Lineup Solutions: Luke Scott vs. Hideki Matsui

As the Oriole offense stumbles along, solutions and Monday morning quarterbacking reign in the world of Twitter. One person wondered how much better the offense would be if Baltimore had not signed Garrett Atkins, traded Luke Scott and signed Hideki Matsui instead.

We pretty much agreed on Atkins so the debate became Scott vs. Matsui as primary DH heading into 2010.

Here's some background numbers:

Salary for 2010:

Luke Scott:      $4.05 mil
Hideki Matsui:   $6.00 mil

Slash Lines for last 3 Seasons:

Scott   .257/.342/.486
Matsui  .284/.368/.479

ISO for Last 3 Seasons:

Scott    .230
Matsui   .196

Below are graphs showing Scott's and Matsui's monthly OPS compared to their averages over that span to demonstrate their "streakiness". First, here's Scott:

And here's Matsui's:

Scott's Standard Deviation: .206
Matsui's Standard Deviation: .146

So, Matsui is a slightly more well-rounded hitter, getting more out of his batting averge than Scott. He also is less streaky but his Standard Deviation is only 60 points of OPS deviation different than Scott. Not sure it's that significant but it's a point in his favor.

Scott is just as patient, has more power, is cheaper, younger and can still play the field. (Matsui is an absolute butcher in the outfield; Scott is, at his worst, adequate.

Going into 2010, you could point to Matsui as the slightly better all-around bat but he loses in every other category. Matsui may be the better hitter but Scott is a better ballplayer.

While Scott's streakiness is maddening, he's also a very good bet to turn it around before the end of the season. I would still assume that Scott will give the O's more in terms of WAR that Matsui gives the Angels by season's end. (ZIPS projections for the rest of the season seem to back this up with Scott projected to OPS .788 the rest of the way.)

Repercussions of the Sweep

As much fun as it was to watch the Oriole sweep of the Red Sox, it is almost as much fun watching the aftermath in New England. Here's a taste:

Eric Wilbur - Boston Globe: O What A Disaster

There are worse things in baseball than getting swept by the Orioles, but...no, actually that's it. Getting swept by the Orioles is the worst thing in baseball. There....

After watching this team for the past 30 days, anyone who thinks they can make a run at the American League East without either making drastic moves or drinking from the Fountain of Youth (provided it is MWRA approved) is driving the optimistic train to la-la land. Run prevention has become a bigger joke than "Where would we play Willie McGee?"

...Perhaps that's a portion of the reason that you can inexplicably find tickets for this week against the Angels for as little as $6 on StubHub - even more surprising, $6 standing room seats for John Lackey's first start against his former club. Still, isn't that telling all the same?



Tony Massorotti -The Boston Globe: Sox Succeeding Only to Keep It Close

The Red Sox already have lost twice as many games to the wretched Baltimore Orioles as they did all of last season, dropping the third and final game yesterday in a weekend sweep at the hands of the worst team in baseball.

It’s starting to feel like this could be a long summah – and the Sox know it.

"It doesn’t get any easier. Everyone thought Baltimore was three easy wins, and we got our [behinds] kicked three times," second baseman Dustin Pedroia told reporters after yesterday’s loss.




Boston Dirt Dogs - The Boston Globe: Widespread Panic

Sox Swept in the Place Formerly Known as Fenway South, A Nation Prepares to Throw in the Towel on 2010...Getting Swept in Baltimore Is Inexcusable and Unforgivable.

John Tomase - Boston Herald: Big Changes Looming After Sox Swept By Lowly O's

The Red Sox are a dysfunctional mess. Victor Martinez can’t hit to save his life. Beltre keeps making poor plays defensively and has become a free-swinging singles hitter. Mike Lowell is struggling to find a groove while playing sporadically. Jacoby Ellsbury [stats]’s injury and absence have killed them.

Evan Brunell -NESN.com: Is It time for Red Sox to Consider Changes?

A month has gone by, and it is clear that things have to change for the Red Sox to start winning. Is it as simple as waiting for Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury to return?

Or is something bigger needed?

One thing this team could stand to add is home-run power. Well, there's a slugger on fire in the minor leagues that just might be ready. That's none other than Lars Anderson, who slogged through a poor 2009 at Double-A before tearing the level apart this season and getting a promotion to Triple-A.

...Want home runs but don't think Anderson or Reddick is the solution? Perhaps Chris Davis is.

Speaking of looking outside the Red Sox organization ...

...Is the Red Sox' future designated hitter currently cranking home runs in Washington (Adam Dunn)?

...Or could a ex-Boston left fielder assured of making the Hall of Fame and still ripping the cover off the ball make a return to town? Paging Manny Being Manny.

(This is my favorite. Brunell is a tool who has written about Baltimore derisively and arrogantly viewed them as a Sox farm team (especially when he hungrily eyed young Nick Markakis). I love watching him flail for solutions like Chris Davis, Manny Ramirez and rushing young prospects to try to save an lost season. Good stuff.)