Alfredo Simon: Rocket Launcher

Early last month, spurred on by a Twitter discussion with Dan from Camden Crazies, I wrote a post about Alfredo Simon and tried to figure out what kind of pitcher he really was. Dan did the same. What did we learn?

I learned that Simon is a groundball/strikeout pitcher who happens to give up a lot of home runs. (With as many homers as he gave up,I had assumed he was more of a groundball pitcher.) Dan thought that Simon's HR rate was a more a product of bad luck than his true tendencies. I disagreed, started writing a follow up, got distracted and never finished it up.

Less than a month, three homers and yet another Twitter argument with Dan later, here's a closer look at the home runs given up by  Alfredo Simon this season, minus the homer he surrendered last night. From HitTrackerOnline.com:

Using Hit Tracker's classifications, of the 8 homers surrendered, 4 were No Doubts, 1 was a Plenty, 2 we Just Enoughs and one was a Plenty but Lucky. Now, the Lucky home runs are going to happen to every pitcher but even if we take that one away, that's still a lot of home runs.

Dan has stated that, with a home run per fly ball rate of 20%, Simon's rate of giving up home runs is unsustainable and that he will regress more to the mean. My contention is that while he may not sustain a 20% rate, he may be a guy who has a HR/FB rate that sits in the high teens because he may be an outlier. Why do I say that?

I agree with Dan in general that a guy with a ground ball rate approaching 50% and a decent strikeout rate is not likely to give up a lot of home runs. However, given the data from Hit Tracker, it appears that Simon's home run rate is not just a product of bad luck alone...he's really getting hit.

Secondly, he doesn't give up a lot of flyballs being a groundball pitcher, so each home run he gives up moves the needle more than it normally would. For example, he has given up 45 fly ball and 9 homers for  a 20% HR/FB rate. Take away the "lucky" shot he gave up to Paul Konerko and that's at 17.8%. That's a 2.2% move on one homer. (But it's still a really high percentage, even if it's not 20%)

Thirdly, most guys who give up home runs at his rate don't get to hang around long enough to maintain a 20% home run rate; they get released. Or sent back to AAA. Simon remains based on his strong start and the fact that the Orioles aren't contending anyway.

I think Simon is an outlier: a groundball pitcher who gives up a bunch of home runs on the occasions that the opposing batters happen to get the ball in the air.

I went back and looked at Pitch FX data and watched video of every home run Simon gave up this year.
Simon has given up 8 of his 9 homers to right handed hitters. Four of the nine homers were on balls in the upper quarter of the strikezone. Seven of them were balls in the upper half of the strikezone. Seven of them were also fastballs.

It's like this: Simon, while having good groundball tendencies, has very hittable stuff up in the zone. And when it gets hit, by a righthanded hitter, up in the zone, the odds are pretty good that it will end up in the seats.

Now this doesn't mean that Simon can't be a decent middle reliever. The real troubling thing about Simon has been his walk rate this season. A reliever with a decent walk rate who is homer prone can still be effective. Combining a penchant for long flies with a 4.14 BB/9 is not the recipe for success.

But make no mistake, the homers will continue, with a HR/FB rate in the high teens or more. The only remedy for it could be improved control.

Alfredo Simon: Who Are You Anyway?

I got into a Twitter discussion with Dan from Camden Crazies last night about what kind of pitcher Alfredo Simon was and realized I was really making assumptions without looking at the data. I have been dismissive of Simon throughout his Oriole career and never really took him seriously. So lets take a closer look at Mr. Simon.

Batted ball data is incomplete for Simon over his minor league career but looking at the numbers show the following:

                    GB%   LD%   FB%   IFF%  HR/F
Simon (Minors)     48.7  11.8  28.9   12.9   9.1

Now, his strikeout and walk rate for his 9 year minor league career.

                  BB/9   K/9   K/BB  HR/9    
Simon (Minors)    3.2    6.9   2.17  0.9

Simon was signed out of the Dominican Republic at the age of 18 by the Phillies back in 1999. He bounced around a bit playing in the Giants and Ranger organization and the Mexican League before joining the Orioles and making his major league debut in September 2008.

Simon was mostly a starter during his minor league career but did make occasional appearance out of the bullpen. He demonstrated a good ability to induce ground balls and while his strikeout rate and control were not great, he did produce a good K/BB ratio of more than 2 to 1. His home run per fly ball rate was fair.

But despite decent peripherals, Simon gave up a lot of hits, 9.4 per 9 and a career WHIP in the minors of 1.39. When batters hit him, they were hitting him hard. All grounders are not created equal and to support that kind of WHIP when nearly half the balls you allow in play are grounders, a good portion must be sharply hit.

