Excercises in Oriole Lineup Optimization

Just so we're clear, this post is NOT in response to last night's heartbreaking loss to Tampa. The creeping fatalism, once so identified with Red Sox fans, that has taken hold in Birdland will not breach the ramparts of Dempsey's Army. I so swear.

No, I started looking at this before the game began, when I looked at the lineup and saw that Dave Trembley had designated Miguel Tejada as our Opening Day cleanup hitter. That's right, the guy who hasn't ISO'd north of .200 since 2005, the man who has only slugged more than .450 once in the last three years (.455 last season).

So, I wanted to see how much that was hurting the team. So I went to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis site to check it out.

First, I entered last night's lineup with 2010 CHONE projections for the lineup:

Brian Roberts
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis
Miguel Tejada
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
Felix Pie
Garrett Atkins
Cesar Izturis

This lineup is projected to produce an average of 5.128 runs per game or 831 runs over the course of the season.

Now, I entered the lineup I would like to see. (We'll forget about the personnel for a minute and just rearrange them...)

If you check in regularly,you know I have endorsed Luke Scott for cleanup hitter to start the season. I have framed this argument using slugging percentage or ISO but I think I need to break it down to more basic levels. Here's what I like in my cleanup hitters...With runners on base, I want him to hit the ball a long, long way, as far away from home plate as possible so that the base runners have the most time possible to round the bases and reach said home plate. The further he hits it, the more likely the base runners are to score. He might even hit it over the fence. And I want him to do it more often than anyone else on the team. Silly me.

Right now, that man is Luke Scott.

Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Adam Jones
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
Miguel Tejada
Felix Pie
Garrett Atkins
Cesar Izturis

How does this version shake out? This lineup would score 5.148 runs per game or 834 runs per season. That's only three extra runs per season. Better but probably not that significant.

What's the optimum lineup?

Roberts
Markakis
Scott
Wieters
Jones
Pie
Atkins
Tejada
Izturis

This lineup would score 5.157 runs per game or 835 over the course of a season, only one more run than my lineup.

However, what if we moved Luke Scott to first base and plugged in Nolan Reimold at first base?

The best lineup would look like this:

Roberts
Markakis
Wieters
Reimold
Jones
Tejada
Pie
Scott
Izturis

That lineup would produce 5.274 runs per game or 854 runs over the course of the season.

So as you can see, lineups are fairly overrated, at least in comparison to upgrading the talent which moves the needle much more.

As long as you keep Izturis in the 9th spot and Roberts in the 1st, you can jumble around the rest of the lineup with only two or three runs difference over the course of the season. Could that mean a win or two? Sure. But I think this difference could be made up for with luck on either side. But replacing Atkins with Reimold instantly adds 19 runs over the course of the season. Now that's a huge difference.

So maybe we Oriole fans should worry less about the order of the lineup and more about the personnel that comprises it.

Pirates vs. Orioles in Sarasota, 3/5/2010

In my continuing non-linear recap of my Spring Training trip, I present a few items from the first game we attended in Sarasota. The Pirates came down I-75 from nearby Bradenton to play a night game at Ed Smith Stadium.

For this game, I had good seats (I checked Stubhub.com and got a good deal on tickets in the field boxes on the visitor's side) but the weather was not ideal. It was chilly and windy and got more so as the evening wore on. I was not dressed for it but we did manage to hang in there for 5 innings.



Some notes from the game:

• Miguel Tejada got the start at third and did not look very comfortable there. He made the plays but was not smooth. As it stands, he is probably about as good as Melvin Mora was for most of last season and you have to figure that he will get better. Big arm on Tejada still.
• Chris Tillman got the start and was effective (2 perfect innings with 3 Ks) but was a bit wild and ran the count to 3-2 a few times.
• Adam Jones clubbed an opposite field homer in the 3rd providing the most exciting offensive moment of the night.
• On a shallow popup to center, Adam Jones ran under it and seemed to call for the ball but Robert Andino was running at full speed from shortstop and ran into Jones' left arm as he made the catch. Jones didn't drop the ball but had a few words for Andino afterwards.
• Starting 2B Blake Davis hit a rocket to Aki Iwamure at second that bounced off his knee and rolled away into foul territory behind first base. Davis was flying out of the box and was rounding second before anyone got to the ball. It looked like he had a good shot at taking third on a close play but Juan Samuel held him up and Davis put on the brakes and scrambled back to second. Samuel was lustily booed as he denied us all a chance to see an exciting play at third.
• Mike Gonzalez started out well but looked uncofortable pitching out of the stretch once runners were on base.
• Jake Arrieta was wild and had a hard time finding the plate.

