morale. There’s nothing more debilitating for your players than looking around in the seventh inning and wondering how you’re going to blow this game.”

I don't buy this reasoning. If MacPhail believed in a "proven" closer, why did he wait two years before signing one? I think he believes that a free agent closer is a luxury the Orioles can afford in 2011 and that Gonzalez will be well worth his salary as the Orioles try to field a winner in two years.

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Speaking of optimism, the guys on the Baseball America podcast love the Oriole prospects. They don't rank them above the Rays farm system but are concerned about Tampa's lack of fan support, even in 2008 when they went to the World Series, and the impact going forward on keeping that young talent.

The Orioles, however, will not have that issue if they start winning. They will have the money to keep their young talent. They like Brandon Snyder much more than most (or I) do and think if Josh Bell proves to be good major league hitter that the lineup will be stacked. They envision Snyder hitting no higher than 7th in the lineup anyway....the rest of the hitters will be that good.

They also think that Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz are impact pitchers and love their pitching depth in the minors to fill out the rest of the rotation.

They don't see the O's winning before 2011 but they think from '11 forward, they will be a team to be reckoned with. Good source for offseason hope.

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Renovations on Ed Smith Stadium, the new Spring Training home, are on hold thanks to a lawsuit filed by a local citizens group.

As I stated before, this stadium is already in better shape than the facility in Ft. Lauderdale so it's still an improvement in the short term. Time will tell if the facility will be renovated to become of of the best in the minor leagues as promised.

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Former Oriole 1B/DH Aubrey Huff has found a home for 2010 with the San Francisco Giants.

That's a mildly interesting story but the repercussions for future Oriole first basemen are even more interesting. Says Craig Calcaterra from NBC.com's Circling the Bases:

One followup thought to Bob's post on the Huff signing: How dumb does Adam LaRoche feel right now for turning down a two-year, $17 million from the Giants to be their first baseman?

At this point I'm seeing a one-year, $6 million deal in Baltimore in his future. Maybe an option if he's lucky.

I said I was not crazy about the options left at first base and that the Orioles should stand pat at this point and let Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder play their way into the Baltimore lineup this season.

But if LaRoche has to take a one-year deal for $6 million...I think I would be OK with that. It would add cheap production, depth and insurance.

I would still prefer to leave things as they are right now but I wouldn't hate that deal.

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Daniel Moroz breaks down how much Jim Palmer (and by extension, all the pitchers of the late 60's and 70's teams) were helped by the fantastic assortment of defenders who played behind them.

Base Hits: Rumors, Recaps and Rebounds

The year would not be complete without Wayward O's 2009 Recaptacular! Unmissable reading.

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SI's Jon Heyman reports today that the Orioles are still indeed interested in signing Matt Holliday even though Andy MacPhail vehemently denied similiar reports from Fox Sports yesterday.

"The Orioles are laying in the weeds on this," according to a person familiar with Baltimore's thinking...

A report that the Orioles offered Holliday $130 million over eight years was denied by Orioles president/GM Andy MacPhail in The Baltimore Sun. However, MacPhail did not deny interest in the three-time All-Star...

I would still tend to believe MacPhail on this because, as John Sickels laid out nicely last offseason, Heyman is often a media mouthpiece for Scott Boras.

But if Heyman turns out to be correct, MacPhail and The Warehouse take a huge credibility hit.

*****

At The Bleacher Report, someone calling himself the Baseball Professor lays out the case for a rebound season for Nick Markakis, at least in the fantasy baseball sense.

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Mike Bordick is returning to Baltimore as a minor league offensive coordinator. At first glance, I would rather have Bordick working with guys on infield defense (which he says he may do as well)...

Bordick, 44, will be responsible for working with the club's prospects on offensive fundamentals such as base running, bunting and situational hitting.

Bordick was a pretty good baserunner and bunter (from what I cann recall) but I hope this is not indicative of the Trembley philosophy of "hit and run" and "agressive baserunning" spreading to the whole organization.

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Dave Mc at Weaver's Tantrum offers some thoughts on the "lukewarm" Hot Stove season for the Orioles.


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An entertaining excercise as Dan of Camden Crazies tries to quantify just how bad a major league player he would be.
 
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Trembley or Not Trembley? That Is The Question...

I've been seeing a few posts speculating on Dave Trembley's future as manager of the Baltimore Orioles. Or to be clear, they have been calling for Trembley's head after yet another losing season of Oriole baseball.

What strikes me as odd though is that most people are focusing strictly on the team's record. If you had a problem with Trembey's affection for the hit and run or aggressiveness on the basepaths with players who are ill-suited for the task, I could understand that a bit. Maybe even if you blamed him for the baserunning and fielding lapses, I would be with you. Maybe.

The bottom line is this: With the team Baltimore fielded in 2009, I'm not sure that anyone else could have done a better job.

The starting rotation we fielded on Opening Day included Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton and Alfredo Simon. We bolstered it with the likes of Rich Hill and an array of rookies who were, for the most part, rushed to fill the holes. Koji Uehara got hurt. Jeremy Guthrie is having his worst season in the majors.

The bullpen was a relative strength until the rotation fell apart. Guys were overused, fresh (and lesser arms) were brought up from the minors to help.

There was no offense to be had from the corner infield positions. Offense from the catching spot has been erratic. Overall, the lineup has had many solid performers but no stars. That kind of lineup will have trouble scoring when you are getting nothing from shortstop, third base or first base at the plate.

So this was/is a team with promise but a lot of flaws. The fatal flaw, of course, is that you compete in the AL East without a real pitching staff.

What could Trembley have done? Yelled really loud at Adam Eaton to make him pitch better? Gave a really nifty pep talk to Rich Hill and turn his season around? Shake Melvin Mora until he starts hitting like it's 2003? I don't think there's anything that Trembley could have done that would make any difference in the standings.

The truth is that Dave Trembley is not going to be judged by anything that happened on the field this year, not in a tangible way. Andy MacPhail is going to talk to his players, especially Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts and get their take on it. Has Trembley lost them or does he have their support? He's going to talk to Trembley's staff. He's going to talk to his people in the front office. He's going to talk to other coaches around the league. And then he's going to look at the record.

If Andy feels that the team could use a new voice, he'll make a change. If he feels that Trembley's philosophy of play no longer jibes with his, he'll make a change. But I really don't think Trembley has done anything wrong. I had a ton of reasons that Sam Perlozzo needed to go. Not so much with Trembley. There's nothing obvious (in my opinion) to point to since the record is a reflection of the whole organization, not just the manager.

I don't know if Trembley will be back in 2010 but that decision will be made by MacPhail and internal discussions not due to the record.

All this said, I'm OK with either scenario. Until he proves otherwise, in Andy I trust.