In his limited time in the majors:

                 BB/9    K/9   K/BB   HR/9   GB%   LD%   FB%   HR/F
Simon (Majors)   3.51   6.07   1.73   2.40  48.9  16.3  34.7   22.7

Firstly, I am shocked the he has been able to keep almost exactly the same ground ball rate that he had in the minors. Dan said that he was a ground ball pitcher and I completely missed that while watching him. (Probably because of what I am going to talk about next...) He has also maintained a respectable strikeout rate.

However, his command has slipped and his walks have creeped up, especially this season. He no longer has a 2 to 1 K/BB ratio. He's also giving up more liners and, especially, fly balls as his infield fly rate has diminished. And when batters get the ball in the air, it goes a long way. Every five times Simon allows a fly ball, one leaves the yard. (And he's on his way to once every four times.)

So the bottom line with Simon is this: some nights he's going to strike guys out, allow a walk and get grounders to save the game and others he's going to give up a walk or two and then allow a big home run. That's who he is.

Can he be a closer? Sure, in my mind. The closer does not have to be your best pitcher out of the pen and Simon can probably get by (and he has made it through most of the season in that role). And if he could drop the walk rate a bit, he could probably be a solid closer. But he's always going to give up homers which will probably put him on the wrong side of the Julio Lugo line.


edit: Our Twitter conversation spawned a post on Dan's site too. I have to admit that he was right about the ground ball rate. The homers? I don't think that's bad luck. More to come on that front...

The Roster-Go-Round Revisited

Lots of changes on the active roster in the past week and a half. Time to step back and take a closer look.

Justin Turner DFA'd, Claimed by the Mets

Turner was removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Scott Moore and is no longer an Oriole as the Mets claimed him off waivers. I liked Turner a lot. He was probably never going to be a regular but I thought he could have been a solid utility player in a year or two, kind of a Mike Fontenot type. (He really couldn't be any worse than the 2010 version of Julio Lugo...) He still had value but not a ton of it and he's probably more of an NL player anyhow. Good luck to Red.

Scott Moore Recalled from Norfolk

I like Moore a lot and I wish Dave Trembley would find a way to get him in the lineup on a regular basis. Moore is patient at the plate, has some pop in the bat and can play all over the infield (with varying results). Only protecting Garrett Atkins' ego will keep him on the bench at this point. If you're going to bat Lugo 2nd, there's no reason not to put Moore there every now and then.

Koji Uehara Placed on 15-Day DL

Oh, Koji. Back on the DL yet again. Seemingly, he'll never be healthy but Uehara wasn't really a bad signing. Why? According to FanGraphs, Koji has been so good when he's actually been on the field that he has provided $7.9 million in value in terms of WAR over the past two seasons. The Orioles are paying him $10 million so he still has a shot at fully living up to the contract if he gets back on the field. He showed he was able to compete in the American League so he was definitely worth a shot.

Alfredo Simon Placed on 15-day DL

Simon shows you how low the bar is to close in the majors. Don't let his 2.92 ERA fool you, he is walking more than 5 per 9 innings while only striking out 7 per 9. His FIP is 4.49 (which is an improvement; he hasn't posted a FIP below 5.00 since 2005) but he's been adequate "closing out" games. The hamstring should not keep him out long.

Frank Mata Recalled from Norfolk

Mata is having a good season in AAA and it's legit. His FIP in Norfolk is 3.15. Mata seems like the kind of guy who will get lit up in Baltimore though. He needs to miss more bats and I don't think he will strike out major leaguers at a 6 K/9 rate like he has in AAA. We shall see.

Mike Gonzalez Transferred to 60-day DL

I don't think Gonzalez was going to return before mid-June anyway but he's really hurt. I liked the signing (and maybe still do) but missing half a season is going to make it hard for the O's to get a good return on the investment.

Alberto Castillo Recalled from Norfolk

He's baa-aaack. Can he keep the ball in the park? If he can, the rest of his peripherals look great. If he can't....well, the Orioles don't seem to take him very seriously anyway and he'll be back to Norfolk.

Oriole Invite 12 Non-Roster Players to Spring Training

Some thoughts on the 12 non-roster invitees:

Scott Moore: I've been a fan of Moore's for awhile. Moore came over from the Cubs in the Steve Trachsel trade but due to various injuries (most recently his thumb) he only played in 82 games in 2008 and 32 games in 2009. I like giving a healthy Scott Moore a shot to play third for Baltimore in 2010 than signing Joe Crede or Miguel Tejada. The problem is his health and only the Orioles have a good idea if he's healthy enough to compete.

Chris George and Mike Hinckley: George is a former 1998 1st round draft pick of the Royals who hasn't had any success on any level since 2004.

Hinckley is a castoff from the Nationals who walks nearly as many as he strikes out.

Look for these lefties to pitch a lot of meaningless innings.