It was a sparsely attended game which meant the kids could stand down by the Oriole dugout and get autographs almost up until game time and the Pirates were signing on the other side too.



Again, it was unseasonably cold once the sun went down, low-50's at best, so we left early. But even a cold baseball game is better than spending the evening at home.

Miggy Didn't Report Until Today....And So What?

A sampling of comments around the web about the fact that Miguel Tejada did not report to camp until today:

I see Tejada is making a strong effort to restore the fans confidence.

I suppose we shouldn't read anything into it this early but there is a marked difference in Atkins showing up early looking to work with the Crow.


He never was much for practice or leading by example.

I hope Tejeda has been taking ground balls since he signed. I would have thought myself he would have been the 1st one in camp to work at the hot corner but that is just me.


He should have reported early to show that he is ready to lead and to hustle, but NOOO he has to drag ass in at the last possible moment to create drama. Mark my words, before this season is over Andy Macphail will regret bringing him back.

 Really? Pitchers and catchers didn't report until last Wednesday. Position players didn't start reporting until yesterday. Does anyone truly believe that and extra 1-5 days in camp will make the difference between Tejada being a good fielder ro a poor fielder at third base? I think this is just frustration from the fans and Tejada makes a good target.

Luke Scott doesn't know exactly where he's going to play. Not one comment seen about Scott not reporting early. Hmmm.....

Base Hits: Offseason Moves, Suspensions and Hope for the Season

Erik Bedard went back to Seattle. Now that the best of the remaining "high risk, high reward" pitchers is off the market, one has to wonder if the O's will now bring in a couple guys on minor league deals. The pickings are slim. Todd Wellemeyer. Kip Wells. Livan Hernandez. Jason Jennings. Kris Benson. And more like that. The Orioles have been linked to none of them.

One intriguing possibility would be Noah Lowry if he's truly healthy but for now it appears that the Orioles are satisfied to go to Spring Training with David Hernandez, Jason Berken and Alfredo Simon as backup plans.

(And it's nice lip service and all but I don't believe for a second that Chris Tillman has serious competition for a rotation spot. It's a nice thing for Dave Trembley to say for motivation but Tillman is in the rotation barring injury.)

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Oriole minor league reliever Brian Parker has been suspended for 50 games after violating the Minor League drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Given the level of prospect, I'll label this one "BFD".

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I was listening to the MLB Home Plate channel on Sirius/XM radio last Wednesday when Adam Jones was pulled over while conducting a phone interview with Casey Stern and Kevin Kennedy. "Guy's, you're not going to believe this but I'm getting pulled over." sais Adam, then as he addressed the officer, "Hold on, I'm conducting an interview. Let me get off the phone." He was pulled over and cited for having his windows tinted too darkly (Jones lives in San Diego but was in Arizona for offseason workouts) and when he came back on the show he reported that the officer was a Red Sox fan and like Jacoby Ellsbury. Adam's mother defended him over here.

But here's some other gems from the interview:

Jones doesn't care where he hits in the lineup, he just likes hitting with Brian Roberts on base. If Nick Markakis is on base too, all the better. He just likes to drive in runs.

On Nick Markakis' arm and defensive prowess, ""I yell at him everytime he gets to throw. He has a great arm. I love it. I loive watching him throw."

In addressing a couple of off-beat question from Casey Stern, Jones reports that he is the most likely Oriole to lock his keys in his car and that Nick Markakis is the teammate most in need of a makeover. "He wears the 'Who shot the couch?' coat sometimes."

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In other various roster news, Roch Kubatko thinks that Ty Wigginton may get dealt before the season begins. I have been assuming/hoping that he will since Garret Atkins and Miguel Tejada make him expendable and moving him gives Michael Aubrey or Scott Moore a shot at a bench spot.

Japanese lefthander Hisanori Takahashi,a former team mate of Koji Uehara, has rejected a minor league offer from the Orioles. Not great loss here as he would be providing only depth except for that cool name.

Dennis Sarfate has cleared waivers and will be a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. A little depth never helps.

Cal Ripken, Jr. and Brooks Robinson both believe that Miguel Tejada has the skills to make the transition to third base. The gist is that Tejada still has the "quick twitch" skills and the arm to play third, which is probably true.

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The Wayard O details Nestor's swansong from the WNST airwaves.

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In a variation of the "he's in the best shape of his life" stories you see at this time of year, here's a couple from Steve Melewski on former (and future?) Oriole top prospect Billy Rowell. Part 1 and Part 2. I'd like to get optimistic but...

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I love two things today; DJ Roomba and the latest edition of the Eutaw Street Chronicles.

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Last minute link: Camden Crazies gives us colorful charts showing how various Orioles do with pitches thrown in various zones.

Base Hits: Oriole FanFest, Anita is No More and the Miguel Tejada Domino Effect

Oriole FanFest was this past Saturday and many in the blogosphere attended. I am jealous. Here's the links to the recaps:

BrowserMetrics - Baltimore Oriole FanFest 2010
Camden Crazies - Oriole FanFest Epilogue
Oriole Post - FanFest Reaction
Dreaming in the Dark - Oriole FanFest
Baltimore Sports Report - Audioblog: O's FanFest Reaction
Camden Chat - FanFest 2010: I'm Feeling Pumped!
Mr. Irrelevant - O's Stars Turn FanFest into FashionFest

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Via DCRTV.com, Anita Marks is out at "The Fan 105.7" in Baltimore.

I never found Scott (Garceau) & Anita particularly knowledgeable (if fact, I though Scott was always kind of a knee-jerk douche) but they were entertaining together and did good interviews with the Oriole players.

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Good news on the Sarasota front as BallparkDigest.com reports that the Sarasotan citizen's groups that have filed a lawsuit to block renovations to Ed Smith Stadium are already looking for a graceful way out of this confrontation.

Regarding the lawsuit that blocked the sale of bonds to fund the renovations:

Perhaps sensing that they overreached, Sarasota Citizens for Responsible Government and Citizens for Sunshine have offered a compromise of sorts to Sarasota County...

Such silliness. County officials are confident they'll win a lawsuit...

Given that the group is already offering to settle the suit, less than a month after it was filed, indicates the group isn't totally confident in their ability to prevail in court.

While the holdup on renovations means the Orioles could walk away from their 30-year lease, it doesn't seem like that's a likely outcome.

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The Wayward O presents O's Fights, Part 2! This time, Aubrey vs. Melmo.

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Some more Miguel Tejada speculation...

How will the roster shake out now that Tejada, a guy who has played in 158 games for each of the last two seasons, has joined the team? There is no longer any room for Ty Wigginton at third base and Garret Atkins (who made Wiggy redundant when he joined the club and now, with Tejada, doubly so) will get the bulk of the time at first base. DH is crowded with Luke Scott and (when making room for Felix Pie in left) Nolan Reimold sharing the duties. Will the Orioles want to pay Wiggy $3.5 million to be primarily a bench player? When Michael Aubrey, Ryne Hughes, Scott Moore or (eventually) Brandon Snyder would provide cheaper and possibly better options, I can't see it. Wigginton is likely to get unloaded during Spring Training for spare parts or a PTBNL.

I re-ran my WAR spreadsheet...adding Tejada get the O's from 80 wins to 80.5. He doesn't move the needle as much as you might expect.

Many O's fans are excited about Tejada's return. I'm fairly neutral given the short contract. But if you pushed me, I would lean more to the side of Stacey's point of view that she lays out nicely over at Camden Chat.

I recognize that the Orioles needed to obtain an corner infielder for 2010. But in signing two, neither of which are really a part of the Orioles future, is doing just what I said at FanFest: it's taking at-bats away from young players who, while perhaps a long shot, might be a part of that future. We don't necessarily know what those guys will bring us. Miggi and Atkins? We pretty much know.