Jake Arrieta: I cannot imagine Arrieta starting the season in Baltimore but you never know. I expect him to start the year in Norfolk but a torrid spring could change some minds.

Josh Perrault: This righty reliever in the pitcher most likely to go north with the team. Perrault mowed them down in Bowie and Norfolk but is a bit of a flyball pitcher.

Alfredo Simon: NOOOO! NOOOOOOO! Simon shouldn't have made the team last season. I'll repeat my killer Simon stat...Simon has not posted an ERA under 6.00 at any level since 2005.

Frank Mata: A wild reliever who has never pitched above AA. Spring Training roster filler.

Ross Wolf: Wolf had a good, not great season at AAA Norfolk in 2009. It's hard to see him pitching well enough to make the club but he's a groundball specialist and that may serve him well.

Michael Hernandez, Caleb Joseph and Chad Moeller: As regular readers may know, I am always fascinated by the annual competition for backup catcher during Spring Training and spend an inordinate amount of time commenting on it. The job is wide open and along with Craig Tatum, these guys are the leading candidates.

Michel Hernandez is a career minor leaguer with a few cups of coffee in the bigs. He has a decent defensive rep and hits lefty pitching well.

Chad Moeller probably has the inside track given his good work last season. He's all catcher, no hitter.

Craig Tatum (who is on the 40-man roster) has a very good defensive rep and has show flashes of capable hitting in the minors.

Caleb Joseph is a top prospect in the Oriole farm system. He's probably here to get some work in with higher level players but there's always a chance...

Jeff Salazar: Salazar is a light-hitting minor league outfielder. Baltimore already has 5 outfielders. Salazar will be the official "bus rider" for Spring Training playing many games in Jupiter and Port St. Lucie and few in Sarasota.

Base Hits: The Offseason Begins, Sarasota Hits a Snag and the Strange Case of Vito Fabrizio.

The Oriole designated a few players for assignment this week and three opted for free agency. Farewell to Guillermo Rodriguez and Jeff Fiorentino. Rodriguez will continue his journeyman career elsewhere. I think Fiorentino would make a nice 4th outfielder in the National League. I don't think he's any worse than a lot of bench players in that league.

Rich Hill seems to be open to returning to the Orioles and the Orioles seem to be willing to give him another shot. As long as that shot starts in Norfolk, I would be fine with that.

Unfortunately, Alfredo Simon accepted his assignment to Norfolk.

*****

A potential snag in Sarasota? Last week, I mentioned that citizens who live near Ed Smith Stadium were concerned about pollution at the site of the complex. There has been more light shed on that situation but there is a concern that those questions may delay funding for the stadium renovation and pollution clean up. Could this jeopardize Baltimore's move to Sarasota? Stay tuned...

*****

Way back in September, I highlighted some top performances by player in the low minors of the Oriole farm system. I wondered who on Earth Bluefield pitcher Vito Fabrizio was and where he came from. Recently, a commenter provided some information. Kepp in mind, it's from an anonymous commenter and I cannot verify this information but I wanted to share it anyway.

ok this is the story on frabizio... he did not graduate high school in 08 he was a high level prospect as both a short stop and an outfielder the orioles found his spot and that was on the mound ... he is a low 90s guy with a big league curve ball and a plus plus change up he throws 4 pitches for a strike .. he was not able to be drafted because of high school.. he got 8th round money as a free agent with no high school diploma witch is unheard of .. he is legit . he knows how to pitch and the boy can do it well .

*****

Roch Kubatko was venting over at School of Rock on MASN.com and said one thing that struck me as odd...

Case in point: The MLB.com story (not produced by beat writer Spencer Fordin) with the headline "O's hope to re-sign two free agents"

I've read it twice and can't find where the Orioles are expressing their desire to bring back reliever Danys Baez. For whatever reason, he's lumped in with Mark Hendrickson, perhaps causing the confusion. But all we have is Baez's agent stating that his client has "very much enjoyed his time with the organization and would certainly entertain the prospect of returning."

Roch is right, the headline is misleading. However, by pointing out that the article was not produced by regular beat writer Spencer Fordin, he implies that the writer of the article jumps to incorrect conclusions. But that's not how it works. MLB.com writers submit the stories but do not write the actual headlines. The story itself is consistent and factual but the headline is misleading..which is not the writer's fault.

It is my understanding that this is how most newspapers work too...given Roch Kubatko's history at The Baltimore Sun, you would think he might have known that.

Just seemed an odd thing to call someone out on.

Or maybe he was just venting too hard.

*****

So, I went to do some research on the Hawaiian Winter Baseball league but could find nothing. That's because there is not one!

I completely missed this but according to this article from Baseball Prospectus last winter, the league has folded.

I guess after the Hawaiians saw Matt Wieters last winter, that normal prospects would just not do.