The Crystal Ball '10: Miguel Tejada

I was going to do a Crystal Ball on Ty Wigginton this week. That seems like a waste of time now.

Break out your old Tejada jersey. You know you still have it.

Since every one else has weighed in on this deal over the weekend, I guess I will too. I am on record that I saw no need to bring in anybody else to play third base this season. I thought there were internal options that could have held down the fort until top 3B prospect Josh Bell was ready to take over sometime this season. But if they were going to pick someone up , I suppose that Miguel Tejada was the most complete third baseman left on the market. He can still hit a little and he should be able to play above average defense. It's not a bunch of money and it's only for one season. There is no bad 1-year contract really, the money isn't bad and if Bell is really, really ready, the team won't let Tejada won't block him.

Tejada had a .313/.340/.455 line (14 HR, 46 2B) for Houston last year which gives him a .799 OPS, very close to what he had for Baltimore in 2007. That's a pretty good bat for a shortstop, not so much for a third baseman. Coming back to the stronger league, CHONE projects him at .767 OPS which seems reasonable. That production would have put him squarely in the middle of all MLB third baseman and light years ahead of Melvin Mora's .679 OPS from a year ago. Tejada will hit in the .290-.300 range, hit double digit homers and 30+ doubles. And in case you forgot, he'll swing at anything loosely near the plate.

How will the glove play? Last year, Tejada was one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball according to UZR and no team was looking to sign him as a shortstop for 2010. His range is diminished and his strong arm is still occasionally erratic. I would guess that he will not embarrass himself at third but I don't think he will be even average.

Was he worth bringing back to Baltimore? It depends on your goal. He will improve the team for 2010. I just hope that The Warehouse keeps its eye on the ball and trades Tejada if Josh Bell starts destroying the International League.


Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

Base Hits: Undervalued Pitchers, The Big Picture and News About Third Basemen

I wanted to highlight this article on FanGraphs.com if for no other reason that I also feel that Brad Bergesen is/was vastly undervalued and that Bryan Smith laid out his value far better than I ever have. I'm looking forward to the rest of his series on slider/sinkerball pitchers.

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Brandon Oland writes that he is skeptical (at best) about the Orioles' rebuilding process in the snarkiest tone he can muster.

But allow me to state that Brandon has no idea what he is talking about.

Example:

The players (Andy MacPhail) brought in are not improvements over the players he traded away last year.



Garrett Atkins is not half the slugger Aubrey Huff is.

Oh, he's definitely half the slugger. He'd only have to slug .200 to be half the slugger that Huff is today.

Mike Gonzalez is not an improvement over George Sherrill.

Oh, yes he is. Just wait.

Kevin Millwood is likely to be the opening day starting pitcher, which means the Orioles will be turning to a right-hander the pitching-starved Texas Rangers were eager to dump.

Well, this is kind of true but the Rangers were willing to part with Millwood because they are cash starved way more than they are pitching starved.

What Brandon fails to pick up on here is the function of these players. Atkins is a place-holder until Brandon Snyder and/or Josh Bell arrive from Norfolk. Sherrill needed to be replaced (you can argue if a free agent closer was the way to go...) because he was traded away for the aforementioned Bell. Millwood is here for one season to buy time for Jake Arrieta and Zack Britton and perhaps provide some steadiness to a rotation that will feature young hurlers Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Brad Bergesen.

These players were not signed to compete with the Yankees in 2010; they are here to warm seats for the kids who may be able to contend.

Now, I wouldn't expect every casual fan to understand this or know Baltimore's farm system. But then there's this statement:

I’m sure Fan Fest autograph seekers will be eager to meet Orioles stars Brian Roberts, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis.

But aside from them, what’s left to be excited about? Not much.

Except for Matt Wieters. And Nolan Reimold. Or Matusz. Or Tillman. Or Bergesen or Luke Scott.

Get out to the Yard, Brandon. There's baseball stuff happening out there.

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As if in response to Brandon Oland himself, MASN's Steve Melewski reminds panicky fans to keep the big picture in mind. Then he paints it for them. Well done!

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And the Orioles' rebuilding is being noticed. The Boston Herald took an in-depth look at MacPhail's handiwork and the prospect of a bright future at Camden Yards.

Matusz will be joined by right-hander Brad Bergesen, who was having an outstanding rookie year before being felled by a line drive off the shin, as well as righty Chris Tillman. Top prospect Jake Arrieta, another righty, waits in the wings.

“They’re coming,” one rival team executive said. “And they’re legit.”...

Add it all together, and the Orioles may be competitive a lot sooner than people think.

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Phil Rogers of The Chicago Tribune says that the Orioles are talking to free agent 3B Joe Crede and that if they sign hime, it could mean that Ty Wigginton or Garrett Atkins could be moved if Crede joins the team.

Given that Josh Bell is pretty close to the majors, I like the idea of taking a chance on Crede. His defense is stellar and if he's healthy, he helps the team a lot. I can't imagine the O's would move Atkins (although stranger things have happened) so I would think that Wigginton would be shipped off to the Nationall League for some relief pitching depth.

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Dempsey's Army wishes Brooks Robinson a speedy recovery from his abdominal surgery. Get well, Brooks!

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Kudos to Miguel Tejada for helping with the relief efforts in Haiti. Whatever you have to say about Miggy's Baltimore stay, you have to admire a guy putting something on the line to help with the tragic devastation in that country.

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OK Le Batard, I get the point of your fictional steroid apology. But did you have to use Cal Ripken in it? Don't Baltimore fans suffer enough? Next time, use Tony Gwynn.

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I should mention the Oriole FanFest coming up this weekend:

Over 60 current, future and former Orioles players and coaches will participate in the team's 2010 FanFest event at the Baltimore Convention Center next Saturday, January 23. Presented by the Sarasota Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2010 FanFest will feature autograph sessions and question and answer forums as part of a day-long celebration of baseball that will also include clinics, exhibits and interactive games. The event will be held from 11:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., with early entry for Orioles Season Plan Holders to begin at 10:00 a.m.

Current and future players scheduled to attend include MATT ALBERS, ROBERT ANDINO, GARRETT ATKINS, MICHAEL AUBREY, JOSH BELL, BRAD BERGESEN, JASON BERKEN, ALBERTO CASTILLO, BRANDON ERBE, MICHAEL GONZALEZ, JEREMY GUTHRIE, DAVID HERNANDEZ, RHYNE HUGHES, JIM JOHNSON, ADAM JONES, NICK MARKAKIS, BRIAN MATUSZ, CLA MEREDITH, KAM MICKOLIO, KEVIN MILLWOOD, LOU MONTANEZ, TROY PATTON, FELIX PIE, NOLAN REIMOLD, BRIAN ROBERTS, DENNIS SARFATE, LUKE SCOTT, BRANDON SNYDER, CHORYE SPOONE, CRAIG TATUM, CHRIS TILLMAN, JUSTIN TURNER, MATT WIETERS and TY WIGGINTON.

Orioles Manager DAVE TREMBLEY and 2010 coaches TERRY CROWLEY, JEFF DATZ, ALAN DUNN, RICK KRANITZ, JUAN SAMUEL and JOHN SHELBY will also participate.

Former Orioles PAUL BLAIR, MIKE BORDICK, DON BUFORD, AL BUMBRY, MIKE CUELLAR, RICK DEMPSEY, KEN DIXON, JOE DURHAM, TODD FROHWIRTH, DICK HALL, RON HANSEN, CHRIS HOILES, BILL HUNTER, SCOTT McGREGOR, JOHN MILLER, TIM NORDBROOK, JOE ORSULAK, JIM PALMER, BOOG POWELL, GARY ROENICKE, LARRY SHEETS, NATE SNELL, BJ SURHOFF and FRED VALENTINE and former coach JIMMY WILLIAMS are all expected to attend.

Rick Dempsey and Larry Sheets in the same room? I might faint if I was there...

Alas, I will be unable to make it living in Atlanta and all. Anyway, I've already been to one FanFest this offseason.

Go out and support the team, it sounds like fun. Say hi to Brandon Oland for me.